My 2022-23 NFL Picks (Divisional)

Last week, I did something that I don't remember ever doing before.  I went undefeated in my picks.  I went back-and-forth about two games, but I ultimately went with both the Giants and Jaguars, and they both pulled off the win!  Will I go undefeated again this week?  Highly doubtful.  I feel fairly confident about two games, but the other two will be outstanding, close battles.

It's often said that Divisional Playoff weekend is the best football of the season, but I don't know how these four games will possibly compare to what we saw last week.  The only duds were the first and last game.  The four in the middle were spectacular, including that Jacksonville comeback, that 98-yard fumble return by Cincinnati, the Bills-Dolphins game that took ridiculously long, and that back-and-forth contest between the Giants and Vikings.  Seriously, how can this week compete?

Jaguars (10-8) at Chiefs (14-3): Kansas City-That Jaguars comeback against the Chargers really was something!  Trevor Lawrence looked totally overwhelmed in the first half, when it looked like Jacksonville would get blown out.  But he was a completely different quarterback while leading that comeback in the second half.  The Jaguars have been looking for a franchise QB for a while, and they've finally got one!

Of course, taking on Kansas City is a completely different proposition entirely.  The Chiefs are looking to get to their fifth straight AFC Championship Game, and they're well-rested after getting the bye.  Kansas City hasn't just been in this position before, they've won in a variety of ways in the Divisional Playoffs.  That experience is huge this time of year, and it's part of the reason we always see the Chiefs in this spot.  That's not to say Jacksonville can't win.  It'll just be a very difficult proposition.  The Jaguars will need to play an almost perfect game and hope the Chiefs make some mistakes.

Although, as we've seen throughout Andy Reid's tenure as head coach, the Chiefs rarely make mistakes in the playoffs.  Super Bowl LV is the only time they've ever been outplayed in a postseason game under Reid.  And it's doubtful they get outplayed here.  The mentor, Reid, beats his protege, Doug Pederson.  

Giants (10-7-1) at Eagles (14-3): Philadelphia-How about the NFC East!?  Two years ago, Washington won the division at 7-9.  This year, the division didn't just have three playoff teams, the three of them make up 75 percent of the NFC Divisional Playoff field!  The NFC East is definitely back!  And, with the Giants playing the Eagles this weekend, the division is guaranteed a berth in the NFC Championship Game for the first time since Philadelphia's Super Bowl run five years ago.

This is actually the Eagles' second consecutive home game against the Giants, who had a stopover in Minnesota in between.  I'm not sure how much we can take from that Week 18 meeting, either.  The Giants were already locked into the 6-seed, so they sat a lot of starters.  The Eagles needed to win that game to clinch the 1-seed, which they did.  And that week off was incredibly helpful for Jalen Hurts, who should be good to go after his shoulder strain.

I don't think you can really take much from that regular season finale.  You can take a lot from their first regular season meeting in early December, though.  The Eagles didn't just win that game at Met Life Stadium.  They dominated it, 48-22.  Yes, the Giants had a bad day that day, but it exposed the fact that Philadelphia is just a better team.  They show it again and secure a home NFC Championship Game.

Bengals (13-4) at Bills (14-3): Buffalo-Less than a month after the scary Damar Hamlin injury, the Bills and Bengals finally meet.  Only this time it's with a berth in the AFC Championship Game at stake.  And this time, the game is in Buffalo, which is a point of contention for the Bengals, who, for the second week in a row, have an issue with the site of their playoff game.  Except this time, I agree with them.

When the NFL came up with its playoff contingencies, they decided that a Bills-Chiefs AFC Championship will be held at a neutral site (Atlanta) because the Bills would've been the 1-seed had they both reached 14 regular season wins.  However, had the Bills-Bengals game been completed and Cincinnati won, both teams would've had the same record and the Bengals would've had the tiebreaker, meaning a playoff game would've been played in Cincinnati.  So how come the Divisional Playoff between the two isn't also being played at a neutral site?

And the fact that the game is in Buffalo is a HUGE advantage for the Bills.  If they were playing in Cincinnati or at a neutral site, I'd like the Bengals' chances a lot better.  But, with the Bills playing at home, in front of their fans, and the emotion of Hamlin being in the stadium (I hope he gets a moment with Tee Higgins beforehand), that's all too much to overcome.  Buffalo gets back to the AFC Championship Game.

Cowboys (13-5) at 49ers (14-4): Dallas-Cowboys-49ers in the playoffs!  Sure brings back some great memories, doesn't it?  And this one has the makings of another Dallas-San Francisco playoff classic.  Because they both dominated their Wild Card games last weekend, and it's hard to see either one losing if they play like that again.  But, of course, one of them has to.

Dallas played on Monday night (on the opposite side of the country) and got home early Tuesday morning.  San Francisco, meanwhile, played at home on Saturday.  Will those extra two days and the Cowboys' travel miles make a difference?  Will the magic of Brock Purdy that has led to this incredible winning streak result in the 49ers making a return trip to the NFC Championship Game?  Or will Dallas finally get back there for the first time since the 1995 season?

Perhaps the better question is will Dallas be able to get enough going against that stifiling 49er defense that allowed the fewest points in the league this season?  Purdy might be getting the headlines, but the defense is the real reason San Francisco has won 10 in a row.  As I've been saying all year, though, I think Dallas is one of the most complete teams in the NFL.  They showed it last week, when they finally won a road playoff game.  Now that they've gotten that monkey off their back, they win another and reach their first NFC Championship Game since the Aikman-Irvin-Emmitt era.

Last Week: 6-0
Overall: 170-105-2