Thursday, July 2, 2015

CC, Warren and Eovaldi

I warned you I might do a blog about this topic, and here it is.  Earlier this week, the Yankees made their less-than-unexpected announcement that Adam Warren would be moved to the bullpen.  Even though this was something everybody saw coming, that didn't stop the idiots from coming out of the woodwork and posting their comments saying that it "made no sense" or that CC Sabathia or Nathan Eovaldi should've been sent to the bullpen instead of Warren.  I call those people "idiots" for a reason.

During Spring Training, Warren was battling Chris Capuano for the fifth spot in the Yankees' rotation, a competition he ended up winning.  But Warren and Capuano entered that competition knowing that, barring injury, the team would only need a fifth starter for three months until Ivan Nova came back from Tommy John surgery...and that's exactly what happened.

When Nova came back, the Yankees were anticipating their rotation being Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia, Nathan Eovaldi and Ivan Nova.  That's finally what their rotation is.  These are the five they were planning on having.  Adam Warren's place in the rotation was always meant to be temporary.  He and Capuano were both starting for a little while while Tanaka was on the DL, but, when it came time to make a choice, Warren stayed in the rotation and Capuano became the long man.  This situation was completely different.  Adam Warren did an excellent job as a starter.  He was arguably the Yankees' best starter in the month of June.  But there wasn't ever going to be any other way for six to be reduced to five.

CC Sabathia has struggled this year.  He'll be the first to admit that.  And, obviously, the amount of money he's making makes each loss he takes harder to swallow.  But there was never any chance CC was going to be removed from the rotation.  For one, you're not paying him all that money to pitch in relief.  In fact, that's probably the main reason.  But CC's record needs to be examined further.  This season, he's really been a victim of the big inning.  During his last start, YES put up a graphic that if you removed the big innings (four-plus runs), his ERA is slightly under 4.00, which is fine.

Obviously the big innings are a problem.  There's been way too many of them.  He's also been susceptible to the home run ball, which is usually what leads to those big innings.  But on the other side of that, how many times has CC pitched well and they didn't score any runs for him?  Remember that game in Detroit in April?  An eight-inning complete game, five strikeouts, two runs (which both came in the seventh), a 2-1 loss.  Or even in his last start on Tuesday night, when they scored a total of one run for him?!  If your team doesn't score any runs for you, you have to be damn near perfect in order to win.

What's more, CC's going to stay out there and take his lumps.  There have been some games where he was just too bad to keep him in there and still have a chance, but for the most part, Sabathia's going to give you at least six innings every time out.  With the overuse the bullpen has already endured, that's not a small thing.  And it would be a waste to take his six innings every five days and turn it into an inning every other day or, even worse, a few every once in a while as a long man.

As for Eovaldi, I never quite understood why some people wanted him in the bullpen.  The guy's 8-2!  He had one bad game in Miami.  That's it.  And my guess is that's what they're using to compare him with Warren.  But it's asinine to suggest a starter should be demoted because of one bad start.  Eovaldi's problem is that he throws a lot of pitches, which means he doesn't go deep into games, but, as his record suggests, he always puts the Yankees in a position to win.  Even more than that, though, the Yankees traded for Eovaldi during the offseason specifically to be a starter.  If that's why you got him, why would you change that?

Which leaves us with Adam Warren.  There are a few reasons why Warren was sent to the bullpen instead of the other two guys, and they're all as logical as they are obvious.  The first is innings.  Warren came up through the Minors as a starter, but has been used primarily as a reliever since being called up in 2013.  He threw 77 innings as a rookie and 78.2 last season.  This year, he's already at 85.1, putting him on pace for as many in one season as he'd had in his entire career.  Twice as many innings from one year to the next isn't good on the arm, and they're conscious of that, not wanting to see another young pitcher go under the knife.

Then there's the sheer fact that Warren has been in the bullpen before.  He was a lights-out setup guy during his first two Big League seasons, and you'll figure he'll step right back into that role.  For a bullpen that's been struggling and needed a right-hander, Warren is just the answer.  Like I said, he's done it before.  Successfully.  Last season, he made 69 appearances, all in relief, primarily in the seventh inning, and had a 2.97 ERA.  By shifting Warren to the bullpen, the Yankees filled a need while still having Warren fill a valuable role on the pitching staff.  Warren stabilizes the bullpen, where he's already proven himself, so they're more comfortable putting him in that situation than they might've been with somebody else.

The fact that Warren's had success as a reliever played into the decision, too.  With him in the bullpen, they know what they're getting.  CC Sabathia has never been a reliever before.  Neither has Nathan Eovaldi.  So why put them in a situation where they're not familiar and you don't know whether they'll be comfortable?  Starting and relieving are two completely different things, and they require completely different mindsets.  It's not easy to go from one to the other.  Especially when it's viewed as a demotion.

Make no mistake.  Adam Warren was not "demoted" to the bullpen.  He was simply the odd-man out in a six-man rotation.  Somebody needed to go to the bullpen, and he happened to be the guy.  Not because of performance.  Because they knew he could do it.  And because that's what puts the Yankees in the best position to win.

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