My 2022-23 NFL Picks (Championship Sunday)

We've reached Championship Sunday in the NFL, and it may be the last one.  It was somewhat shocking but also entirely not surprising that Roger Baddell has suggested they may split the Conference Championship Games, playing one on Sunday and the other on Monday night.  This is an incredibly stupid idea for a number of reasons, but you know if Baddell is talking about it in public, that also means it's pretty much a done deal.  It's just a matter of when they decide to do it.

There's also been a suggestion that something the NFL avoided this year is also inevitable--neutral site Conference Championship Games.  Completely opposed to that idea too, and I actually do think there will be enough pushback from the owners to prevent it from actually happening except in extreme circumstances (like we had this year).  The Super Bowl being at a neutral site is something different entirely.  That's determined years in advance. 

The Conference Championship Game, however, should be on one of the team's home field.  That's the entire point of grinding through a 17-game season and trying to have the best record--so you can have home field advantage in the playoffs!  What would be the point of going for the 1-seed if all it means is you get a bye and one home playoff game?  Especially when the 2-seed would be guaranteed at least two (provided they won the first one)?

Anyway, I'm sure we'll hear plenty more about the Sunday/Monday night and netural site Conference Championship plans after the season.  This year's Conference Championship Games feature three of the four teams we saw last year.  That hasn't happened in 30 years, when the Bills were in the middle of their run and the Cowboys played the 49ers in three consecutive NFC Championship Games.  And the only one that isn't back is the team that won the Super Bowl!

And, frankly, I can legitimately see any of the four teams not just winning this week, but winning two weeks from now, too.  It's also very easy to envision any of the four potential Super Bowl matchups coming to fruition.  I know that sounds like a cop out, and that's not what I'm trying to do at all.  I'm just saying there isn't much separating the 49ers and Eagles or the Bengals and Chiefs.  So, even though I'm confident in my picks, I can easily see both games going either way.

Just think about some of the Super Bowl possibilities we have, too.  The Bengals have been to three Super Bowls and played the 49ers in two of them (and were a Rams drive away from making it 3-for-3).  The 49ers had the lead in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LV, only to see the Chiefs score three consecutive touchdowns.  And where do I start with Eagles-Chiefs?  The Kelce brothers!  Andy Reid vs. his former team!  The only potential matchup that doesn't have some sort of already prewritten story is Bengals-Eagles.  Which of course means that's probably what we'll get!

49ers (15-4) at Eagles (15-3): Philadelphia-Even after watching them against the Cowboys last week, I'm still not overly impressed with the 49ers.  They're obviously doing something right.  I get that.  But this team just doesn't scream "Super Bowl champion" to me.  There just seems to be something missing.  I don't know what it is, but it's something.

Yet, they've made it to the NFC Championship Game for the third time in four seasons with their third quarterback of the season, a rookie who still hasn't lost as an NFL starter.  Can Brock Purdy become the first rookie QB to start a Super Bowl?  Or does the run end in Philadelphia against an Eagles team that, last week against the Giants, looked like the one that raced out to a 13-1 start.

Both the 49ers and Eagles have elite defenses, so that's where I think the game will be won.  It won't necessarily be about which defense plays better, though.  It'll be more about which offense is able to get something going against the other defense.  Or at least get enough going consistently to move the ball and put points on the board.  And, this is an important factor, too.  The Eagles' defense is deeper.  So, they can sustain extended San Francisco drives better than the other way around.

I'm also very curious to see how Purdy handles his first playoff road game.  The 49ers haven't lost since Week 7, so they've obviously won on the road during that span.  But they also haven't left the Pacific time zone that entire time.  In fact, they've only played three games in the Eastern or Central time zone all season, two of which were losses to not-very-good teams (the Bears and Falcons).  That was before Purdy took over, so this will be his first start in a different time zone.  Against a ridiculously good Eagles team.  I'm not saying it will be a factor.  I wouldn't be surprised if it is, though.

Will the fact that the game is being played in Philadelphia ultimately be the deciding factor in who wins?  Probably not.  It'll, again, be about which offense is able to do something more consistently against the other team's suffocating defense.  Which is why I think Jalen Hurts is actually the most important player in this game.  He'll make the plays.  He'll do what he has to do.  And he'll get the Eagles to the Super Bowl.

Bengals (14-4) at Chiefs (15-3): Kansas City-Let's give some credit to the Chiefs.  Not only are they playing in their fifth straight AFC Championship Game, they're hosting their fifth straight AFC Championship Game.  What makes that even more remarkable is the fact that they had hosted a grand total of ZERO AFC Championship Games prior to this record run.

Of course, Cincinnati doesn't care about any of that.  The Bengals went into Kansas City for the AFC Championship Game last year, were down 21-10 at halftime, and won in overtime, holding the Chiefs to just a field goal the rest of the way.  They've actually won three straight against the Chiefs, all in Kansas City, so they've got plenty of confidence heading into this year's rematch.  Although, they also seem a little too confident.  I'd even say it's bordering on cocky.

Cincinnati has taken everything about the unique playoff contingencies the NFL was forced to come up with (on the fly) as a slight.  They didn't like that they might've had home field against the Ravens decided by a coin toss.  They didn't like that they had to travel to Buffalo last week.  They really didn't like that the NFL was selling tickets to a potential Bills-Chiefs game in Atlanta!  They've used all that as motivation, playing the "they don't want us to win" card.  Whether that's accurate or not (it isn't), that's how the Bengals perceived it.  And your perception is your reality.

So, it should probably be no surprise, then, that Cincinnati is actually favored to make it back to the Super Bowl.  It makes sense when you consider the Bengals' track record, not just in Kansas City, but as an outstanding road playoff team over the last two seasons, coupled with the uncertainty surrounding Patrick Mahomes' ankle.  Although, it would be equally foolish to count out Mahomes and his coach, Andy Reid, who has more playoff victories than anybody other than Bill Belichick.

All week, we've been hearing about all the reasons why the Bengals are gonna win.  I think people are forgetting how good Kansas City is.  And the Chiefs are certainly just as aware as the Bengals that Joe Burrow is 3-0 against them in his career.  They'd like to make him (and the Bengals) shut up.  There's no better way to do that than unleashing that defense on Cincinnati's beleaguered offensive line.  They won't let the Bengals dominate the game the way they did in Buffalo.  And I think that'll make the difference.  Which is why I'm also picking the Chiefs.

Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs: 6-2
Overall: 172-107-2