We've reached the stretch run. This is our final Sunday before the start of baseball season! Which means I've got to hurry up and get through the last three divisions. Today's installment: the AL Central.
The AL Central should've been a two-horse race last season, but ended up anything but. The White Sox entered the season as a sleeper World Series pick, but Tony La Russa proved to be not in touch with the modern game and they dramatically underachieved, finishing .500. Cleveland, meanwhile, had the youngest roster in baseball and ran away with the division, going 92-70 and taking the Yankees to five games in the Division Series.
Hopefully, this year, it actually is a race between the White Sox and Guardians. On paper, Chicago is still the better team. You can't count Cleveland out, though. Not when they have that experience from last season and a top-notch pitching staff. It should only take around 90 wins to win the division, but if they're both in the 88-92 range, they could both end up being playoff teams.
Minnesota didn't really get better, but the Twins didn't really get worse, either. They're not at the same level as the White Sox or Guardians, nor are they as bad as the Tigers and Royals. Detroit and Kansas City are probably looking at 90-loss territory. Although, there is at least some reason to watch the Tigers since it's Miguel Cabrera's last season.
1. Chicago White Sox: A whole bunch of White Sox not only played in the World Baseball Classic, but went far. Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert Jr. played for Cuba, while Tim Anderson and Lance Lynn were on Team USA. Anderson, especially, had a great WBC, and he showed that he's able to play second base very capably, which could be huge for the White Sox. That gives them so much more versatility. Although, there's no question that Anderson is their starting shortstop. He's also the spark plug that makes the team go.
They did lose their biggest power threat, Jose Abreu, in free agency, so that's one area of concern on the South Side. Andrew Benintendi's their big free agent addition, but he's more of a contact guy. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if they go after a first baseman during the season (Luke Voit?). Still, if they get the pitching that their staff is capable of, they may not need to worry about scoring too many runs. Giolito, Lynn and Cease are solid at the top of the rotation, and they have a top-notch closer in Liam Hendriks, as well as a strong setup man in Kendall Graveman. The pitching staff could be the key to success for the White Sox this season.
Projected Lineup: Tim Anderson-SS, Andrew Benintendi-LF, Yoan Moncada-3B, Andrew Vaughn-1B, Yasmani Grandal-C, Eloy Jimenez-DH, Luis Robert Jr.-CF, Gavin Sheets-RF, Leury Garcia-2B
Projected Rotation: Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, Mike Clevinger
Closer: Liam Hendriks
Projected Record: 91-71
2. Cleveland Guardians: Can Cleveland repeat last year's success? That's the real question heading into this season. Because, in a lot of ways, the Guardians overachieved last year. And they certainly took advantage of being in a weak division. But, they proved their mettle against the Yankees in the Division Series, so there's no doubt they were legitimately good. And they got better during the offseason. They lost Carlos Santana in free agency, but replaced him with Josh Bell, who's basically a younger version of the same player. They can plug him right in there behind Jose Ramirez.
It's the pitching that will make or break Cleveland's season, though. The Guardians have an excellent front of the rotation and a good closer in Emmanuel Clase. Their pitching staff isn't very deep, however. One injury could cause major problems, and I'm not sure how good their bullpen is outside of Clase. That's why I give the slight edge to the White Sox. I can definitely see Cleveland as a wild card team, though.
Projected Lineup: Steven Kwan-LF, Andres Gimenez-2B, Jose Ramirez-3B, Josh Bell-1B, Oscar Gonzalez-RF, Josh Naylor-DH, Myles Straw-CF, Mike Zunino-C, Amed Rosario-SS
Projected Rotation: Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, Cal Quantrill, Triston McKenzie
Closer: Emmanuel Clase
Projected Record: 89-73 (Wild Card 2)
3. Minnesota Twins: Carlos Correa left as a free agent and signed with the Giants. Then he failed his physical and signed with the Mets instead. Then he failed his physical again and ended up back on the Twins (if he failed their physical, it would've been a problem, seeing as he played for them last year). That's about the extent of the excitement about the Twins' offseason. They traded Luis Arraez, arguably their best player, to Miami in a move I still don't quite understand, and sent Gio Urshela to the Angels. They also cut Gary Sanchez, replacing him with Christian Vazquez, who caught the World Series no-hitter for Houston. They also took a chance on Joey Gallo, who, hilariously, is apparently still going to get shifted even though it's been banned!
