A 2030 Problem Emerging

When the IOC revamped the Olympic bid process, it was intended to both streamline the process and make things easier.  More importantly, it was supposed to make things significantly cheaper by eliminating the costly (and lengthy) campaigns that, in the words of IOC President Thomas Bach, "resulted in too many losers."  Now, instead of cities competing against each other, the IOC gauges interest, picks a host, then works hand-in-hand with that city to put forth the best Olympic plan possible.

One of the other features of this new process is that Olympic host cities are no longer selected seven years ahead of time, which had been the standard.  Now, they can basically announce future hosts whenever they want.  Both the 2028 and 2032 Summer Olympics were announced 11 years in advance, and they're already talking about 2036.  On the flip side, they aren't bound by the seven-year timeframe, which is actually coming in handy right now.

The 2026 Winter Olympics were the last Games awarded under the old format.  Milano-Cortina was selected over Stockholm-Are at the IOC Session in 2019.  Under that timetable, the host for 2030 would be chosen later this year.  But it's looking more and more likely that they won't choose the 2030 host city until sometime before the Paris Games next year.  Because they're having trouble finding somebody willing to host them!

Choosing a Winter Olympic host will always be more of a challenge than finding a Summer Olympic host.  Not only are they limited to cold-weather areas in Europe, Asia and North America, they need to find a city that's both big enough to accommodate all of the international visitors and close enough to the mountains, where most (if not all) of the outdoor venues will be.  Plus, since the IOC doesn't want countries building costly new venues that may not get used after the Olympics, they're further limited by the fact that there simply aren't that many places with both a ski jump and a sliding track (and the ones that do would also need to be interested).

Still, the IOC thought they would have three solid options to choose from for 2030, all of which have hosted Winter Olympics before--Sapporo, Japan (1972); Salt Lake City (2002); and Vancouver (2010).  Salt Lake City and Vancouver, especially, would use many of the same venues that were used when they hosted fairly recently (and are now the primary U.S. and Canadian winter sports training centers).  And Sapporo, of course, hosted the race walks and marathons at the Tokyo Games.

Vancouver put together a preliminary bid, but, in October, the BC government decided not to support it because of the proposed cost.  As a result, the bid was withdrawn, leaving just Sapporo and Salt Lake City.  And, with LA hosting in 2028, many assumed that meant Sapporo 2030.

Sapporo had initially considered a bid for 2026, but decided not to since it was clear that the IOC wanted to go back to Europe and wasn't keen on a third straight Winter Olympics in Asia.  Most people figured that if Tokyo 2020 went well, that would put Sapporo in prime position for 2030.  This was, of course, before the 2020 Games were delayed a year (and before Sapporo ended up hosting some events at those Olympics), but Sapporo was still the first official bidder for 2030.

However, the bid, which is almost certainly the preferred choice, has hit a snag.  With the cost overruns related to the Tokyo postponement, there has been an ongoing investigation in Japan regarding bribery and corruption allegations.  As a result, public support for Sapporo has gone from high to lukewarm and organizers were forced to admit it was "difficult to keep fostering momentum."  So, they were left with very little choice other than putting the bid on hold.  They were very clear that the bid wasn't being cancelled, though.

That may be the reason why the IOC has decided to delay its 2030 announcement.  Because there's no question Sapporo would be their preferred site for 2030.  And they're gonna do everything they can to make sure Sapporo stays in the mix.  Because their only other option is Salt Lake City, which is more of a last resort.

Salt Lake City's organizers have even said they'd prefer 2034.  The USOPC has indicated the same thing.  And the reason is pretty obvious.  LA 2028.  That's what I've been saying all along too!  LA 2028 will have 11 years of promotion and build up.  Salt Lake 2030 would get a grand total of a year and half after those Olympics are over!  That's simply not enough time.

Yes, NBC and the USOPC could (and probably would) bundle some of their marketing for 2028 and 2030 should it happen.  But the point remains.  It's not ideal for anybody, and Salt Lake City would certainly get the short end of the stick.  The IOC knows that, too.  Which is why I think Salt Lake 2034 is also their preference.

If they were left with no other option, would the IOC hesitate to announce Salt Lake City as the host for 2030?  Absolutely not!  Salt Lake City delivered a great Winter Olympics (I'd argue the best ever) in 2002 and would certainly be up to the task again.  But that option is also seen as a bit of a last resort.  Which is why the IOC is delaying the decision for 2030, hoping Sapporo changes its mind.

This is the third straight Winter Olympics where the IOC is having trouble finding a host.  In 2022, they were left with Beijing and Almaty, Kazakhstan as the only options.  When they said they wanted to go back to a "more traditional" European host in 2026, it was obvious to everyone that Oslo's bid was their preference.  And they were NOT happy when Oslo withdrew, leaving them with just the bids from Italy and Sweden.  The new process was supposed to make things easier, but it obviously hasn't, leaving them with the situation they're currently facing.

All of which amounts to a larger problem that the IOC knows it needs to address.  There have even been suggestions that they designate three or four Winter Olympic hosts and simply rotate between them.  Climate change is also a concern, especially after a study released just before Beijing 2022 suggesting that Sapporo is the only previous Winter Olympic host that would still be able to at the end of the century.

Whether any of that happens is a long-term issue that the IOC must deal with.  It won't have an impact on 2030.  The IOC would prefer Sapporo, so it's waiting.  If Sapporo's a no-go, then Salt Lake City is the backup plan.  And if Sapporo does end up hosting in 2030, Salt Lake City will be the hands-on favorite for 2034 (they've ruled out a double-awarding, but it wouldn't surprise me if they change their minds about that).

What we do know for certain, however, is that there will be a Winter Olympics in 2030.  Whether they're in Sapporo or Salt Lake City or somewhere else.  Just like we know there'll be a Winter Oympics in 2034.  And 2038.  And 2042, etc., etc.  They'll find somebody to host, even if it's reluctantly.  And even if it's not ideal.