We made it! Happy Opening Day! The World Baseball Classic was a nice little teaser, but the 162-game grind of the MLB season is back! We've got seven months of baseball ahead of us! Which means I should probably finish off my season preview.
There's one division left--the NL Central. Last year, it came down to St. Louis and Milwaukee, with the Cardinals ultimately winning the division. I don't think it'll be nearly as close this year. Simply put, the Cardinals are the best team in the division. And I don't even really think it's that close! So, it's really up to the Cardinals. They're fully capable of running away with it, which they're fully capable of doing. But they also have a tendency to look downright mediocre for a few months in the middle of the season before turning it on at the end, and if that happens, the Brewers might have a chance.
Milwaukee's the only other team worth even being in the discussion. And the Brewers are certainly capable, especially if the Cardinals falter. The Cubs should be better this year, too. Their breakdown and rebuild appears to be complete, and they dipped their toes back into the free agent market this offseason. Are they good enough to challenge the Cardinals and Brewers? No. Are they going to lose 95 games? Also no.
Unfortunately, the Reds and Pirates look like they both will be in 95-loss territory. That's the thing about the National League. All three divisions have two really bad teams. And in the Central, those two teams happen to be Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. The Pirates at least have some guys who'll be able to get out of there at the trade deadline.
1. St. Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols and Yadi Molina both retired, next to be seen five years from now in Cooperstown. Adam Wainwright was planning on retiring, too, but after a good 2022, he decided to come back for one more year. He even pitched in the WBC for Team USA (and will miss the start of the season after injuring himself in a weight room workout). Wainwright was one of four Cardinals on Team USA, and St. Louis sent more players to the WBC than anybody. Which means this team doesn't just have talent, it's deep too.
Paul Goldschmidt is coming off an MVP campaign, and Nolan Arenado finished third in the MVP race last year. The thought of somebody other than Yadi Molina behind the plate is still a little weird, but, by poaching Willson Contreras from the Cubs, they replaced him with the best option available. I've gotta tell you, it's hard to find a weakness in this team. The Cardinals aren't as good as the Padres or the Braves or the Mets, but their position in October should be secure.
Projected Lineup: Lars Nootbaar-RF, Tommy Edman-SS, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Nolan Arenado-3B, Willson Contreras-C, Tyler O'Neill-LF, Dylan Carlson-CF, Paul DeJong-DH, Brendan Donovan-2B
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz
Closer: Giovanny Gallegos
Projected Record: 90-72
2. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers are kind of the National League version of Tampa Bay. The small-market team that somehow always finds a way to hang around and challenge for a playoff spot until the end. Doesn't mean they'll necessarily get there. But it does mean that they'll get close enough to make some moves at the deadline and potentially sneak into a division title if the Cardinals falter. Which is something they're definitely capable of doing.
I actually really like some of the moves they made during the offseason. William Contreras gets out of that platoon situation in Atlanta and is now catching in the same division as his brother. The Rowdy Tellez/Luke Voit combo will give them a ton of home runs at first base. And they've always had really good pitching. With Josh Hader now in San Diego, Devin Williams is the closer instead of the setup guy, so the bullpen's not as deep. But, with starters who can go six or seven and a good closer in Williams, they'll only need the rest of the bullpen to get about six outs a night, which they should be able to do.
Projected Lineup: Willy Adames-SS, Luis Urias-3B, Christian Yelich-LF, Rowdy Tellez-1B, William Contreras-C, Jesse Winker-DH, Brian Anderson-RF, Garrett Mitchell-CF, Brice Turang-2B
Projected Rotation: Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Eric Lauer, Freddy Peralta, Wade Miley
Closer: Devin Williams
Projected Record: 84-78
3. Chicago Cubs: After a few years of not trying, the Cubs have reentered the world of baseball teams who care. They shed payroll like it was nobody's business, losing all of the key players from their World Series team as free agents and replacing them from within their Minor League system. But this offseason, they went out and brought in Dansby Swanson from Atlanta, as well as a couple guys who needed a change of scenery--Cody Bellinger and Eric Hosmer. Bellinger's not too far removed from being NL MVP, and if he can find that form again, that signing will look even better.
