Sunday, August 2, 2015

Impact of the Deadline Deals

Well, this MLB Trade Deadline was certainly different than what we've seen in recent years.  The biggest buyers were the Mets, Blue Jays, Royals and Astros, while the Tigers found themselves as sellers.  So is the double-edged sword of the second wild card.  More teams are "in" it and looking to make a move, but fewer teams are willing to give up pieces.  Maybe we'll see some action in August, although I'm not sure how many big names will actually clear waivers.

There was at least one somewhat major move in each division, though, so the next two months will definitely be impacted by the moves we've seen in the past couple days.  Yet still only 10 teams can make the playoffs, so a lot of these trades will end up being for naught (although some are for both this year and the long-term).

No team was busier at the deadline than Toronto.  The Blue Jays got the starter they needed, and it was a front-line guy in David Price.  They also swapped Jose Reyes for Troy Tulowitzki, who has more power, but is injured all the time.  When healthy, Tulo's probably a little better, but I think I'd rather have Reyes.  They replaced Reyes as the leadoff guy with Ben Revere, and made some lower-level acquisitions also.  Meanwhile, the first-place Yankees pretty much stood pat.  Not getting a starter like many expected, and not pulling the trigger on Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Champan, although they were evidently in on both.  Dustin Ackley is the only new Yankee, and that barely counts as an "impact" move.  Baltimore added Gerardo Parra, while Tampa Bay and Boston did nothing significant.

Toronto is a much better team today than they were last week.  And they now definitely look like a playoff team.  However, I don't think they'll catch the Yankees in the AL East.  One of the reasons the Yankees didn't do anything was because they feel comfortable with the team they have (although with Michael Pineda on the DL, I bet they're now rethinking not going after a starter).  One of the reasons I think this is because the Yankees and Blue Jays still have 13 games against each other.  Toronto's probably going to need to go something like 9-4 in those 13 games to pass the Yankees, and Price will get, at most, four starts against them.  But don't get me wrong.  I do think the Blue Jays will be in the wild card game.

In the AL Central, the two teams that were in the playoffs last season took very different tactics at this year's trade deadline.  With Miguel Cabrera out (and now J.D. Martinez joining him on the DL), the Tigers were losing ground quickly.  So, knowing that they were probably going to lose Price and Yoenis Cespedes as free agents, Detroit decided to get something for them.  The Tigers have come to terms with the fact that their streak of four straight years winning the division is likely over.  The team that's going to win the AL Central is Kansas City.  The Royals want to get back to the World Series, but knew they weren't going to without a front-line starter.  Enter Johnny Cueto.  It's a perfect fit.  With Cueto in that No. 1 starter role, I can easily see the Royals back in the World Series.  Ben Zobrist is a perfect addition, too.  He can play left until Alex Gordon gets back, then take over for Omar Infante at second.  As for the Twins, I'm surprised they didn't do anything.

I'm not sure exactly what to make of what happened in the AL West.  The Astros, apparently, tried to get Price and he said "No," so they added Scott Kazmir to the rotation instead.  Then, after that crazy situation involving Carlos Gomez and the Mets, they ended up with the former Brewers center fielder.  Gomez is a great addition to the lineup and a great defender in center field.  It also means George Springer doesn't have to rush back from his broken wrist.  The Angels got Shane Victorino and David DeJesus to flank Mike Trout in the outfield, but their rotation took a big hit with C.J. Wilson's injury.  With Jered Weaver out, too, I'm not sure Anaheim's pitching will hold up.  Speaking of pitching, how did Cole Hamels end up in Texas?  The Rangers are out of it, and they're not going to climb back in it.  They've got to be looking towards the future and a rotation headlined by Hamels and Yu Darvish next season.

The Mets were aggressive at the deadline, too.  In fact, along with Toronto, they're the team that has improved the most since the All-Star Break.  The Wilmer Flores-Carlos Gomez thing was an absolute disaster, but I'm sure right now they're happy they've still got Flores.  And Yoenis Cespedes was a major coup.  That's the bat in the middle of the lineup they've needed all season (and I think they'll have a good chance of signing him long-term).  If David Wright can come back and you can pair him with Cespedes to go along with that pitching, I think we'll definitely see the Mets in the postseason.

Whether or not the Mets can win the division is still up in the air, but they're definitely well-equipped to challenge the Nationals the rest of the way.  Jonathan Papelbon was surprising considering they already had Drew Storen, but the lights-out bullpen is a method that many teams (2013 Cardinals, 2014 Royals) have ridden to the World Series recently, so they didn't exactly do a bad thing by strengthening their bullpen.  This race will go right down to the wire, but Washington is still better than the Mets, so I think they'll hold them off in the division.

Speaking of never having too much pitching, St. Louis has been planning for the postseason since May.  The Cardinals strengthened their bullpen with Jonathan Broxton and Steve Cishek, and they gave up hope on Matt Holliday by trading for Brandon Moss from Cleveland.  There's no reason to think the Cardinals won't win the division or continue their NLCS streak (it is their year to win the pennant, after all).  Pittsburgh didn't do anything to help their chances of getting out of the wild card game.  Outside of Joakim Soria and Michael Morse, they didn't really do much.  They probably know they won't catch the Cardinals, so they might be positioning themselves to host the Wild Card Game.  That's why I'm surprised the Cubs didn't do anything.  They needed to, and they didn't.  They're not going to make the playoffs.

Everybody knows that the Dodgers are the best team in the NL West (sorry, Giants fans) and that they have the best 1-2 in baseball.  Problem is, after Kershaw and Greinke, it's a Triple-A rotation.  Not anymore.  Mat Latos and Alex Wood are definitely better than anything they had.  I would've liked to see them address the bullpen, too, but they definitely needed a starter, and they got two.  Throw in Jose Tabata, and they've got another left-handed outfielder who they'll only use as a pinch hitter.  The Giants strengthened their rotation, too, with the addition of Mike Leake.  Otherwise, San Francisco stood pat, as they try to break the trend and actually make the playoffs in an odd-year.  Another team having an odd year is San Diego.  The Padres made a splash with all their offseason moves, but when it became clear they were going to be this year's 2012 Marlins/2013 Blue Jays, many thought they'd be sellers.  Instead, the deadline passed with Craig Kimbrel and Justin Upton still Padres.  Interesting.

So, some teams definitely got better, some definitely got worse, and for some teams, their smartest move might've been the one they didn't make.  And as a result of what happened at the trade deadline, I think we'll see the Yankees, Royals and Astros win their divisions, with Toronto and Anaheim playing in the AL Wild Card Game.  In the NL, Washington, St. Louis and the Dodgers will win their divisions, and the Wild Card Game will be Pirates-Mets.  But we've still got a month until rosters have to be set, so there's still plenty of movement that's possible.  And who's knows what kind of effect those trades might have?  Check back with me in a month.

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