With the new schedule this season, it gives me a chance to do something a little different with the preview. I usually just go AL East, AL Central, AL West, then do the National League in the same order. So, I always end up finishing with the NL West. But this year, I'm gonna mix it up. Instead of keeping my usual order, I'm gonna go by the order in which I'll see the different divisions as they play the Yankees. Which means that, since the Giants visit Yankee Stadium on Opening Day, we're going right to the NL West!
I also think we're gonna see a changing of the guard in the NL West this season. Because it's no longer exclusively the Dodgers' domain. In fact, I don't think the Dodgers are winning the division. Not only are they not as good as they've been during this decade of dominating the division, they aren't the best team in the NL West. The Padres are!
Don't get me wrong. The Dodgers are still really good and will still likely make the playoffs. They just won't run away with the NL West. Which could actually be a good thing for them. God knows they could've used a little adversity last season. Instead, they had that historic regular season followed by a playoff flameout against their division rivals, who completely outplayed them in that Division Series, then went on to improve their team, while the Dodgers can't really make that same claim.
One of the two will win the division, and the other will likely be a wild card. The Giants tried to make the big move during the offseason, only to come up short with every free agent they went after. And what's there to say about the Rockies and Diamondbacks?
1. San Diego Padres: The San Diego Padres are a prime example of how small-market teams can spend money when and if they feel like it. Will it last? I have no idea! My guess is probably not. (The Padres are one of the targets of the proposed limitations on spending.) But their willingness to spend has made them a very formidable team. One that made the NLCS last season and enters 2023 as a definite World Series contender. Because their weaknesses are few and far between.
Only a few months after landing Juan Soto and Josh Hader, they locked up Xander Bogaerts on a seven-year deal, making their already ridiculous lineup even longer. They also get back Fernando Tatis Jr. from his 2022 odyssey that included both an injury and a PED suspension. And, now that they've signed Bogaerts to play shortstop, he moves to the outfield (and is suddenly like the fourth-best player on the team). Jake Cronenworth also moves to first because, again, the Padres have a surplus of talent. And I haven't even talked about the pitching staff yet! The top of their rotation is as good as anybody in the National League's (except for maybe the Mets and Dodgers), and their bullpen is ridiculously good!
Projected Lineup: Trent Grisham-CF, Juan Soto-LF, Manny Machado-3B, Xander Bogaerts-SS, Fernando Tatis Jr.-RF, Nelson Cruz-DH, Jake Cronenworth-1B, Ha-Seong Kim-2B, Austin Nola-C
Projected Rotation: Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Nick Martinez, Michael Wacha
Closer: Josh Hader
Projected Record: 93-69
2. Los Angeles Dodgers: This is the first time in I can't even remember that I'm not picking the Dodgers to win the NL West. But this is also the first time in quite a while that they have question marks about the lineup. Trea and Justin Turner are the latest free agents to leave, and they decided to cut ties with Cody Bellinger after a few disappointing seasons following his MVP campaign in 2019. They also lost Gavin Lux, who was supposed to be the Opening Day shortstop, for the season to an ACL injury. So, yeah, I've got some questions about their lineup.
There are no questions surrounding their starting rotation, however. Even without Walker Buehler, it should once again be the strength of the team. Clayton Kershaw is Clayton Kershaw. Julio Urias finished third in Cy Young voting last season, Tony Gonsolin was undefeated at the All*Star Break last year, and Dustin May moves back into the rotation after missing most of 2022 due to injury. And now they add Noah Syndergaard to that rotation. (Also, addition by subtraction after cutting ties with Trevor Bauer.) They still don't have a closer, which could be a problem. But they've been grooming Brusdar Graterol to move into the role, and he should be good enough that it won't be an area they need to address at the deadline. The lineup, however, will be.