Minnesota's pitching isn't anywhere near good enough to compete with the White Sox and Guardians, which is why I don't see them finishing any higher than third. Sonny Gray may be their nominal No. 1 starter, but he's not an ace. They got Pablo Lopez in the Arraez trade to be the No. 2 when he really is better than Gray. Being a No. 2 behind Sandy Alcantara in Miami made sense. Being a No. 2 behind Sonny Gray in Minnesota does not. And the Twins' bullpen is not very good. They're gonna need to rely on outscoring teams.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Jorge Polanco-2B, Carlos Correa-SS, Jose Miranda-3B, Alex Kiriloff-1B, Max Kepler-RF, Joey Gallo-DH, Christian Vazquez-C, Michael A. Taylor-LF
Projected Rotation: Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan
Closer: Jhoan Duran
Projected Record: 74-88
4. Detroit Tigers: There isn't really much to say about the Tigers. They won't be good, and they know it. But, still, getting to see a future Hall of Famer in the final season of his brilliant 21-year career at least gives you a reason to care. And, even with Jeimer Candelario gone, they have a couple other guys worth watching, too, starting with Spencer Torkelson, the former No. 1 overall pick who's poised to take over as the Face of the Franchise. I also wouldn't be surprised if Tyler Nevin earns a regular place in the lineup sooner rather than later.
Beyond the young guys, though, I don't see much of a reason to be optimistic about the Tigers this year. Their best pitcher was their closer Gregory Soto, who they flipped to the Phillies for Nick Maton and Matt Vierling, who were both on the World Series roster, but didn't have a place in Philadelphia long-term. That trade could actually be beneficial for the Tigers, even if it's just for the experience factor of adding two guys who played in the World Series. Unless they get traded again, they definitely will NOT be playing in the World Series this year (or probably any time soon). When the Lions are arguably the best team in Detroit right now, you know there are some lean times going on in the Motor City.
Projected Lineup: Akil Baddoo-LF, Jonathan Schoop-2B, Javier Baez-SS, Spencer Torkelson-1B, Miguel Cabrera-DH, Austin Meadows-RF, Eric Haase-C, Ryan Kreidler-3B, Riley Greene-CF
Projected Rotation: Matthew Boyd, Michael Lorenzen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Matt Manning, Spencer Turnbull
Closer: Jose Cisnero
Projected Record: 67-95
5. Kansas City Royals: Kansas City signing Aroldis Chapman actually made complete sense to me. I figured he'd go to a small-market, not-very-good team in hopes of having a little career reset before they can trade him to a reliever-needy reliever at the deadline. Which is exactly what I expect the Royals to do. Chapman joins with Scott Barlow and Amir Garrett to give them a back end of the bullpen that's fairly strong. Problem is, rest of the team's not. And I'm not sure Brady Singer's WBC appearance actually helped him.
He was one of several Royals who played in the WBC. They actually wanted their guys to go because they thought the experience would be important. Salvador Perez further proved that he's one of the best catchers in baseball by making the All-Tournament Team, Vinnie Pasquantino helped Italy reach the quarterfinals, and Bobby Witt Jr., despite playing a limited role, was an important member of Team USA. All of which is encouraging for the Royals. They'll be bad again this year, but their chances of being good in the future actually look pretty good. Especially if those guys have big years in 2023.
Projected Lineup: Nicky Lopez-3B, Bobby Witt Jr.-SS, Salvador Perez-C, Hunter Dozier-DH, Vinnie Pasquantino-1B, Kyle Isbel-RF, Drew Waters-CF, Michael Massey-2B, MJ Melendez-LF
Projected Rotation: Zach Greinke, Daniel Lynch, Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Jordan Lyles
Closer: Scott Barlow
Projected Record: 64-98
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