The World Cup Is Here

At long last, the 2022 World Cup has begun.  There was plenty of criticism directed at Qatar in the lead-up, from the timing to the human rights record to the decision not to sell alcohol to the pressure on players to protest.  Some of it was warranted.  Some not.  But I'm in agreement with those who've spoken out about the fact that they had no problem with FIFA letting Qatar buy the World Cup 12 years ago, so why are these suddenly problems now?  And with the players, who've said that they're in Qatar to do a job...and that's to play soccer and try to win a world championship.

Fortunately, all of that is over and the tournament is here.  Was that Opening Ceremony unnecessarily over the top?  Absolutely!  But it was also kinda cool!  And, if the first game is any indication, playing the World Cup in the middle of the club season, when the players are already in midseason form, may not necessarily be a bad thing.

What should we expect over the next four weeks in Qatar, though?  And who'll end up lifting the trophy at the end?  Will Messi finally win his first World Cup?  Will Neymar?  Can France repeat?  There are plenty of countries who realistically feel they can win, but only will.

Group A: Netherlands, Ecuador
Qatar has already made World Cup history as the first host country to lose its opening game.  Which, unfortunately, means the Qataris will likely join South Africa in 2010 as the only hosts not to advance out of the group phase.  They needed to beat Ecuador to have any chance of getting out of the group.  Seeing as that didn't happen, I expect Ecuador to join the Netherlands as the second team to come out of the group (which I already thought before they beat Qatar).  If they play like they did in the opening game, they could even beat the Dutch.

Group B: England, United States
The opening game against Wales might be the biggest game of the tournament for the United States.  You can't assume a result against England, and you don't want to be chasing points against Iran in the last game of group play.  So, I don't think it's hyperbole to call the Wales game a must-win.  If the U.S. beats Wales, I see them joining England in the round of 16.  If they don't, getting out of this very difficult group will be hard.  Not impossible, but harder than it needs to be.

Group C: Argentina, Mexico
Argentina is one of the pre-tournament favorites after finally winning their first major trophy of the Messi Era at last year's Copa America.  I don't think they're as good as the 2014 squad that lost to Germany in the final at the Maracana, but their status as one of the favorites is well-deserved.  For the second spot, I give Mexico the slight edge over Poland.  El Tri always find a way to reach the round of 16.

Group D: France, Denmark
Thankfully, France and Denmark play in the second game, not the last game, so we won't have a repeat of them passing the ball around the midfield for 90 minutes with neither trying to score.  Denmark, of course, had that great semifinal run at the Euro last year, so it wouldn't completely shock me if they beat the French and won the group.  France does have history working against them, too.  The last three defending champs failed to get out of the group phase.  I can't, in good conscience, say that'll happen again this year.  Even without Benzema, France is the best team in this group.

Group E: Germany, Spain
I've gone on and on about the FIFA rankings before, so I'm not gonna get into how ridiculous it is that Germany and Spain ended up in the same group.  I just feel bad for Japan and Costa Rica.  Especially since the Germans are on a mission to redeem themselves after finishing last in their group in 2018.  Spain did the same thing as defending champs in 2014.  The winner of the Spain-Germany game tops the group.  I think that'll be the Germans.

Group F: Croatia, Belgium
As you know, I don't think Belgium is nearly as good as their ranking implies.  Which is one of the biggest flaws of the FIFA rankings.  But I promised I'm not gonna get into that, so I won't.  Croatia made the final four years ago in Russia, which is a big challenge to live up to.  They do have Luka Modric, though, so, at the very least, they should get out of the group.  The team I'm interested to see is Canada.  They won't advance, but how will they perform in their first World Cup since 1986 as they get ready to co-host in 2026?

Group G: Brazil, Cameroon
Brazil is a popular pick to win its sixth World Cup.  And it's easy to see why.  They're the most complete team in the tournament and will be very hard to beat.  The Brazilians have never failed to advance out of the group, so the competition really comes down to one spot.  Which, again, could be decided in the first game when Switzerland plays Cameroon on Thanksgiving.  Call me crazy, but I see Cameroon winning that one and keeping up the tradition of at least one African nation in the round of 16.

Group H: Portugal, Ghana
This is by far the weakest of the eight groups.  Pretty Boy and Co. will likely win it by default, even though I'm not sure they would even advance if they were in another group.  The second spot is wide open, though.  And the fact that Uruguay and Ghana are in the same group makes me think back to their quarterfinal in 2010 and Suarez's brilliant intentional hand ball that saved the game for Uruguay.  Twelve years later, I think Ghana gets its revenge and beats Uruguay to earn a place opposite Brazil in the round of 16.

Round of 16: Netherlands vs. United States, Argentina vs. Denmark, Germany vs. Belgium, Brazil vs. Ghana, England vs. Ecuador, France vs. Mexico, Croatia vs. Spain, Portugal vs. Cameroon
Winning Group A vs. not winning Group A will be such a major difference.  Because second place likely faces the Dutch.  First place gets a weak second-place team and almost guaranteed quarterfinal berth.  Which isn't to say the U.S. can't beat the Dutch.  In fact, I think they make the quarterfinals regardless of opponent.  The other teams I have advancing are Argentina, Germany, Brazil, England, France, Croatia and Portugal.

Quarterfinals: United States vs. Argentina, Germany vs. Brazil, England vs. France, Croatia vs. Portugal
It's in the quarterfinals where I see a lot of stories ending.  Even if the U.S. beats the Netherlands, they're not beating Messi.  France's title defense will also come to an end against England, which, don't forget, made the final of the Euro last year.  I've also got Brazil winning that battle of heavyweights, while Portugal keeps taking advantage of a weak draw to get to the semifinals (which is exactly how they won Euro 2016, BTW).

Semifinals: Argentina vs. Brazil, England vs. Portugal
For some reason, it took them much longer than it should have to cancel that suspended Argentina-Brazil game from South American qualifying that didn't matter for either one of them.  Obviously, if they were to play in a World Cup semifinal, it would be a much different situation.  But the intensity would be the same.  This time, the Selecao get their revenge for Copa America, beat their rivals, and keep Messi from winning the World Cup.  Pretty Boy also sees his dream of winning the World Cup end, as England, after years of underachieving, finally gets back to its first World Cup final since 1966.

Final: Brazil vs. England
Both Brazil and England lost in the final of their continental championship last summer.  So they both come into the World Cup realistically thinking they can win the whole thing.  As you can tell by this pick, I think the same thing.  Either Neymar cements his place among the other Brazilian legends or Harry Kane leads a new generation of English stars to their crowning moment.  It'll be Neymar.  This will be his moment.  Sure, he led Brazil to that home Olympic gold at Maracana six years ago.  But this is the World Cup.  This trumps Olympic gold.

So, there you have it.  Count me among the many who thinks Brazil is the tournament favorite.  They've had a couple disappointing runs of late.  Since winning the 2002 World Cup, they've had three quarterfinal losses and that embarrassing performance against Germany in the 2014 semifinals.  Twenty years later, as the World Cup returns to Asia for the first time since then, Brazil returns to the top step and hoists the trophy for a record sixth time.