MLB 2023 (NL East)

That was an incredible WBC, capped by two outstanding wins by a very deserving championship team from Japan.  I'll have plenty about the WBC soon enough (including my responses to some of ridiculously dumb suggestions regarding the tournament's future), but not until I finish with the season preview.  Today's installment features arguably the best division in baseball--the NL East.

Last season, the NL East had three playoff teams that peaked at different times.  The Mets got off to an incredible start and looked unbeatable at the All*Star Break.  Then the Braves got hot and caught them for the division title.  Only for both of them to lose their first playoff series, while the Phillies, who only got in as the third wild card because of the new format, played their best baseball of the season in October and went all the way to the World Series.

Look for another three-way battle this season.  And look for them all to make the playoffs again.  As for the order of finish, your guess is as good as mine!  Because I can see any of the three winning the division...as long as they stay healthy!  That will be the key for all three NL East contenders.

Then there's the Marlins and Nationals, who wouldn't be competitive regardless of what division they're in, but really have no chance in the NL East!  And, with fewer division games to play this season, they'll have less of a role in deciding who does win it.

1. Atlanta Braves: I went back and forth between the Braves and Mets before ultimately settling on Atlanta as my pick for the division champion.  As you can see by my projected records, I have it going right down to the season's final day.  I can't really put my finger on why either.  I just have a feeling the Braves will work their late-season magic again.  The same late-season magic that brought them a World Series championship in 2021 and a division title last season.  But the difference between them and the Mets is infinitesimal.

So why am I going with the Braves?  I just think they're a little more complete.  There isn't a hole in their lineup, which includes the catching tag team of Travis d'Arnaud and Sean Murphy, who comes over from Oakland to join his buddy Matt Olson.  I don't know how they plan on splitting the duties, but they felt comfortable enough with what they had to trade William Contreras.  Of course, a lot of this relies on the expectation that everyone stays healthy.  Atlanta, unfortunately, doesn't have the greatest track record in that area.  If they do get a full season of their core hitters, though, look out!  They could win 100 games.
Projected Lineup: Michael Harris II-CF, Ozzie Albies-SS, Ronald Acuna Jr.-RF, Matt Olson-1B, Marcell Ozuna-DH, Austin Riley-3B, Eddie Rosario-LF, Travis d'Arnaud-C, Orlando Arcia-SS
Projected Rotation: Max Fried, Charlie Morton, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright, Collin McHugh
Closer: Raisel Iglesias
Projected Record: 94-68

2. New York Mets: The Mets are stacked!  There's no other way to put it.  Jacob deGrom left as a free agent, so they replaced him with Justin Verlander.  They lost Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker.  So they brought in Jose Qunitana and Kodai Senga.  And you can bet that, as devastating as Edwin Diaz's injury is, they'll go out and get a closer if they need to.  Which they might not have to do, since David Robertson is perfectly capable.

Of course, relying on two 40-somethings at the top of the rotation is a gamble.  If they both stay healthy, though, that's the top 1-2 punch in baseball, and it takes a lot of pressure off the offense.  The lineup is actually very similar to what they had last year, which is fine.  Since that lineup is pretty good!  They can outscore you when they need to and have arguably the best starting rotation in baseball.  It's easy to understand why their goal isn't just making the playoffs or just winning the division.  They want to play deep into October.  And they certainly have all the pieces to do just that.
Projected Lineup: Jeff McNeil-2B, Starling Marte-RF, Francisco Lindor-SS, Pete Alonso-1B, Daniel Vogelbach-DH, Eduardo Escobar-3B, Mark Canha-LF, Brandon Nimmo-CF, Omar Narvaez-C
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Kodai Senga, Carlos Carrasco
Closer: David Robertson
Projected Record: 93-69 (Wild Card 1)

3. Philadelphia Phillies: After becoming the first third-place team ever to reach the World Series, the Phillies went out and got even better.  Adding Trea Turner only makes the lineup that much deeper, and it'll get deeper still when they get Bryce Harper back in July.  One thing we know is that this team will hit plenty of home runs, especially playing their home games at Citizens Bank Park.  Which is good.  Because on some nights, they're definitely gonna need to outscore you.

