My 2022 NFL Picks (Week 12)

If the last two weeks have proven anything, it's that I have no idea what the hell I'm doing when it comes to making NFL picks!  Either that or it's just another example of the league's parity.  Either way, it hasn't been the best two weeks for me.  (It also might be a sign that I need to give up on the Rams and Steelers and accept the fact that the 49ers are actually good.)

As we hit Thanksgiving, we also have an extraordinary situation where all eight teams in the Eastern divisions are above .500.  Every in the AFC East, in fact, is at least two games above .500!  I doubt it'll continue, though.  Thanks to the ridiculous 18-week schedule, everybody still has either six or seven games left (the super-late byes are also incredibly annoying).  That's a lot of time!

Bills (7-3) at Lions (4-6): Buffalo-The Bills, who are starting to become as regular a part of Thanksgiving as the Lions and Cowboys, return to Detroit for the second time in five days.  The home team, meanwhile, enters their annual Thanksgiving tilt on a three-game winning streak, including Sunday's romp over the Giants at Met Life.  It's nice to see the Lions are actually playing well for their annual national showcase.  That doesn't mean they'll beat the Bills, though.

Giants (7-3) at Cowboys (7-3): Dallas-Well, the Cowboys sure made a statement against Minnesota, didn't they?  That wasn't just impressive, it was such a dominant performance that CBS actually switched off what was supposed to be the national game!  Needless to say, that's a great way to enter their Thanksgiving contest, especially when compared to the Giants' performance on Sunday.  That game was essentially a must-win for the Giants.  Now they need to find a way to win in Dallas to avoid falling effectively two games behind the Cowboys, who already beat them on a Monday night in Week 3.

Patriots (6-4) at Vikings (8-2): Minnesota-Having the short week after that nightmare against Dallas is either a really good thing or a really bad thing for the Vikings.  And we're still not sure whether it was just a bad day at the office or a sign that their 8-2 record is really a mirage (they have a -2 scoring differential for the season, but that's based mainly on the Cowboys game).  We'll get a chance to find out against a Patriots team that needed a punt return touchdown on literally the last play of the game to beat the Jets on Sunday.

Buccaneers (5-5) at Browns (3-7): Tampa Bay-One more week until serial sexual harasser Deshaun Watson is allowed to return to the Browns lineup!  Yes, it's beyond ridiculous that I just typed that sentence.  Fortunately, Cleveland's remaining games will be irrelevant.  That'll be especially true after Brady drops them to 3-8.  And, considering how bad the entire NFC South was a few weeks ago, seeing the Bucs as a 6-5 division leader will be refreshing.

Bengals (6-4) at Titans (7-3): Tennessee-For the first time in a while, Cincinnati is sitting in playoff position.  It won't be easy for the Bengals to hold on to that wild card, though, with division leaders Tennessee and Kansas City (aka two of the teams they beat in the playoffs last season) as their next two opponents.  So, that 6-4 could easily become 6-6.  Because I don't see them beating Mike Vrabel's unheralded (but very good) Titans.

Texans (1-8-1) at Dolphins (7-3): Miami-Since we saw the Dolphins last, their brethren from 50 years ago popped the champagne and they've gotten some company at the top of the crowded AFC playoff picture.  Miami is still holding down the No. 2 seed, but barely, and has three straight road games coming up (including two straight on the West Coast).  So, needless to say, losing at home to the worst team in the league would be bad.

Bears (3-8) at Jets (6-4): Jets-Man, the Jets just cannot beat the Patriots!  Just when you think they've run out of ways to lose to New England, they come up with something new!  Anyway, the good news is they don't play the Patriots again this season.  The even better news is that their opponent this week is the Bears.  Even with their quarterback dysfunction, the Jets are better than Chicago.  More importantly, with trips to Minnesota and Buffalo coming up and four of their last six on the road, they need to beat the Bears if they have any hope at continuing the season into the third week of January.

Falcons (5-6) at Commanders (6-5): Washington-Don't look now, but Washington is on a roll.  And the Commanders will be a team nobody wants to face in December.  The Falcons, meanwhile, still have a shot in the NFC South, and they're just a game-and-a-half out of a wild card spot.  So, this is a big game for both teams, especially since the winner will have the tiebreaker.  I like the way the Commanders are playing a little bit more, and the game is in DC, so they're the pick.

Broncos (3-7) at Panthers (3-8): Carolina-Neither one of these teams is good.  So, it's really just a matter of which one will be less bad that given week.  And, strangely, I think Carolina is the less bad team right now.  The Broncos have had issues scoring all season.  It's not like the Panthers have been lighting up the scoreboard, either (they were held to a field goal last week in Baltimore).  But they play better at home, which is where this game will be played.

Ravens (7-3) at Jaguars (3-7): Baltimore-Last season, it was right around this time when the Ravens began their fall from the division lead to out of the playoffs entirely.  Fortunately, they've got a few things going for them this year.  First, their defense is playing much better.  Second, the AFC North isn't nearly as strong.  Third, their stretch run is a lot more manageable this season.  They do have a lot of division games left, though, and you never know how those are gonna go.  So they really need to take care of business in Jacksonville.

Chargers (5-5) at Cardinals (4-7): Chargers-It's the same story with both of these teams.  You never know which version is gonna show up.  Will we get the Chargers that played most of the game against Kansas City or the ones that gave Mahomes and Kelce enough time at the end to win it?  And will it be the Cardinals who had that comeback against the Raiders or the Cardinals who clearly forgot their game on Monday was in Mexico City, not Glendale?  The Chargers are slightly more consistent, so they get the nod here.

Raiders (3-7) at Seahawks (6-4): Seattle-When the Seahawks left for Munich, they had a game-and-a-half division lead.  They now find themselves tied with San Francisco in the division and barely hanging on to a wild card (they lead the Commanders, who haven't had their bye yet, by a half-game).  So, beating an inconsistent Raiders team is imperative if they want to remain in the playoff hunt as the calendar flips to December.

Rams (3-7) at Chiefs (8-2): Kansas City-This season is not going as planned for the defending champs.  The Rams have lost four straight to go from 3-3 to 3-7, and things don't get any easier this week with a visit to Kansas City.  It sounds weird to say, but the Chiefs have quietly made their way to the top of the AFC.  They've been winning close games, too, and winning them in different ways.  Are they peaking too early?  Perhaps.  But they'll enter December 9-2 regardless.

Saints (4-7) at 49ers (6-4): San Francisco-On Monday night, as the 49ers were putting the finishing touches on their win over the Cardinals in Mexico City, Joe Buck called them Super Bowl contenders.  Sorry, Joe, but that's a bit of a stretch!  They are very good, though.  And with their schedule the rest of the way, winning the NFC West is an entirely realistic thought.  They'll start a three-game homestand by beating New Orleans.

Packers (4-7) at Eagles (9-1): Philadelphia-After losing for the first time this season, Philadelphia's follow-up wasn't exactly impressive.  The Eagles struggled to move the ball all day against the Colts.  But...they managed to get a touchdown at the end, which was enough for the win.  Now they get the Packers, who essentially need to win out to have any shot.  That won't happen.

Steelers (3-7) at Colts (4-6-1): Pittsburgh-When they set this as the Monday night game to conclude Thanksgiving weekend, it looked like a good one on paper between two teams they expected to be playoff contenders.  Instead, they're both struggling (although, the Colts have been better in their two games under Jeff Saturday).  So it's not as glamorous a matchup as they thought!  Call me crazy, but after last week, I can see the Steelers winning this one.

Last Week: 7-7
Overall: 91-72-1