2023 Picks, Week 9

As we officially hit the midway point of the season, all four AFC division leaders have the same record.  And two of those 6-2 teams--the Dolphins and Chiefs--will meet in the NFL's first-ever game in Frankfurt.  That sure worked out, didn't it?!  Another team that's 6-2 is the Lions, who are on their bye this week, but have the second-best record in the NFC and sure look like they'll be hosting a playoff game at Ford Field for the first time (although, I must correct something Joe Buck said on Monday night...there has been a playoff game there before--Super Bowl XL).

Thursday Night: Pittsburgh (Win)

Dolphins (6-2) vs. Chiefs (6-2): Kansas City-When they NFL picked this one for its first game in Frankfurt, they knew they were giving the German fans a good one.  I don't think they anticipated just how good, though.  The Frankfurt Galaxy were the only team that operated in all 15 years of NFL Europe's existence, and now the Waldstadion, site of three World Bowls, gets to host a regular season NFL game.  As for how it'll go, Miami's played a soft schedule so far, with its only two losses coming to its two best opponents--Buffalo and Philadelphia.  The Chiefs are definitely more in that class than the class of the Dolphins' other opponents.  That, and I think it's incredibly unlikely they play two duds in a row.

Vikings (4-4) at Falcons (4-4): Atlanta-Kirk Cousins is out, so the Vikings went and traded for Arizona's quarterback.  He's got a big task in front of him, keeping the momentum going for a team that's won four out of five, with only a seven-point loss to Kansas City preventing them from being 5-0 in that stretch.  Hopefully Cousins isn't out too long.  Because things will be difficult without him.  I'm not sure less than a week is enough time to get to both know the offense and prepare for Atlanta.

Cardinals (1-7) at Browns (4-3): Cleveland-Don't look now, but the Cleveland Browns are a team that looks legitimately capable of making some noise (or, at the very least, keeping things interesting).  They've played all kinds of different games in the last three weeks, too.  They beat the 49ers, then won a one-point shootout in Indianapolis before going to Seattle and almost knocking off the Seahawks.  Now they're back home to face a Cardinals team that might be the worst in the NFL.

Rams (3-5) at Packers (2-5): Rams-After losing at home to Pittsburgh, the Rams got their butts kicked in Dallas last week.  Now they're back on the road for a trip to Lambeau.  Things aren't going much better for the Packers, who've lost four straight since a one-point win over New Orleans.  So, something's gotta give here.  I think the Rams are slightly less bad, which is why they're getting the nod here in what should be a close, low-scoring game.

Commanders (3-5) at Patriots (2-6): Washington-Beating the Bills might not have been the start of a Patriots turnaround after all.  Because they turned around and lost by two touchdowns in Miami to fall to 2-6 (with their only two wins coming in division games).  Washington, meanwhile, played the Eagles close for the second time last week.  They've lost to the Giants and Bears this season, but they've also proven that they can play with teams who are better than them.  So, I really have no idea what'll happen here, since the Patriots are more like the Giants and Bears.  I'm taking the Commanders anyway, though.

Bears (2-6) at Saints (4-4): New Orleans-Three years ago, this was a playoff game.  That's the one season in every five when the Bears are randomly not terrible.  Which is what they have been since then.  And passing on Bryce Young sure looks questionable, even if Tyler Bagent has provided a nice story.  The good news is they might get a do-over with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 Draft.  As for the Saints, they moved into a first-place tie with the Falcons by beating the Colts last week.

Seahawks (5-2) at Ravens (6-2): Baltimore-For all the talk about the Chiefs and the Eagles, Baltimore seems to be the forgotten 6-2 team.  We haven't heard much about the Ravens, but they're right up there among the best teams in the league.  So is Seattle, quite frankly, and the 49ers' losing streak has actually moved the Seahawks into first place.  They can make a statement of their own if they go into Baltimore and win, but it seems far more likely the Ravens will make it four straight.

Buccaneers (3-4) at Texans (3-4): Tampa Bay-One thing about the AFC South playing the NFC South this season is that it guaranteed a certain number of wins between them, thus making their records respectable.  It feels like we've gotten AFC South vs. NFC South a lot in the past few weeks, too, which explains how the Bucs-Texans winner will be .500 on the season at the midway point.  Tampa Bay actually has a very realistic chance of winning the division.  Those chances will only increase after the Bucs move to 4-4.

Colts (3-5) at Panthers (1-6): Indianapolis-Carolina got that first win last week, beating Houston.  Now they have a very realistic chance of making it two in a row as Head Coach Frank Reich takes on his former team.  The Colts have dropped three straight, two of which weren't particularly close.  Yet they're also looking at this one as a game where they can get back on track.  It'll probably be pretty ugly.  It'll probably be low scoring.  And, for some reason, I like the Colts.

Giants (2-6) at Raiders (3-5): Giants-The last time the Giants visited the Raiders, Ben McAdoo had just taken the last step towards getting himself fired by benching Eli Manning in favor of Geno Smith, ending Eli's streak of consecutive starts.  That was their last-ever meeting in Oakland.  For their first meeting in Las Vegas, it's the Raiders who've made some changes.  Their coach and GM are gone, with former Giant Antonio Pierce stepping in as the interim head coach.  The underlying reasons for all that turmoil still exist, though.  Which is why I'm taking the Giants.

Cowboys (5-2) at Eagles (7-1): Philadelphia-Since the Giants are also playing a late game on FOX, I don't get the national game this week.  Good thing I have Red Zone!  This is obviously the biggest game on each of their schedules so far, and it could provide a huge swing in the NFC East.  They'll either be separated by just a half-game with Dallas holding the tiebreaker or the Eagles will be up by two and a half and have the tiebreaker heading into their bye.  After their bye, they have a ridiculously tough stretch that includes the rematch with the Cowboys.  They'll need the buffer that this game will provide them.

Bills (5-3) at Bengals (4-3): Buffalo-We all know what happened the last time these two were supposed to meet in Cincinnati.  The fact that Damar Hamlin hasn't just recovered from that scary scene but is back playing football truly is remarkable!  You can bet that'll be one of the big stories heading into this game, and rightfully so, but let's not forget the game's importance.  Cincinnati has won three straight after starting 1-3, while the Bills are a game behind Miami in the AFC East.  Since they're both looking at wild cards right now, that makes holding the tiebreaker that much more important.  I probably should pick Cincinnati, but I'm going with Buffalo anyway.

Chargers (3-4) at Jets (4-3): Jets-Last week's Giants-Jets game was an absolute slog, but the Jets pulled it out in overtime to move above .500 on the season.  And that win actually has them very much in the AFC playoff picture.  The Chargers jumped back into it with their victory over the Bears on Sunday night (I know it was a week ago and I shouldn't still be hung up on this, but why was that a Sunday night game?).  Anyway, they need to prove they can win on the road if they really want to be considered playoff contenders.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 78-45