2023 Picks, Week 11

There are no more international games on the NFL schedule this season, but there is one international game of significance this weekend--the Grey Cup.  More on that later.  As for what's happening on this side of the border, this is when things start to get serious.  Thanksgiving is when everyone starts paying attention to the playoff standings.  Although, if you've already taken a look, you'll see some surprises.  Which should set us up for a pretty good stretch run.

I'd also be willing to bet a lot will change between now and the end of the season, too.  It always does.  There's always that one team that goes on a run and ends up sneaking into a wild card spot.  And there's always that team that goes the other way.  Who will they be?

Thursday Night: Baltimore (Win)

Steelers (6-3) at Browns (6-3): Pittsburgh-The AFC North is so tight that every division game is doubly important.  The Ravens won on Thursday night, so the winner won't have a chance to move into first place.  They will both have an opportunity to solidify their standing as the top wild card team, though.  The Steelers beat the Browns on a Monday night in Week 2, and I like them to finish off the sweep against a Cleveland team that'll have to figure out the rest of the season without DeShaun Watson.

Bears (3-7) at Lions (7-2): Detroit-Three of Detroit's next four are against division rivals, and the Lions actually have five NFC North games remaining.  So, they've really got a chance to put the division away within the next few weeks.  Which is a crazy thing to be saying about the Lions, who'll actually be favored in their annual Thanksgiving game.  They'll go into that with an 8-2 record, and could even be tied with the Eagles for the best record in the NFC pending the result of the Monday night game.

Chargers (4-5) at Packers (3-6): Chargers-Let's be really honest about something.  It's been a long season in Green Bay.  The Packers have played some close ones (seemingly every week), but usually seem to come out on the wrong side of the result.  The Chargers also find themselves under .500, yet are still right in the thick of the jumbled AFC playoff race.  They lost that shootout against the Lions last week, so putting up points in Lambeau shouldn't be a problem.

Raiders (5-5) at Dolphins (6-3): Miami-Miami is having one of the weirdest seasons!  The Dolphins have played three games against a team with a winning record...and are 0-3 in those games.  Yet, they're in first place because of the Bills' struggles.  This week, they play a Raiders team that's 2-0 since the coaching change.  That should come with a little bit of an asterisk, though.  They beat both New York teams at home.  This will be Antonio Pierce's first real test.  And we'll see whether a team that enters the game at .500 goes on the undefeated side or the winless side of the Dolphins' ledger.

Giants (2-8) at Commanders (4-6): Washington-One of the Giants' wins this season came in their first meeting with the Commanders.  Their offense didn't exactly set the world on fire in that game.  It was 14-7.  Since then, the Giants have scored 10, 6 and 17.  And, frankly, I don't see it getting any better this season.  Especially since they don't have a quarterback.  Washington gets the season split.

Cowboys (6-3) at Panthers (1-8): Dallas-In Week 3, the Cowboys went into Arizona and lost to the Cardinals, arguably the worst team in the league.  Eight weeks later, they visit the team with the worst record in the league.  They won't get similarly caught off guard.  They've scored 43 and 49 points in their last two games against opponents who aren't the Eagles.  Expect them to put up plenty of points against Carolina, too.

Titans (3-6) at Jaguars (6-3): Jacksonville-Mike Vrabel's days may be numbered in Nashville.  They'll let him make it through the season.  I just have a feeling this'll be it.  Even with Derrick Henry, they've had trouble scoring all year.  Jacksonville's defense will almost certainly make sure that's an issue again this week.  The Jaguars took one on the chin against the 49ers, but San Francisco's a much different caliber opponent.

Cardinals (2-8) at Texans (5-4): Houston-When the schedule came out, the prevailing thought was that this game might help decide who gets the No. 1 pick in the Draft.  Well, that's not the case at all!  The Texans, in fact, currently hold the 7-seed in the AFC...and they're only a game behind Jacksonville in the division!  They're legit contenders who we'll have to keep an eye on over the season's final six weeks.  The Cardinals, meanwhile, actually are in the mix for the No. 1 pick.

Buccaneers (4-5) at 49ers (6-3): San Francisco-After three straight losses and a bye, the 49ers actually looked like the team from the first five games of the season last week.  They absolutely dominated Jacksonville.  Tampa Bay had a similarly strong showing against the Titans that has them sitting within a half-game of the first-place Saints.  The 49ers, however, have that huge Thanksgiving night matchup with the Seahawks.  They actually play two of their next three after this one against Seattle (with the Eagles in between).  They can't afford a loss here.

Jets (4-5) at Bills (5-5): Buffalo-Buffalo was considered a top Super Bowl contender heading into the season, but certainly hasn't played like it.  And, frankly, the Bills only have themselves to blame for their current predicament.  Case in point: the Broncos game.  This mysterious 2023 campaign started with a Week 1 Monday night loss to the Jets when they didn't even show up in the second half.  If they lose this one (which would make it three straight losses), they can almost kiss their playoff hopes goodbye.

Seahawks (6-3) at Rams (3-6): Seattle-Seattle's biggest game of the season is coming up on Thanksgiving night.  This one is just as important.  Why?  Because it's imperative that the Seahawks go into that matchup with the 49ers at 7-3.  And the only way they can do that is by taking care of business against the Rams.

Vikings (6-4) at Broncos (4-5): Minnesota-Minnesota is suddenly the hottest team in football.  After starting 1-4, the Vikings have won five in a row and are currently sitting in a playoff position.  The Broncos have suddenly thrust themselves into the discussion, too, with back-to-back wins over the Chiefs and Bills.  Maybe Sean Payton will be able to turn this team around, after all.  It was curious that NBC didn't flex this game out, but there weren't really many options to replace it with.  And, maybe it'll turn out to be a good one like Broncos-Bills did.

Eagles (8-1) at Chiefs (7-2): Kansas City-ESPN snagged the most anticipated game of the regular season for the Monday night right before Thanksgiving.  The Super Bowl rematch between the Eagles and Chiefs, which was only made possible because of the 17th game (which is NFC East vs. AFC West this season).  I was one of many who thought they might use it to open the season, but holding it off until later in the season sure worked out.  They're currently both the No. 1 seed in their respective conference and a rematch in mid-February sure seems possible.  As for what'll happen this week, they're both coming off a bye, so no advantage there.  But the Chiefs are the home team, so I'll give them the nod because of that.

**BONUS GAME** GREY CUP
Blue Bombers (14-4) vs. Alouettes (11-7): Winnipeg-What's annoying about this year's Grey Cup is that it isn't on American TV.  This was the first year of the CFL's deal with CBS Sports Networkm but the package didn't include any playoff games.  Instead, it's only available via streaming.  The stream is free, so people can still watch it.  It's just dumb that their U.S. TV deal was only for regular season games.  Anyway, Montreal pulled off a MAJOR upset in the East Final, defeating the 16-2 Argonauts in Toronto.  Their reward was their first Grey Cup appearance since 2010, where they'll face a Winnipeg team looking for its third title in four seasons.  All credit to the Alouettes for making it here.  Beating the two best teams in the league in back-to-back weeks to claim the trophy is a very big task, though.  The Blue Bombers are building a dynasty.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-5
Overall: 95-56