Novak's Back at the Aussie Open

Heading into last year's Australian Open, everything was overshadowed by the Novak Djokovic drama.  The saga over whether the unvaccinated Djokovic would be allowed to even enter the country dominated the headlines throughout the leadup.  Djokovic, of course, ended up being deported the day before the tournament began, which also included a three-year ban on entering Australia.

That ban was later rescinded when Australia changed its travel restrictions.  Foreigners are no longer required to be vaccinated and no longer have to quarantine.  So, since Djokovic would otherwise be able to travel to Australia now, and since they proved their point, his three-year deportation was overturned and he was allowed to enter this year's tournament, where he will be the favorite.

Djokovic missing last year's tournament had huge repercussions all season, too.  He was the defending champion, so he lost 2000 points on his ranking.  He won Wimbledon, but Wimbledon's punishment for not allowing Russian players to enter was having no points awarded, so he got 0 points there despite winning.  And he also had to miss the US Open as an unvaccinated foreigner, so no points there either. 

So, with no points in three of the four Grand Slams in 2022, Djokovic's ranking has dropped all the way to No. 5.  But, should he extend his record with a 10th Australian Open title, Djokovic goes right back to No. 1.  The current No. 1, Carlos Alcaraz, is injured, so Djokovic is the No. 4 seed, which meant he could've been drawn into either side of the bracket, including a potential semifinal against Rafael Nadal.  Fortunately, Djokovic and Nadal ended up on opposite sides, so they can only meet in the final.

Had Djokovic played last year, the two of them would've battled it out to become the all-time record-holder with 21 Grand Slam titles.  With Djokovic absent, it was Nadal who got to No. 21 first, overcoming a two-set deficit against Daniil Medvedev in the final to win his first Australian Open title in 13 years.  (Nadal, by the way, lost a grand total of one Grand Slam match in 2022...his walkover in the Wimbledon semifinals doesn't count.)

With the two of them on opposite sides of the draw, it's very easy to envision them meeting in the final (where Nadal would either increase his lead to 23-21 or Djokovic would even it up at 22-22).  And they're the two clear favorites.  As they should be.  They've combined to win 11 of the last 15 Australian Opens, after all.  So, if you're looking for contenders, you don't really need to go beyond those two.

While I may think it's a fool's errand to look for other "favorites," there still needs to be two other semifinalists.  Daniil Medvedev, who's made the last two finals, is unfortunately in same quarter as Nadal.  Which obviously means one of them can't make the semifinals.  Alexander Zverev, meanwhile, is back.  The Tokyo Olympic gold medalist suffered a gruesome ankle injury against Nadal in the French Open semifinals last year and missed the rest of the season.  He might be the best hardcourt player in the world, so if anybody outside of the Big Two is gonna break through, he'd be my choice.

Ultimately, though, I do think it'll come down to the two big dogs.  They've met in the Australian Open final twice before, with Djokovic winning both times (including an epic in 2012).  I don't see 2023 being any different.  Much like Roland Garros is Nadal's domain, Melbourne Park is Djokovic's.  He makes it 10-for-10 in finals.

On the women's side, meanwhile, it's wide open.  There are a grand total of two former champions in the field--Victoria Azarenka and Sofia Kenin--and they're playing each other in the first round!  So, it seems likely that the Australian Open tradition of at least one surprise woman making a deep run will continue.

Last year, that surprising run was made by Danielle Collins, who went all the way to the final as the No. 27 seed.  In the semifinals, she crushed Iga Swiatek, who would go on to win the French and US Opens and become the clear No. 1 in the world, 6-4, 6-1, before losing to Ash Barty in the final.  Collins and Swiatek would meet each other in the fourth round this year, and the winner should be the favorite to reach the final on the top half of the draw.

Let me go back to last year and Ash Barty for a second, because that story needs to be told.  Barty entered the tournament as No. 1 in the world and had a chance to become the first hometown Australian Open women's champion since 1978.  She did just that, only to abruptly retire from the sport at the age of 25 two months later as the active No. 1, completely upending the rankings.

Barty's not the only one missing.  Two-time Australian Open champ Naomi Osaka announced just a week ago that she's pregnant and will miss the entire season.  This is also the first Grand Slam since Serena's retirement.  Little did we know, that when she won the 2017 title, her record seventh, while pregnant, it would be the last time she lifted a Grand Slam trophy.  However, with those three missing, it offers a chance for some new blood to make their marks.

The rankings upheaval appears to have settled a little bit.  Swiatek has established herself as a clear No. 1, and Ons Jabeur has made the last two Grand Slam finals, so her status as No. 2 is also pretty clear.  The rest of it, though, is still a little in flux.  Jessica Pegula, the daughter of the Bills/Sabres owners, is No. 3 and Caroline Garcia, who won the WTA Tour championship last year, is No. 4.  Neither of them has ever made a Grand Slam final.  Will that change here?

There are two other women who I can see potentially having their Grand Slam breakthrough here.  The first is Belinda Bencic, the Tokyo Olympic champion, who's never made it past the fourth round at any Grand Slam other than the US Open.  The other is No. 5 Aryna Sabalenka.  She's made the last two US Open semifinals and been to the fourth round here the last two times.  Sabalenka, Bencic and Jabeur are all in the same quarter, though.

I see Jabeur coming out of that very competitive quarter, while Garcia's path to the semifinals is actually pretty smooth.  That winner of that Swiatek-Collins fourth-round matchup should also win the quarterfinal, and I see Pegula making her maiden Grand Slam semifinal.  Although, we all know how good a hardcourt player Azarenka is, so that quarterfinal won't be easy.

In the end, though, I see Ons Jabuer making history.  She's already the highest-ranked African and Arab woman ever, as well as the first to make a Grand Slam final, all of which happened in the last half of 2022.  In 2023, she takes it all a step further and becomes the first-ever African and Arab Grand Slam champion.