Saturday, July 4, 2015

A Rematch Four Years In the Making

After 50 games between 24 teams over a month, the 2015 Women's World Cup is going to end the same way as the 2011 edition did.  With the United States meeting Japan for the title.  It's a rematch four years in the making, and it's the only matchup the U.S. would've wanted.  In order to win the World Cup for the first time in 16 years, they'll have to knock off the team that beat them in the final last time.  It really couldn't have ended any other way.

First, a thought on the bronze medal game.  I had said all along that the USA-Germany loser would win the third place game.  After the events of the semifinals, I'm absolutely sticking to that prediction.  The Germans obviously have no interest in this game, but they're still the better team.  I don't think that's the reason they're going to win, though.  It's more because of the way England lost.  That own goal in literally the waning seconds was one of the cruelest ways to lose a World Cup semifinal I've ever seen.  Worse yet, it's completely deflating.  I don't see how England recovers from that loss two days later against the best team in the world.

Speaking of the best team in the world, that semifinal game against Germany was hands-down the best American performance of the tournament.  It's not even close.  They were aggressive and the offense was much more dynamic.  The defense, meanwhile, was just as lockdown as its been the entire World Cup.  Germany got some shots off, which you expected them to, so Hope Solo actually had to do some work for the first time since the Sweden game.  It's a good thing she's the best goalie in the world.  And it was her stalling tactics that led to Sasic missing that penalty kick.

Japan has been arguably the best team throughout the entire tournament.  But they're coming off their worst performance of the World Cup against England.  They were lucky to survive that game, and I think they know it.  Japan's road to the final has been much easier.  Their first four games were against teams making their World Cup debuts, and England was their highest-ranked opponent.  All credit to them.  They've played the teams that they were scheduled to play, and the still haven't lost a World Cup game since their last group game in 2011.  But Japan has been less and less impressive as the tournament has worn on.

The U.S., meanwhile, has gotten better as the tournament progressed.  All those concerns about the offense in the beginning have been calmed, and the defense has been just as fantastic as it's been the entire time.  It's no wonder Julie Johnston is one of the finalists for the Golden Ball.  The five consecutive shutouts are as much credit to that back line as they are to Hope Solo, who didn't really have to do much between the Australia and Germany games.

During the Americans' press conference yesterday, captain Christie Rampone (who's played in all of one game this World Cup) talked about a series of meetings Head Coach Jill Ellis had with some of the veteran players at the midway point of the tournament.  That was right before the China game.  I don't think it's a coincidence that the U.S. has played its two best games of the tournament since those meetings.

I obviously don't know what was said between Ellis and Rampone (or Carli Lloyd or any of the other players she met with), but it's probably safe to say that the meetings were a turning point.  And it might just be the turning point that wins the U.S. the World Cup.  Was it the players' suggestion that they go from that boring 4-4-2 style with Carli Lloyd as a holding midfielder to the wide open 4-3-3 approach they've used since?  Maybe, maybe not.  That change might've been necessitated by the fact Rapinoe and Holiday were suspended for the China game.  But the lineup changes and substitution patterns over the last couple games have all made sense and all worked.  From starting Kelley O'Hara against China to making Abby Wambach a bench player, keeping her legs fresh at the end of games.  Alex Morgan is completely healthy now, too, and her ability to go 90 minutes has been an important change from the beginning of the tournament, as well.

And it's because of that wide-open attack that I think the '15ers will become as legendary to a generation of American girls as the '99ers.  We already knew that the defense was good enough to win the World Cup, and Hope Solo's the best goalie in the world.  The offense has now caught up.

Neither team has trailed the entire tournament (it's tough to trail when you don't give up any goals), so the first goal in the final is going to be extremely important.  It'll be interesting to see how whichever team finally falls behind reacts in that situation.  Japan has played all one-goal games, but hasn't come close to losing.  But they've played some tight ones, and even they'll admit they could've (and maybe should've) lost to England.

There's one other factor that needs to be considered, and it's a big one.  The game's in Vancouver, which is only a half-hour from the border.  Just like each of the first six games, this will be a U.S. home game.  The crowd is going to be loud, rabid and extremely pro-American.  If Japan wants proof, they can ask the Germans about that one.  In a way, they got lucky that Canada lost and they didn't have to play their semifinal in a hostile environment.  But that also could've been good for Japan, since that's the way it'll be at BC Place on Sunday night.

If you'd told me when the knockout round started that it would be a USA-Japan rematch, I probably would've said Japan would win.  But now that we're here, that's not how I see the final playing out at all.  The U.S. just played its best game of the tournament in beating the best team in the world.  They've got confidence, they've got the crowd on their side, and they're out for revenge.  Yes, the USA beat Japan for the 2012 Olympic gold medal, but they want that World Cup.

Four years ago, they missed that chance.  They blew a late lead twice, and Japan won the World Cup on penalty kicks.  As Abby Wambach said, they've thought about that loss everyday since then.  For Wambach and Rampone and probably a few others, this is their last chance.  They're not going to let it slip through their fingers again.  USA 1, Japan 0.

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