MLB 2023 (AL East)

As we move into the latter stages of the World Baseball Classic, Opening Day of the 2023 MLB season draws ever closer.  It's less than two weeks away as a matter of fact.  Which means it's time to start one of my annual traditions--the six-part MLB season preview.

I'm very curious to see how the new schedule plays out.  It's going to help some teams and it's going to hurt some others.  For example, virtually the entire AL East should benefit.  Instead of playing each other 19 times, it's only 13 now, which gives the division 120 more potential wins.  They obviously won't win them all, but with 120 additional games that aren't AL East vs. AL East, all five teams could see their win totals increase.

Last year, the AL East had three playoff teams and Baltimore was THE surprise team of 2022, finishing above .500 as Brandon Hyde earned AL Manager of the Year honors.  And why can't the Orioles do it again?  After all, all of their young talent has a year of Major League experience already under their belts, and now they'll be playing fewer games against their powerhouse division opponents.

Regardless of how many games the AL East teams play against each other and how many they play against other divisions, though, the pecking order is clear.  The Yankees made the ALCS last year before getting embarrassed by the Astros.  They got better as a result and are the team to beat in the AL East.  Toronto should be their biggest challenger, and Tampa Bay is consistently in the mix.  It's really a battle between Baltimore and Boston at the bottom of the division, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if all five teams finish .500 or better.

1. New York Yankees: The Yankees went into the offseason with one clear priority--re-sign Aaron Judge.  There was no Plan B.  Well, they did re-sign Judge to the tune of nine years and $360 million, and Hal Steinbrenner made him the first Yankee captain since Derek Jeter.  They also knew they needed another starting pitcher, so they went out and got the best one available in Carlos Rodon.  He'll start the season on the injured list.  As will so many other Yankees who were expected to be key contributors.  But I'll take that over last year, when everybody got hurt in July and August.

They do have some issues that need to be addressed.  Aaron Hicks still on the roster, and they still have three starting infielders for two spots.  I'm not sold on Clay Holmes as a championship closer, either.  Although, I'd suspect the bullpen will get sorted out well before the trade deadline.  I'm also curious to see what kind of haul they can get for Gleyber Torres, the only tradeable piece in that Torres-LeMahieu-Donaldson triumvirate.  Also, will rookie Anthony Volpe not only make the team but be the Opening Day shortstop?
Projected Lineup: DJ LeMahieu-2B, Aaron Judge-RF, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Giancarlo Stanton-DH, Josh Donaldson-3B, Oswaldo Cabrera-LF, Jose Trevino-C, Anthony Volpe-SS, Aaron Hicks-CF
Projected Rotation: Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes, Domingo German, Clarke Schmidt (Carlos Rodon, Frankie Montas injured)
Closer: Clay Holmes
Projected Record: 94-68

2. Toronto Blue Jays: Toronto can really hit.  Everybody knows that!  How far this team goes generally depends on its pitching staff, though.  When the Blue Jays have good pitching to go along with their ridiculous lineup, they're in pretty good shape.  When they don't, the playoffs aren't just out of the question.  And their already-good pitching staff got even better with the addition of Chris Bassitt from the Mets, who'll slide into the No. 4 spot in the rotation and move Kevin Gausman back to a very good No. 5.

With that solid rotation backing up their strong lineup, there's no reason to think the Blue Jays aren't capable of following up last season's playoff appearance with another one.  I can also see them finishing fourth.  The AL East is that strong.  And, the crazy thing is, even if they do finish fourth, they might still be a playoff team.  Because I don't think there are six teams in the American League better than the Blue Jays.  In the AL East, they're the second-best team on paper.  Although, if Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s sore knee that kept him out of the WBC gives him pain long-term, that could affect his production and change the narrative in this division.
Projected Lineup: George Springer-RF, Bo Bichette-SS, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-DH, Alejandro Kirk-C, Matt Chapman-3B, Brandon Belt-1B, Daulton Varsho-LF, Kevin Kiermaier-CF, Santiago Espinal-2B
Projected Rotation: Alek Manoah, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman
Closer: Jordan Romano
Projected Record: 91-71 (Wild Card 1)

3. Tampa Bay Rays: We have Kevin Cash and the Tampa Bay Rays to thank for the shift, which gradually overtook the entire sport to the point where its removal is the highlight of this season's rule changes.  This is the Rays we're talking about, though, so you know they'll adjust.  And, knowing them, they'll find a loophole in the new rules that they'll successfully exploit.  And the result will be another season with a win total in the high-80s/low-90s, which will probably be good enough for a wild card berth.