It's not just in the lineup where they'll have a new face playing a prominent role, either. Jameson Taillon returns to the NL Central after his stint with the Yankees and slots into the No. 4 slot in the rotation. Assuming he stays healthy, he's a pretty good No. 4 starter! I'll admit, the Cubs don't look like they'll be that bad. I actually can see this team sticking around in the wild card race. They aren't good enough to snag a wild card. But they are good enough to make the Cardinals and Brewers have to work for it in the division.
Projected Lineup: Ian Happ-LF, Dansby Swanson-SS, Patrick Wisdom-3B, Eric Hosmer-1B, Cody Bellinger-CF, Seiya Suzuki-RF, Trey Mancini-DH, Yan Gomes-C, Nico Hoerner-2B
Projected Rotation: Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele
Closer: Michael Fulmer
Projected Record: 81-81
4. Cincinnati Reds: This Cincinnati team won't be as enjoyable to watch as some Reds teams in recent years. Those teams hit a ton of home runs, but had no pitching and lost 9-7. I'm sure they'll still hit their share of home runs, but most of the veterans who hit them in the past are now playing elsewhere. All but the one constant in Cincinnati. Joey Votto. He skipped the World Baseball Classic to get ready for the season, his 17th with the Reds. Unfortunately, he's seen a lot of losing over the previous 16 years, and Year 17 likely won't be much different.
Even if the offense is able to put up enough runs, their pitching staff is horrible. It's possibly the worst rotation in the Majors. It's also one of the youngest. Their top three starters were all rookies last season. The learning on the job is a good thing, I guess, but it'll come with its share of growing pains. Same thing with the bullpen. Closer Alexis Diaz is also in his second season, although he's coming off a solid rookie year (7-3, 1.84 ERA, 10/14 in saves). Getting to Diaz is the problem, though. That's where things can get dicey.
Projected Lineup: Jonathan India-2B, Nick Senzel-CF, Joey Votto-1B, Wil Myers-RF, Jake Fraley-LF, Curt Casali-DH, Tyler Stephenson-C, Spencer Steer-3B, Jose Barrero-SS
Projected Rotation: Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft, Luke Weaver, Luis Cessa
Closer: Alexis Diaz
Projected Record: 68-94
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: Most of Pittsburgh's best players will likely no longer be Pirates come August. So, Pirates fans better enjoy David Bednar, Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz (and maybe even Ke'Bryan Hayes) while they still can. Which is actually quite a compliment to the Pirates. They develop great young players and give them an opportunity. They just know they won't be able to hold on to them, so they flip them for value before losing them for nothing as free agents. It's a vicious cycle! And it appears likely to continue in 2023.
Also, shout out to 43-year-old Rich Hill! He signed with the Pirates after a solid season in Boston last year and will be in the rotation. Vince Velasquez also joins the rotation, which has holdovers JT Brubaker and Mitch Keller. Those two made a combined 57 starts last season and went a combined 8-24. That's not a knock on them. It's just a sad fact of life when pitching for a team like Pittsburgh. Kind of like how they've got an excellent closer in David Bednar, but you'd never know it by his save totals. It's kind of hard to get saves when you're losing late in the game, though.
Projected Lineup: Bryan Reynolds-CF, Oneil Cruz-SS, Ke'Bryan Hayes-3B, Carlos Santana-DH, Ji-Man Choi-1B, Andrew McCutchen-RF, Connor Joe-LF, Austin Hedges-C, Rodolfo Castro-2B
Projected Rotation: JT Brubaker, Mitch Keller, Vince Velasquez, Rich Hill, Roansy Contreras
Closer: David Bednar
Projected Record: 64-98
So, there you have it. What I think will happen in all six divisions this season. Just to recap, my AL playoffs have the Astros and Yankees getting byes, with the White Sox taking on the Angels and the Blue Jays facing the Guardians in the Wild Card Series. In the National League, I've got the byes into the Division Series going to Atlanta and San Diego, while my Wild Card Series are Cardinals vs. Phillies and Mets vs. Dodgers.
And, call me crazy, but I've just got a feeling about San Diego. I really think the Padres are the team to beat this season. So much so that they're my pick to win the World Series, where they'll knock off the defending champion Astros.
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