Starting Hot Stove Season

I'm SHOCKED!  SHOCKED, I tell you, that Clayton Kershaw re-signed with the Dodgers on a one-year deal!  That's going to be the case from now until whenever Kershaw decides to retire.  He'll enter every offseason as a free agent before signing a one- or two-year deal to stay in LA.  So they might as well not even include him on the free agent lists every year.

Kershaw likely won't be the only high-profile free agent who ends up re-signing with his old team.  There can be some surprises, of course.  There are every winter in free agency.  Take last year for example.  We all thought it was a foregone conclusion Freddie Freeman would stay in Atlanta, only for him to end up with the Dodgers (and end up firing his agents for botching his Braves contract as a result).

Aaron Judge is the biggest name out there this offseason and will command a huge contract after his record-setting season.  Still, most people figure he'll stay with the Yankees, with the Giants seen as their only real competition (potentially setting up a very awkward situation on Opening Day when those two teams meet at Yankee Stadium).  Likewise, Anthony Rizzo, despite opting out of his deal, will also likely be back in pinstripes next season on a longer-term contract.

There are other free agents who I'd be surprised to see go anywhere.  Justin Verlander is the first name that comes to mind.  And, while he'll test the waters and I wouldn't be completely shocked if he goes, I think the most likely scenario is that Jacob deGrom returns to the Mets.

But, there are also plenty of big names who'll be on the move.  That doesn't even take trades into account either!  Or the Japanese outfielder who'll likely be posted this winter and draw heavy interest from multiple big-market clubs.  Which will obviously have an impact on the free agent market, as well.

With so many free agents who play the same position, too, we might see free agents who are effectively traded for each other.  And they'll be setting the market for each other, too.  When all the dust settles, though, here's where I see 10 of this year's top free agents playing on Opening Day 2023 (not including those I already mentioned)...

Trea Turner, Braves-All of the shortstops need to be taken together since they'll all have a direct bearing on each other.  The question is who'll sign first?  Turner will be the most expensive, and he probably won't be returning to the Dodgers.  Plenty of teams will want him, but I'm just playing a hunch he ends up in Atlanta, which means the next guy on our list will go elsewhere.

Dansby Swanson, Cubs-Call me crazy, but I can see the Cubs trying to make a big splash in free agency.  They aren't really that far from contending.  And Dansby Swanson is the type of guy I can see them going for.  But then again, maybe not, since it's also rumored that they're looking to trade Ian Happ and will likely lose Willson Contreras, who are currently their two best players.  All the more reason to give Swanson a lot of money and build around him.

Xander Bogaerts, Twins-Boston needs the money to re-sign Rafael Devers and already has Trevor Story on the roster.  Which leads me to believe Xander Bogaerts will be wearing a different uniform next season.  I bet he takes a one- or two-year deal with an opt-out so that he can test the waters again.  As for 2023, I'll say he's in Minnesota.  Because they'll have the $20 million to throw at him after...

Carlos Correa, Dodgers-Correa opted out of his deal and has publicly said he'd be welcome to returning to Minnesota.  But, seeing as the Dodgers won't be re-signing Turner and Correa is the next-best shortstop on the market, I see him heading west.  They offer will simply be too high for anybody else to match.

Willson Contreras, Cardinals-Could something like this actually happen?  Yadi Molina retired, so the Cardinals need a catcher.  And Contreras is by far the best catcher available on the market.  He'll have plenty of suitors, some of which may be willing to overpay for him, which would probably knock St. Louis out of the mix.  In terms of the best fit for Contreras, though, I don't think anyone else can compete.

Jose Abreu, Astros-In one of those free agent prediction lists, I saw Abreu to the Astros, which I found particularly intriguing.  Because it actually makes a whole lot of sense!  Yuli Gurriel is also a free agent, so, if he goes, they'll need a first baseman.  Now just imagine Jose Abreu in that lineup instead of Yuli Gurriel.  Scary, right?

Brandon Nimmo, Giants-Steve Cohen has a lot of money and obviously isn't shy about spending it.  He doesn't have an endless supply, though, and there's this thing called the luxury tax (which he's already proven he doesn't care about), too.  And, seeing as the Mets have like six starting outfielders and Nimmo's a free agent, I can see him going elsewhere.  Especially since he'll be one of the top outfielders available who won't break the bank.  If the Giants don't get Judge, I can easily see them pursuing Nimmo instead.

Carlos Rodon, Rangers-Assuming Verlander stays with the Astros, Rodon is the best free agent starting pitcher out there after deGrom.  The Rangers have money, are willing to spend it, and badly need starting pitching.  Which means they'll be in on all the front-line starters.  They'll probably make a push for deGrom, but if they don't get him, Rodon's not a bad alternative.  Who also happens to be far less expensive, allowing them to have some extra money to spend elsewhere.

Noah Syndergaard, Nationals-He's already played for the Mets and Phillies, so why not go for the entire NL East?!  Syndergaard's an interesting case.  He's a No. 3 or 4 starter on a good team, but he's a No. 1 or 2 on a weaker team.  So, does he go for the No. 3 or 4 money to play for a contender?  Or the No. 1 or 2 money to pitch for a team that isn't good?  Or, does the same thing that happened last season happen again and he goes from a team like the Nationals to a team in the hunt at the trade deadline?

Aroldis Chapman, Marlins-Yes, his Yankees career ended spectacularly, and there's little to no chance he re-signs with them.  But Chapman can still be an elite closer (and I mean closer, which was part of the problem in the second half of last season).  So you know someone's gonna take a chance on him as a closer.  Probably a not-so-good National League team that will hope he bounces back, then can leverage him as a trade chip to a contender at the deadline.  A team like the Marlins.