Projected Lineup: Mookie Betts-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, J.D. Martinez-DH, Will Smith-C, Max Muncy-3B, Trayce Thompson-CF, Chris Taylor-LF, Miguel Vargas-2B, Miguel Rojas-SS
Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Noah Syndergaard, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May
Closer: Brusdar Graterol
Projected Record: 91-71 (Wild Card 2)
3. San Francisco Giants: You've gotta give them credit for trying. The Giants thought they'd signed Aaron Judge, only to see him stay with the Yankees thanks to Hal Steinbrenner's last-minute call. They thought they'd signed Carlos Correa, only to find out he'd failed his physical literally minutes before his introductory press conference was to start. Instead, their biggest free agent signee was Michael Conforto. No offense to Conforto, but he's not Judge or Correa.
Had they been able to land one of those two big fish, the Giants would have a realistic shot at a wild card berth. Instead, they're stuck with a middling lineup in a division with two powerhouse teams. Their pitching isn't terrible, though, so there's a chance they'll hang around the race long enough to make some trades at the deadline and maybe make a late run. They have all the makings of a .500 team, which seems like their most likely finish.
Projected Lineup: Michael Conforto-LF, Mike Yastrezmski-CF, Joc Pederson-DH, Mitch Haniger-RF, LaMonte Wade Jr.-1B, Joey Bart-C, Brandon Crawford-SS, Thairo Estrada-2B, David Villar-3B
Projected Rotation: Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling
Closer: Camilo Doval
Projected Record: 81-81
4. Colorado Rockies: In the NL East, it's three teams at the top and the Marlins and Nationals battling to stay out of the basement. In the NL West, the two teams at the bottom are the Rockies and the Diamondbacks. Except this one's not a race to the bottom. Because Colorado is significantly better than Arizona! And the Rockies just improved some more by signing Jurickson Profar, who resurrected his career in San Diego. Of course, Kris Bryant played left field for the Rockies last season, so this could see Bryant end up moving back to third base, which isn't necessary a bad thing.
Colorado actually has pretty decent starting pitching, too. It's by no means nowhere near the level of the Dodgers or Padres, but I'd take Kyle Freeland or German Marquez. Daniel Bard has struggled with Team USA in the WBC, but he's been solid as the Rockies' closer. He's 60 for 71 in save opportunities since joining the Rockies in 2020. While there likely won't be many save opportunities for him this season, it'll be a good sign if there are.
Projected Lineup: Ryan McMahon-2B, Randal Grichuk-RF, Kris Bryant-3B, C.J. Cron-1B, Charlie Blackmon-DH, Jurickson Profar-LF, Elias Diaz-C, Ezequiel Tovar-SS, Yonathan Daza-CF
Projected Rotation: Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Jose Urena, Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner
Closer: Daniel Bard
Projected Record: 72-90
5. Arizona Diamondbacks: Colombia-Mexico might've been the best game that fans at Chase Field will see this year. Because the Diamondbacks sure won't give them anything worth watching. Arizona's more likely to battle teams like Oakland and Pittsburgh for the worst record and best draft lottery odds than to battle the Padres and Dodgers for NL West supremacy. It's not that they don't have any talent. They just don't have enough of it. And the guys they do have are other teams' rejects.
If Arizona can get blast from the past seasons from the likes of Evan Longoria and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and if Alek Thomas can continue his otherworldly WBC play, they might actually be OK on the offensive end. That's a lot of variables, though. It's more likely that the Diamondbacks will live or die by their pitching. Which is fine at the top, but nowhere near good enough to be competitive in this division of heavyweights. Best case, they're around .500. Worst case, they're near 100 losses.
Projected Lineup: Ketel Marte-2B, Nick Ahmed-SS, Christian Walker-1B, Josh Rojas-DH, Evan Longoria-3B, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.-LF, Carson Kelly-C, Alek Thomas-CF, Corbin Carroll-RF
Projected Rotation: Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Madison Bumgarner, Zach Davies, Tommy Henry
Closer: Mark Melancon
Projected Record: 63-99
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