2023 Picks, Week 12

Last year on Thanksgiving, there were two types of football being played.  The NFL, of course, and the World Cup.  FOX had Brazil-Serbia going up against the Bills-Cowboys game on CBS, then had Giants-Cowboys.  Then the USA-England game was on Black Friday.  This year, of course, there's no soccer, and the NFL is trying its own Black Friday game, Jets-Dolphins, giving us six national broadcasts on Thanksgiving weekend!

Thanksgiving weekend, as many of you know, is the one exception I make when it comes to posting the football picks.  With four games being played before Sunday, I think it's important that I don't leave out a quarter of the week's schedule.  So, yes, back-to-back posts that are nothing but NFL picks.

Packers (4-6) at Lions (8-2): Detroit-The craziest thing about this year's Thanksgiving slate is that the best team playing might actually be the Lions.  When was the last time that happened?!  Detroit had that incredible comeback against the Bears on Sunday and is currently the No. 2 seed in the NFC.  It was last Thanksgiving when this all started, too.  The Bills kicked a last-second field goal to win that game 28-25.  The Lions are 13-3 since then.  Make that 14-3.

Commanders (4-7) at Cowboys (7-3): Dallas-I feel like I say the same thing about Dallas every week.  The Cowboys are one of the most talented teams in football, and there are times when they really play like it.  But, because of those times when they don't, they're staring at a wild card and going on the road in the playoffs.  Their schedule down the stretch is brutal, so they need to just keep winning and hope the Eagles lose somewhere along the line.

49ers (7-3) at Seahawks (6-4): San Francisco-Even though the Seahawks lost to the Rams on Sunday, this one is for first place in the NFC West.  Except that loss makes this game much bigger for Seattle.  Because they'll either be tied (albeit with the tiebreaker) or two games back.  That's a huge difference.  And their wild card position will become a lot more precarious if they don't win.  Their next three games are at Dallas, at San Francisco, Philadelphia.  So, yeah, that loss was bad.

Dolphins (7-3) at Jets (4-6): Miami-It appears the Jets have finally given up on Zach Wilson.  He's been dropped all the way to QB3 for the NFL's first-ever Black Friday matchup.  The Jets were 3-3 and coming off a win over the Eagles heading into their bye.  Since then, they're 1-3 and scored a total of 37 points.  Even without Wilson under center, things might not go much better against Miami.

Saints (5-5) at Falcons (4-6): Atlanta-Nobody in the NFC South can seem to beat anyone else.  Which makes division games that much more important.  And, if the Falcons win here, they'll be tied with the Saints atop the division (it'll be a three-way tie if Atlanta and Tampa Bay both win).  We'll most likely only see the division winner in the playoffs (where they'll have to play Dallas).  I think the Falcons force that tie and set up an exciting final six weeks.

Steelers (6-4) at Bengals (5-5): Pittsburgh-Mike Tomlin fired his offensive coordinator earlier this week, a move that Steeler Nation met with great enthusiasm.  A 13-10 loss to the Browns on Sunday was the last straw.  Now they play a second straight division road game in the State of Ohio.  The Bengals will have a long road the rest of the way without Joe Burrow.  Pittsburgh needs to take advantage to make sure they stay ahead of Cincinnati.

Panthers (1-9) at Titans (3-7): Carolina-There's been some chatter about Frank Reich being on the hot seat, which seems crazy to me.  Sure, his first year in Carolina hasn't gone well, but blowing the whole thing up after one season with a new head coach and rookie quarterback seems a bit excessive.  The coach who should be on the hot seat is Mike Vrabel.  Because, frankly, things are going worse in Tennessee than they are in Carolina.

Buccaneers (4-6) at Colts (5-5): Tampa Bay-You really could flip a coin with this one.  Because it really does seem like it'll depend on which Bucs team shows up and which Colts team shows up.  Tampa Bay was 3-1 before losing five out of six.  Indianapolis was 3-5 before winning two straight, including a 10-6 victory over New England in Frankfurt that wasn't exactly an advertisement of the product for the German fans.  I'll go with Tampa here, but, really, like I said, it's pretty much a coin flip.

