The WBC Is Finally Back

Three years ago, right around this time, we were getting ready for the 2021 World Baseball Classic qualifying tournaments to begin.  Then Rudy Gobert touched some microphones, got COVID and broke sports!  Now, after COVID and lockout delays, the World Baseball Classic finally returns, six years after the most recent edition.

Mike Trout watched the final of the 2017 WBC from the stands.  He saw the United States beat Puerto Rico 8-0 for its first WBC title and vowed to be on the field the next time.  Sure enough, he kept that promise, and Trout will anchor a very strong American team that looks to defend its title.  Trout's not the only one.  After seeing the U.S. win, suddenly everybody wanted to play!  Which means U.S. Manager Mark DeRosa will have some decisions to make once the tournament gets to Miami for the championship round.

It won't be easy, though.  I'd actually hesitate to call the U.S. the favorites.  Because the team from the Dominican Republic is STACKED!  Even without an injured Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the DR's lineup is arguably the deepest in the field, and they've got better pitching than the U.S., which is why I give them the slight edge.  And let's not forget about Japan, which won Olympic gold in 2021 and will have Shohei Ohtani doing his thing, as well as a bunch of other stars from Nippon Professional Baseball.

This is also the first WBC with 20 teams.  Which means we welcome Panama back for the first time since 2009, while the Czech Republic, Great Britain and Nicaragua will all make their debuts.  That's my favorite thing about this tournament.  You'll have teams from the United States and the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico stacked with Major League All-Stars.  And you'll have the Czech Republic, a team of amateurs who all have full-time non-baseball jobs (and starred in a very entertaining series of videos).

With the expanded field brings a new format.  There are still four groups, but they're now groups of five, and every team is guaranteed four games (which means you need at least four starting pitchers).  Then, the top two in each group advance to single-elimination quarterfinals.  So there's very little margin for error.  Because those quarterfinal games, especially the two in Miami, will feature some pretty good teams!

Another important thing to note is that they're playing under 2022 Major League rules.  No pitch clock, no shift bans, no bigger bases.  I don't think it'll have much of an impact on this tournament, but I'll be very interested to see how it effects the veterans' preparations for the season when they return to Spring Training.  Although, we will have the extra inning tiebreaker rule (which, in a tournament like this, makes complete sense), as well as a mercy rule, and, since it is still Spring Training, after all, pitch count limitations.

After six years of waiting, I'm just psyched that the WBC is finally back!  It's the only international baseball tournament that includes MLB players, and we've got some great matchups right off the bat (Julio Urias vs. Jose Quintana is the pitching matchup for Mexico-Colombia).  And, while I think the Dominican Republic, the United States and Japan are the three clear favorites, I know better than to expect any of them to win.  It's baseball in March after all!

Pool A: Pool A is the most wide-open of the four.  It's being played in Taiwan, and they're the second-ranked team in the world (behind only Japan), so they might be the on paper "favorite," but I actually don't even see them getting out of the first round.  The Netherlands made the semifinals in 2017 and, I think, is the strongest team in the group (they have four starting shortstops and Wladimir Balentin, who plays in Japan, was the best hitter in the 2017 tournament).  Cuba's also got a lot to prove after a few disappointing Classics in a row.  They have active Major Leaguers on the roster for the first time, though, so we'll see if that makes a difference.  I think it will.

Italy and Panama round out the group, and it would take an eternal optimist to think either has a chance.  The game between them will be important, though, since it'll likely be to avoid having to play in the qualifying tournament for the 2027 WBC.  (I'd also like to know why the top two European teams, both of which have been in every World Baseball Classic, were put in the same group.)

Pool B: Tokyo has been one of the Asian sites at all five World Baseball Classics, and it'll host two rounds this year before the top two teams head to Miami for the semifinals.  Those top two teams could easily be Japan and South Korea.  Japan is the only team to have made the semifinals in all four previous editions, and that seems unlikely to change here.  The Koreans should be the second quarterfinalist out of Pool B, and I think that'll be a great game between them and the Dutch to advance to Miami.

Australia isn't anywhere near as good as either Japan or South Korea, but is also significantly better than both China and the Czech Republic.  So, they shouldn't have to worry about qualifying for 2027.  I don't think China will, either.  Because, as great as it is the Czechs are here, even they know they have no chance.  Their best shot at winning a game might be their matchup with China, which has played in every WBC, but is only 2-10 all-time in the tournament.

Pool C: In Arizona, we have the three North American teams, Colombia and Great Britain.  The U.S. roster is so strong that MLB All-Stars will be sitting on the bench.  But I'm not completely sold on the American pitching, and I can easily see them losing to Mexico, Canada OR Colombia (they went to extra innings against Colombia in 2017).

Colombia is the wild card here, and I can see them beating Mexico for that second quarterfinal spot (Colombia-Mexico, BTW, is the first game).  Mexico is in a very similar boat as Cuba, though.  They've actually finished last in their pool at the last two WBCs and only avoided having to qualify this year because of the tournament expansion.  Canada has Freddie Freeman, but not much else (I'm not sure why Joey Votto opted not to play), but should easily take care of Great Britain to avoid having to re-qualify.

Pool D: Every tournament has a "Group of Death," and this is it.  The Dominican Republic is the odds-on favorite, Puerto Rico has made the last two finals, and Venezuela and Israel both made the second round in 2017.  Two of them won't advance in this year's tournament.  And, really, it could be any of the four.  OK, it'll likely be Israel and one of the others that doesn't advance.  Israel had that tremendous run six years ago, then followed it up by qualifying for the Olympics.  But finishing ahead of three teams of Major League All-Stars is a lot to ask.

I honestly keep going back and forth between Puerto Rico and Venezuela as the team that joins the DR out of this pool.  They're both really good, and if one of them was playing in Phoenix instead of Miami, I'd say both of them.  But, since I can only pick one, I'm leaning towards Venezuela.  Not only do I like their lineup better, I like their pitching better.  Rounding out the group is Nicaragua, which is completely overmatched against these opponents.  I'll be shocked if they win a game.

My quarterfinal matchups are Japan vs. Cuba, Netherlands vs. South Korea, United States vs. Venezuela and Dominican Republic vs. Colombia.  They crossover for the semifinals, so I've got the United States vs. Japan and the Dominican Republic vs. the Netherlands.  And, in the final, I have the Dominican Republic beating the United States for its second World Baseball Classic championship.  They're the favorites for a reason.  Because they're the best team.  The real question is if they can go undefeated again.  Just like they did 10 years ago.  Don't be surprised if they do.