Don't get me wrong.  Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are a phenomenal 1-2.  But this is a division full of great 1-2's, so the rest of the rotation will also need to be a strength.  Signing Taijuan Walker certainly helps.  That gives them a formidable 1-2-3.  And we'll see if Ranger Suarez can keep his October success going as a full-time member of the rotation.  As good as the Phillies are, though, I still think they're only the third-best team in the division.  Which says a lot more about the Braves and Mets than it does about Philadelphia.  Because I can easily see them making another World Series run as a wild card team.
Projected Lineup: Trea Turner-SS, J.T. Realmuto-C, Rhys Hoskins-1B, Kyle Schwarber-LF, Nick Castellanos-RF, Alec Bohm-3B, Josh Harrison-DH, Brandon Marsh-CF, Bryson Stott-2B
Projected Rotation: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, Bailey Falter
Closer: Seranthony Dominguez
Projected Record: 85-77 (Wild Card 3)

4. Miami Marlins: It tells you all you need to know about Sandy Alcantara that he was a runaway Cy Young winner while pitching for a non-competitive fourth-place team.  The Marlins are competitive on the days Alcantara pitches, though.  In fact, in a division where everybody's No. 1 starter is outstanding, he might be the best.  And the Marlins are much more formidable every time he's on the mound.

Unfortunately, Alcantara can only pitch once every five days.  Which means somebody else has to pitch on the other four.  And therein lies the problem.  The Marlins aren't a "bad' team.  They just don't have enough to be good in a powerhouse division.  Still, they're in better shape than the bottom teams in the NL Central and NL West.  They've actually got some worthwhile guys in the lineup, and they even brought in a couple big names in Luis Arraez and Yuli Gurriel.  Arraez's arrival means Jazz Chisholm Jr. moves from second base to center field, so let's see how he takes to the new position.  If he can make that adjustment and the rest of the lineup produces, Miami could be a sleeper team this season.
Projected Lineup: Jazz Chisholm Jr.-CF, Luis Arraez-2B, Avisail Garcia-RF, Jorge Soler-LF, Garrett Cooper-1B, Yuli Gurriel-DH, Joey Wendle-SS, Jean Segura-3B, Jacob Stallings-C
Projected Rotation: Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Johnny Cueto, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera
Closer: Matt Barnes
Projected Record: 71-91

5. Washington Nationals: Everyone knows what's going on in the nation's capital.  The Nationals are in full-blown rebuild mode.  That's why they traded their best player, Juan Soto, to the Padres at last season's trade deadline and threw in Josh Bell, too.  They were the two biggest names in a Nationals lineup that is now anchored by former Dodgers prospect Keibert Ruiz (who they got in the Max Scherzer trade at the 2021 deadline) and Tigers expat Jeimer Candelario.  Although, the biggest star on the team might actually be Joey Meneses, who introduced himself to the baseball world at large with two home runs in Mexico's WBC win over the U.S.

Stephen Strasburg is still in Washington, too.  He's hopeful to return to his World Series MVP-winning form.  Also looking to return to form is Patrick Corbin, whose numbers haven't been pretty over the past several seasons.  In the three years since the Nationals' World Series run, he's 17-42 with a 5.82 ERA.  Not pretty.  Last season, he was 6-19!  Yet Corbin has also made 73 starts during that time.  So, they either think there's still something there or they're just sending him out there figuring they're gonna lose anyway, so what's the difference?  Unfortunately, it might be the latter.  Because they're right.  It doesn't matter who's pitching.  The Nationals will, once again, lose a lot of games.
Projected Lineup: Victor Robles-CF, Luis Garcia-2B, Joey Meneses-DH, Jeimer Candelario-3B, Corey Dickerson-LF, Keibert Ruiz-C, Dominic Smith-1B, Lane Thomas-RF, CJ Abrams-SS
Projected Rotation: Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, Cade Cavali, Mackenzie Gore
Closer: Tanner Rainey
Projected Record: 70-92