My 2022-23 NFL Picks (Week 17)

There's two weeks left in the NFL season and no team in either South division is over .500.  It's looking likely that at least one of the two divisions (probably the AFC South) will have a sub-.500 division winner.  I'm sorry, but that's just sad!  And, making matters worse, Dallas and whoever doesn't win the AFC North will have to go on the road and face whoever the least-bad team in those divisions is in the playoffs.

Thursday Night: Dallas (Win)

Cardinals (4-11) at Falcons (5-10): Atlanta-Two teams for whom the season can't end soon enough!  The Cardinals saw Tom Brady pull a Christmas miracle against them, and the Falcons haven't won since before Thanksgiving.  So, yeah, they're both playing out the stretch.  Atlanta's slightly less bad and playing at home, so they get the nod in a game that will likely be far less exciting than the Peach Bowl.  (Sidebar: that's a quick turnaround for the Mercedes Benz Stadium facilities staff...on a holiday no less!)

Bears (3-12) at Lions (7-8): Detroit-After building all of that momentum and giving themselves a legitimate shot at the playoffs, the Lions had to go blow it last week.  What makes their loss to the Panthers even worse is the fact that every other wild card contender also lost.  And now those playoff chances have taken a tremendous hit.  They can win their last two and still not make it.  Those two games are the only thing in their control, however.  And if they want next week to mean something, they can't lose to the Bears at home.

Broncos (4-11) at Chiefs (12-3): Kansas City-Give the Broncos' new owners some credit for realizing Nathaniel Hackett was in over his head and their offense was a lost cause.  Would it really have mattered if they let him coach the last two games?  Probably not.  But this way they can talk to (and hire) Sean Payton earlier.  Anyway, they've lost 14 straight to the Chiefs, and that will most likely become 15.  The Chiefs will then watch the Monday night game with great interest.

Dolphins (8-7) at Patriots (7-8): New England-Miami must be thrilled December is over!  The Dolphins were 8-3 when the month started.  Now they're 8-7.  Yet, despite this four-game losing streak, they actually have a legit chance to clinch a playoff spot this week with a win and a Jets loss.  The Jets losing thing is definitely possible, but them getting back in the win column is the problem.  New England has also lost two straight to leave its chances for the remaining AFC wild card hanging by a thread, but I think they go into Week 18 still with a chance.

Colts (4-10-1) at Giants (8-6-1): Giants-All the Giants need to do to clinch their first playoff berth in six years is win one of their final two games (they have a game-and-a-half lead, so they don't necessarily need to win as long as the Seahawks lose once, but it would make life so much easier).  And doing so at home against a Colts team they should beat definitely sounds like an easier proposition than going into Philly facing a must-win against the likely No. 1 seed.  So, yeah, this is a big game for Big Blue.

Saints (6-9) at Eagles (13-2): Philadelphia-The situation for the Eagles is the same as it was last week.  If they win, they're the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.  Getting it done this week would be huge, though.  They don't want to go into their final game knowing Dallas still has a shot.  They'd much rather be able to sit some of their starters and, more importantly, give Jalen Hurts an extra week off.  Even without Hurts under center, they should be able to take care of New Orleans at home.

Panthers (6-9) at Buccaneers (7-8): Tampa Bay-Thanks to their offense finally showing up with five minutes left on Christmas night, the Bucs are in position to play that Wild Card home game against Dallas.  All they need to do is win one of their final two games.  They can wrap up the NFC South this week, as a matter of fact, if they beat the Panthers.  Carolina has been playing well of late, so I'm not putting this one in the win column yet, but I'm also not going against Brady when he's got a shot at clinching a playoff berth.

Browns (6-9) at Commanders (7-7-1): Washington-With the exception of Green Bay, everybody in contention for the remaining two NFC wild cards lost last week.  Which was great news for the Commanders, who held on to the 7-seed and know that if they win their last two games, they're in the playoffs.  Both of those games are at home, and next week they play a Dallas team that will be locked into the 5-seed, so that's entirely possible.

Jaguars (7-8) at Texans (2-12-1): Jacksonville-As crazy as it sounds, the Jaguars are in the driver's seat for the AFC South title.  A win this week, a win next week against the Titans (in what, I'd imagine, will probably be the Saturday night game), and Jacksonville has a home playoff game.  Of course, the reason they're in this position is because Houston beat Tennessee last week, and the Texans actually held their own against Dallas and Kansas City.  Can they make it two in a row, though?

49ers (11-4) at Raiders (6-9): San Francisco-I'm still not entirely sold on San Francisco.  I know I should be since their defense is elite and they were in the NFC Championship Game last season.  There's just something I think they're missing, though.  However, I will admit that their path back to the NFC Championship Game is actually pretty good.  They've actually still got a shot at the 1-seed, but it's an outside shot.  They know they're most likely No. 3.

Jets (7-8) at Seahawks (7-8): Seattle-Whoever wins this game will enter its season finale still alive for the playoffs.  Whoever loses is out.  Who would've thunk we'd be saying that about either of these teams on the first day of 2023?  Anyway, Seattle has been one of the surprise teams in the league this season.  The Jets, meanwhile, are still in it despite their quarterback situation.  Traveling cross-country to face an opponent that's very good at home is a very tough assignment for them, though.

Vikings (12-3) at Packers (7-8): Minnesota-Outside of getting blown out by Dallas, virtually all of Minnesota's games this season have been decided by one score, including last week, when they beat the Giants on a 61-yard field goal as time expired.  The one exception was their 23-7 victory over the Packers in Week 1.  That set the tone for both teams' seasons.  Of course, the Packers still think they're in it because of this late-season run they've gone on, but they're gonna find out it was too little, too late.  The Vikings win another one-possession game.

Rams (5-10) at Chargers (9-6): Chargers-A few weeks ago, I wondered aloud when the Chargers would get their acts together and play like they actually wanted to make the playoffs.  Well, three straight wins later, Justin Herbert and Co. are headed to the playoffs!  I'm curious to see how they'll play now that they've clinched and know they'll be a wild card, but they've still got plenty to play for.  For starters, they know the 6-seed will be playing somebody really good, so getting up to No. 5 and visiting the AFC South champion is obviously preferable.

Steelers (7-8) at Ravens (10-5): Baltimore-They flexed this one into Sunday night, and it's likely the first of back-to-back Sunday night games for Baltimore.  If the Ravens win, their game in Cincinnati next week will be for the AFC North title regardless of what happens in the Bengals-Bills game.  Although, part of me in convinced that they flexed this one because they realized if they didn't, they wouldn't have either one.  And what's a season of Sunday Night Football without a Steelers-Ravens matchup?!

Bills (12-3) at Bengals (11-4): Cincinnati-Saving the best game of the week for last!  You know that the NFL thought the chances were pretty good this would be a meaningful game when they scheduled it for after the Rose Bowl, but I doubt even they knew how significant.  The Bills will clinch at least the 2-seed with a win.  If they lose, though, they'll drop to No. 3 and have a loss to Cincinnati.  The Bengals, meanwhile, can clinch the division with a win and a Ravens loss.  But if Baltimore wins, that sets up a head-to-head showdown for the division next Sunday night no matter what.  A Cincinnati loss here, though, would mean the winner of that game is guaranteed the 3-seed, which means a trip to either Buffalo or Kansas City in the Divisional Playoffs.  So, yeah, huge game!  For both teams!

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 142-97-2