My 2022 NFL Picks (Week 11)

If the season ended today, all four AFC East teams would be in the playoffs.  And the Commanders are 5-5, so all eight teams in the two East divisions are .500 or better.  That stat is even crazier now that we're starting to pay attention to the playoff race.  Will it stay that way?  Probably not.  Especially since the division schedules were backloaded, but, as we approach Thanksgiving, I think we know which divisions are the two best in football.

Thursday Night: Green Bay (Loss)

Bears (3-7) at Falcons (4-6): Atlanta-Atlanta's gonna stick around in the playoff race all season, huh?  The Falcons losing last Thursday night in Carolina wasn't that big of a surprise, seeing as they struggled to beat the Panthers just 10 days earlier.  Now they get a Bears team which, outside of that one random game against the Patriots, has shown no ability to stop anybody.  They can put up points, but typically end up losing 35-32.

Browns (3-6) vs Bills (6-3): Buffalo-After losing the game of the year, the Bills went from first to sixth in the AFC!  How insane is that!?  The Bills certainly aren't the sixth-best team in the AFC!  And now they can't even play at home because of the snowstorm in Buffalo.  Instead, they'll play the first of consecutive games in Detroit.  They'll be right back there on Thursday to play the Lions.  Can they win at Ford Field twice in a week to get back on track?

Eagles (8-1) at Colts (4-5-1): Philadelphia-The '72 Dolphins popped the champagne on Monday night when the Eagles fell to the Commanders.  Critics were all over Philadelphia after every game with their arguments why the Eagles aren't that good.  Well, they got their wish against Washington.  The Eagles aren't undefeated anymore.  They'll just have to settle for being 9-1 on Thanksgiving.

Rams (3-6) at Saints (3-7): Rams-Needless to say, this isn't how the Rams saw their Super Bowl defense going.  I forget how long it is, but I saw a stat the other day saying that they have the worst record through nine games for the defending champion in quite a while.  Things aren't exactly going much better in New Orleans, where the Saints' new head coach seems to be in a bit over his head.  Can a win here kick the Rams into high gear heading into the season's final month?

Lions (3-6) at Giants (7-2): Giants-One more win is all the Giants need to snap their streak 10-loss seasons.  It's also crazy to think that with the 17-game schedule, you need to win eight games to avoid double-digit losses.  Anyway, they'll beat the Lions this week to take care of that.  Which is good.  Since their remaining schedule is brutal!  Five division games and Minnesota left.  Can they win one or two of those to hang on to their wild card spot?

Panthers (3-7) at Ravens (6-3): Baltimore-Last season, Baltimore was in first place at Thanksgiving only to fade badly in December and miss the playoffs entirely.  They're hoping history won't repeat itself this year.  Of course, the difference this season is that they'll have a much bigger division lead.  The Ravens will hit the stretch run with a 7-3 record.

Commanders (5-5) at Texans (1-7-1): Washington-Count Washington out at your own risk.  On Monday night, the Commanders gave notice that they'll be a team nobody wants to play down the stretch.  Which is bad news for the rest of the NFC East!  They'll also join the Patriots as last-place teams with a winning record (and potentially a wild card position) after they knock off the team with the worst record in the league.

Raiders (2-7) at Broncos (3-6): Denver-Both of these teams came into the season with high expectations that they certainly haven't lived up to.  The Raiders were a playoff team last season, but even Josh McDaniels has said are rebuilding.  The Broncos, meanwhile, thought Russell Wilson was the answer, yet have had little to no offense in most of their games.  So, which one will be less bad this week?  The game's in Denver, so I'll go with the Broncos.

Cowboys (6-3) at Vikings (8-1): Minnesota-Another matchup where both teams will have the quick turnaround for Thanksgiving games.  Call me crazy, but I think the Minnesota Vikings might just be the best team in the NFL.  And, now that the Eagles have a loss, home field advantage is suddenly in play.  Home.  Which is exactly where they play their next three and five of their next six.  They'll win the NFC North easily.  This long stretch of home games will likely determine whether they also get the bye or not.

Bengals (5-4) at Steelers (3-6): Pittsburgh-When the Steelers and Bengals met in Cincinnati in Week 1, Pittsburgh won in overtime.  Ten weeks later, that's still their only victory over an AFC team all season.  Yet, if they beat the Bengals again, they'll only be a game behind them in the division and enter the home stretch with hope.  Can they make the playoffs?  Absolutely not!  But they'll go a long way towards making sure Cincinnati doesn't make it either.

Chiefs (7-2) at Chargers (5-4): Kansas City-They flexed this one into Sunday night, giving the Chargers back-to-back Sunday night games.  For some reason, they struggle in primetime games, though.  They needed OT to beat Denver on a Monday night, lost last week, and lost to the Chiefs on a Thursday night in Week 2.  The Chiefs who, don't look now, are suddenly the 1-seed in the AFC.  A win here to sweep the season series with the Chargers would essentially wrap up another division title for Kansas City.

49ers (5-4) vs Cardinals (4-6): Arizona-England, Germany, now Mexico to finish off this year's slate of international games.  And the matchup at Azteca takes us back to the NFL's first foray into Mexico City, with the 49ers meeting the Cardinals.  That was a big win for Arizona last week to stay relevant in the playoff race.  San Francisco, meanwhile, currently holds the 7-seed in the NFC.  The Cardinals have had the edge in this series in recent years.  So, judging by how NFC West division games usually follow that script, they're the pick.

*GREY CUP* Argonauts vs Blue Bombers: Winnipeg-From Mexico to Canada, as I give you my traditional bonus pick with the Grey Cup.  The Winnipeg Blue Bombers, who hadn't won the Grey Cup since 1990 before winning in 2019 are now looking for their third straight.  They can become the first team to do that since Edmonton won five in a row from 1978-82.  As much as I liked what I saw from Toronto last week in the East final, I'm not sure they're stopping that Winnipeg juggernaut.

Last Week: 6-8
This Week: 0-1
Overall: 84-66-1