For a while now (pretty much ever since odds-on favorite Oslo dropped out), many experts have been saying that this was Beijing's race to lose. A lot of that had to do with the familiarity factor. The voters aren't allowed to visit bid cities, but they all know Beijing and remember the great time they had in 2008. Meanwhile, very few people had even heard of Almaty prior to it becoming a finalist.
I think the actual vote is going to be closer than the experts are predicting, though. I've been on Team Almaty all the way, for a number of reasons. And even though it looks like Beijing will probably be selected, becoming the first city to host both the Summer and Winter Games (only 14 years apart) in the process, it's not going to be the blowout many are expecting. Almaty may even pull off the upset. After all, the last time there were only two finalists, in 1999, everyone was certain Sion, Switzerland would get the nod, but the 2006 Games ended up going to Torino.
From the presentations, I can't really say one city has the edge over the other. They were both good, but neither really stood out as exceptional. They both touched on the key points and made sure they mentioned how their bid was in line with Olympic Agenda 2020. But I felt like there were areas where they each missed the mark, as well. I'm not sure how much the voters consider these final presentations when casting their ballots (many probably go into the session with their minds already made up), but neither did anything to sway an undecided in its favor.
Almaty went first and took some subtle shots at Beijing, which I absolutely loved! The big thing that they made sure to mention repeatedly was that they actually have winters in Kazakhstan. They'll have plenty of natural snow and ice, and the climate will create a true Winter Games atmosphere. They also wisely highlighted the fact that all of the venues are within 30 kilometers of each other. They'll have separate Olympic Villages in the mountain areas because of the elevation, but the whole thing will feel like an Olympics. It won't feel like a bunch of World Championships scattered around a somewhat close area. Fans will be able to go to different events in different areas on the same day, and the athletes from one sport will get to intermingle with teammates from another. That's what makes the Olympics the Olympics.
Another thing they were very wise to point out was that there's never been an Olympics in Central Asia. Early in their presentation, they showed a map and indicated everywhere that's hosted either a Winter or Summer Games. Then they showed where Almaty is. The whole point was that they've been to Beijing before. This is their chance to spread the Olympic Movement somewhere else.
One last thing that I found impressive about Almaty's presentation was their venue plan. They've recently hosted the Asian Winter Games and will be hosting the 2017 Winter Universiade. As a result, pretty much all of the Olympic venues are either already built or will be in time for 2017. They only need to construct two new venues. That's obviously a whole lot cheaper, and Kazakhstan is a winter sports nation, so the venues will be used after the Olympics.
Beijing presented itself as the safe choice, which in many ways it is. They were literally just in Beijing for an Olympics, so they know what to expect. Beijing doesn't have to build many venues, either, because they're planning on reusing many of the ones that were built for 2008. And they were sure to stress the convenience of getting to Beijing (which is a major world capital) and the abundance of hotel rooms in the city (again, it's a major world capital).
They also put quite an emphasis on China's winter sports tradition (which isn't actually a thing) and how these Winter Olympics will inspire 350 million Chinese youth to take up winter sports (what happened to the other 650 million?). Meanwhile, the fact that there's no snow in China shouldn't be an issue. All of the winter sports federations are OK with them making all artificial snow (which is a common practice), and they'll only use up like 1 percent of the water supply to do so. And the fact that the venues are nowhere near each other shouldn't be a big deal, either. They're building a high-speed train line that will connect the city and mountain venues in less than a half hour!
As you can tell, I'm a little skeptical of some of the things Beijing was selling. China did bring out the star power, though, and the athletes did tell compelling stories. Yao Ming talked about the experience of playing at home during the 2008 Beijing Games, while Winter Olympic gold medalists Yang Yang and Li Nina talked about the thrill of winning and what these Games would mean for winter sports in China. Beijing also made it a point to talk about the Paralympics, which is something Almaty pretty much neglected.
However, a good portion of the Beijing presentation was in Chinese, including the President's speech, which was delivered by video because he wasn't in Kuala Lumpur. The delegation for Almaty spoke almost exclusively in English, and the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan was there to make his appeal in person. I'm not saying any of that should or will make a difference (the IOC lets you present in any language you want), but it's probably something that will stick with some of the voters.
Personally, I've been rooting for Almaty the entire time, and I'm sure hoping they do pull the upset. My gut tells me the IOC will go with the safe choice, though. I have a feeling that the 2022 Winter Olympics will end up in Beijing. Which will be a shame. Because they'll be missing out on quite an opportunity to expand the Olympic Movement while also giving the little guy a chance to show that he can do it, too.
With Beijing, it's been there, done that. Take a risk. Vote for Almaty. After Sochi, wouldn't it be nice to have the Winter Olympics in a place that actually has winter?
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