Let's not forget, too, that the Rays' lineup is nearly as ridiculous as the ones being put out by the Yankees and Blue Jays.  Randy Arozarena had his coming out party in the 2020 postseason, then won Rookie of the Year in 2021.  But, the World Baseball Classic has been some of the best baseball he's ever played.  Arozarena is just one piece in that young core in Tampa Bay.  Isaac Paredes is playing alongside Arozarena with Team Mexico, and we all know how good Wander Franco is.  So, it's really a matter of whether the pitching can keep up with the offense this season instead of the other way around, which has often been the case in the past for Tampa Bay.
Projected Lineup: Yandy Diaz-1B, Randy Arozarena-LF, Wander Franco-SS, Manuel Margot-RF, Isaac Paredes-3B, Harold Ramirez-DH, Brandon Lowe-2B, Christian Bethancourt-C, Jose Siri-CF
Projected Rotation: Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Yonny Chirinos, Zach Eflin, Jeffrey Springs
Closer: Pete Fairbanks
Projected Record: 86-76

4. Boston Red Sox: Boston was the only team in the AL East that had a disappointing 2022 season.  You know that didn't sit well with Red Sox brass, so they were determined to make their mark in free agency.  However, since they had to save some money in order to re-sign Rafael Devers next year, they ended up losing both Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez.  The Red Sox and Dodgers essentially traded DHes, since they signed Justin Turner to replace Martinez, who's now with the Dodgers.  But their big signing was Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida, who'll man left field at Fenway.

Pitching health, particularly in the rotation, is this team's Achilles heel.  Especially with the amount of veteran starers the Red Sox rely on, they really are playing with fire, which has come back to bite them a few times in recent years.  If their starting pitchers do stay healthy, though, that's a different story.  Their bullpen is actually better than it's been over the past few seasons, and they finally figured out that you need an actual closer, so they brought in Kenley Jansen and his 391 career saves as a free agent.
Projected Lineup: Kike Hernandez-SS, Alex Verdugo-RF, Rafael Devers-3B, Justin Turner-DH, Adam Duvall-CF, Masataka Yoshida-LF, Triston Casas-1B, Christian Arroyo-2B, Reese McGuire-C
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Garrett Whitlock
Closer: Kenley Jansen
Projected Record: 84-78

5. Baltimore Orioles: Last season, everything went right for the Orioles.  They called up all of the young guys who'll be their core group moving forward, and they all produced.  Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson were a huge reason why Baltimore was in the playoff mix until the very end in 2022.  Can they do it again this year?  That's the real question.  Although, there's no reason to believe they can't.

Even with the unbalanced schedule, the Orioles more than held their own in a division of heavyweights last year.  So, they should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the new schedule.  And I don't think it would surprise anyone if the 2023 Orioles end up being this season's 2022 Mariners.  Of course, this time they won't be sneaking up on anybody.  And it'll require everything to go right again.  I'm not saying that can't or won't happen.  But, in this division, finishing last with an 81-81 record is entirely possible.
Projected Lineup: Cedric Mullins-CF, Adam Frazier-2B, Adley Rutschman-C, Anthony Santander-RF, Ryan Mountcastle-1B, Austin Hays-LF, Kyle Stowers-DH, Gunnar Henderson-3B, Jorge Mateo-SS
Projected Rotation: John Means, Kyle Gibson, Cole Irvin, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish
Closer: Felix Bautista
Projected Record: 81-81