Tuesday, June 30, 2015

1 vs. 2 In the Semis

Well kids, we've reached the penultimate stage of the Women's World Cup.  Three of the four nations that have won the tournament (who are ranked 1st, 2nd and 4th in the world) are left, along with an English team that spoiled Canadian hopes.

Of course, Shania Twain decides to go back on tour and play Madison Square Garden the same night as the World Cup semifinal between the United States and Germany.  I guess that's why DVRs were invented.  It is kind of funny, though, that I've been so into this tournament, yet I won't be able to watch the most important game so far live (and with the Yankees on the West Coast, I'll be lucky if I watch it before the Japan-England game).

Anyway, when the groups were announced, this was the semifinal matchup everyone was hoping to see.  The top two teams in the world, the only two to have won the World Cup twice, with the winner earning a shot to (likely) avenge its loss to Japan in 2011.  And I think whoever comes out of this game WILL win the World Cup, while the loser will still be on the podium with the bronze.

So who wins?  Well, Germany has been arguably the best offensive team in the tournament, while the U.S. has been the best defensive team by far.  Hope Solo's had four consecutive shutouts, and when's the last time a team even had a decent scoring chance against the U.S.?  That's why people's flipping out over the "lack of offense" has been driving me so nuts!  If they don't give up any, does it make a difference if they only get one?  They've still gotten to the semifinals, just as expected, so clearly something they've been doing has been working.

With that being said, the Americans will have to play their best game of the tournament in this one.  You can't expect the shutout streak to continue for 90 (or 120) minutes against such a potent offense, and you know that you obviously don't want to go to penalty kicks against the Germans, either.  So, yes, that means the offense will have to step up and find a way to get two by Angerer, which I think is possible.

The U.S. played its best game of the tournament against China, and they did it without Lauren Holiday, Megan Rapione or Abby Wambach (I'm not counting Wambach's token appearance with five minutes left in the game).  That has to give everybody else a huge boost of confidence heading into the semifinals, especially with the two starting midfielders returning after their yellow card suspensions.

Meanwhile, Germany was lucky to survive against France, getting that late penalty kick to tie it before winning in penalties.  (That was the game of the tournament for a day until England-Canada.)  They showed incredible fight in that game, proving why they're the best team in the world.  It also benefits the Germans that their quarterfinal game was in Montreal.  The U.S. is only coming from Ottawa, which is 90 minutes away, but Germany didn't have to travel and has already played in the cavernous 65,000-seat stadium.  They handled the hostile environment when Olympic Stadium was filled with French fans, so a bunch of flag-waving, red, white and blue-wearing Americans won't faze them either.

Germany will be the team that finally gets a goal against Hope Solo.  They're just too strong offensively.  But, all those German goals have to be viewed with a grain of salt.  They really all came in three games, against Ivory Coast, Thailand and Sweden.  Norway and France, the two best teams they've faced, each played them to a 1-1 draw.  The Americans, obviously, are more in the Norway-France league than the Ivory Coast-Thailand league.  And the opposition the U.S. has faced has been much stronger overall.

This is the fourth time that the United States and Germany are meeting in the Women's World Cup.  The Americans have won two of the previous three meetings, but Germany won the last one, in this round in 2003 when the U.S. was defending its title.  That loss was on home soil in Portland.  This American team traveled North of the Border for one reason.  They're finding their groove at just the right time, and they know that they have to bring their A-games to Montreal for Germany.  Playing Germany in the World Cup semifinals will be enough.  Playing on the 4th of July is the last thing they want to do.  They want to get even with Japan for last time.  But they've got to get through Germany first, which I think they will.  Goals from Alex Morgan and Megan Rapinoe give the U.S. a 2-1 victory.

In the other semi, we've got Japan taking on England.  England spoiled the home crowd's planned Canada Day party by knocking off Canada in that highly entertaining quarterfinal game.  They're the only team left in the tournament that has a loss (to France in the opening game), but the English believe they can win the World Cup, even with three of the top four teams in the world taking the other semifinal spots.  They've been very impressive in their knockout-round wins over Norway and Canada, but Japan will be a much different task.

Japan is the only one of the four that has won each of its games in Canada.  In my opinion, they've been the best team in the tournament, but as the announcers correctly pointed out during their quarterfinal win over Australia, each of Japan's wins has been by one goal.  There's two ways to interpret that.  The easiest way is to give them credit for finding a way to win all those close games (they held a 1-0 lead for a long time against Ecuador and didn't score until late against Australia).  But it could also mean that you're exploiting one Japanese mistake away from beating them.

England was the last team to beat Japan in the Women's World Cup, during group play four years ago.  I don't see history repeating itself, though.  The Japanese will get a chance to defend their title.  As for the score.  I smell another one-goal victory.  I'm thinking 2-1, setting up a rematch of the 2011 final against the United States.

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