Patriots (2-8) at Giants (3-8): Giants-Under normal circumstances, this would be a marquee game.  Instead, it's a regional 1:00 game between last-place teams who'll be starting backup quarterbacks.  Well, the Patriots might not be starting their backup.  Belichick "hasn't decided" who'll start yet.  As for the Giants, they aren't just coming off a win.  They're coming off a road win!  Sure, they're 2-0 against Washington and 1-8 against the rest of the NFL, and sure one of the Patriots' two wins came at MetLife Stadium.  If the Giants are the less-bad team here, they'll be on a winning streak!

Jaguars (7-3) at Texans (6-4): Jacksonville-Who would've thought that Jacksonville and Houston would both be in playoff position in Week 12?  The Texans will actually take over first place AND have a season sweep of Jacksonville if they take this one.  So, it's huge for the Jaguars.  They'll snap Houston's three-game winning streak and maintain their spot atop the AFC South.

Browns (7-3) at Broncos (5-5): Denver-Denver is suddenly the hottest team in football and very much in the AFC playoff race.  The Broncos have won four straight, with three of those victories coming late by a combined five points (with a blowout in Kansas City thrown in).  The Browns have a three-game winning streak of their own and are currently the top wild card team in the AFC.  Something's gotta give here.  Since the game's in Denver, I'm saying it's the Broncos' winning streak that continues.

Rams (4-6) at Cardinals (2-9): Rams-Was it pretty?  No.  Was it a win?  Yes.  And beating the Seahawks on Sunday kept the Rams relevant in the playoff discussion, too.  Let's be honest here.  They aren't as good as the three teams currently occupying the three wild card spots.  Dallas and Seattle have tough schedules coming up, though, so there's a chance for a team like the Rams to go on a run and sneak in.  They beat the Cardinals and the Seahawks lose to the 49ers, and suddenly they're only a game behind Seattle.

Chiefs (7-3) at Raiders (5-6): Kansas City-If not for the drops in the fourth quarter, Kansas City would've won the Super Bowl rematch and made the first of what they hope will be two trips to Las Vegas this season sitting at 8-2.  They still comfortably lead the AFC West, but the playoff seeds are a lot more jumbled now.  The Raiders suffered their first loss since the coaching change on Sunday, but played well against the Dolphins.  We'll see how they look against the Chiefs.

Bills (6-5) at Eagles (9-1): Philadelphia-Buffalo got a much-needed win over the Jets on Sunday and actually had the type of performance people were expecting from the Bills' offense.  They needed it, too.  Because they could NOT go into Philadelphia on a three-game losing streak.  Had that happened, the Eagles would've made it four.  How can you not say the Eagles are the best team in the league right now after what they did in the second half on Monday night?

Ravens (8-3) at Chargers (4-6): Baltimore-Want to know who the biggest winner was on Monday night?  It wasn't the Eagles.  It was the Ravens.  With the Kansas City loss, Baltimore moved into the No. 1 spot in the AFC.  It's only a half-game, of course, and the Ravens haven't had their bye yet, but they're still the ones in the driver's seat.  The Chargers have dropped back-to-back three-point games, but won two straight in primetime before that.  So, that likely means they'll give the Ravens a challenge.  I think Baltimore holds off that challenge, though.

Bears (3-8) at Vikings (6-5): Minnesota-Despite the loss in Denver on Sunday night, the Vikings are still holding down the final NFC wild card spot.  And their record in one-possession games over the past two seasons really is remarkable.  I'm expecting another one-score game against a Bears team that looked like it might pull the upset in Detroit.  If they actually do it in Minnesota, the Vikings' playoff position suddenly won't feel so comfortable.

Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 102-62