No More Perfect Number

As we near the end of the group stage in this World Cup, we also near the end of the perfect 32-team field size.  Starting in 2026, the field expands to 48 teams divided into 16 groups of three.  The evenly-divided eight groups of four will be a thing of the past, and so will the simultaneous final group games.  Which usually leads to plenty of crazy swings in the group standings as those games play out.

With the groups of three, simultaneous games won't be possible.  In fact, there won't be any simultaneous games at all moving forward.  All 80 games will be played in their own exclusive window (which is something FIFA wanted and one of the reasons for the expansion).  Which will certainly take away some of that excitement, especially on the final match day.

Some critics have pointed to the non-simultaneous final games as a source for future corruption.  They think there will be more games like France-Denmark in 2018, when they knew they were both likely to advance, so they spent 90 minutes passing the ball back-and-forth around the midfield and neither team even attempted to score.  Some are also quick to point out that they only went to the simultaneous final games because teams knew exactly what they had to do to guarantee a certain matchup in the knockout round (or help someone else advance), so they made sure that would be the result.

While those concerns are understandable, I think they're unfounded.  Simply put, teams won't be able to finagle results that easily.  Not when they're only playing two group games each and group play will only consist of three total games per group!

Think about it.  If you lose your first game, you know you have to win the second one.  Same thing if your first game is a draw.  If you win your first game, your chances of advancing to the knockout round are probably pretty good as long as you don't get blown out, but even then, you'll want to win and guarantee first place, which gives you an "easier" opponent in the round of 32.  So, what are the chances both teams will be content with a tie or try to guarantee a certain result?  Slim to none!

There's another element at play here, too.  The schedule won't really permit it.  We're not talking about two teams playing their last game a day before the other two teams in their group.  We're talking about an odd number of teams, so not everybody's gonna have the same number of games played at the same time!  One team will finish group play days before the other two teams in the group.  So, while it's theoretically possible in the last game, that first team will have no idea how the group standings will play out!

The proposed schedule in the United 2026 bid book has four games being played most days.  That means in Groups A & B, the first team will be done with both its group games by Day 6, but the other two won't finish until Day 10 (which is the day after teams in Groups O & P will play their first game!).  So, that game on Day 6 will be one team's first and the other's second.  Which means it would be nearly impossible for them to conspire for a particular result!

To me, that little scheduling quirk is a bigger potential issue than the unlikely possibility of teams prearranging the result.  Forgetting about the idea of teams being done with group play before others even play their first game for a second, there are some long breaks in there.  Somebody in each group will have more than a week between their two group games.  And the teams that play both of their games early in group play will go a long time before they play again in the round of 32.

This likely isn't a problem for the top teams, who figure to get those week-long breaks before the start of the knockout round (I didn't check out the entire mock schedule, but I'm assuming it's position 1 in each group that plays the first two games).  In fact, they probably want those breaks (especially after this World Cup, when they have a game every four days).  And you know FIFA's OK with it.  Otherwise, they wouldn't have pushed so hard for 16 additional teams and 16 additional games.

If FIFA was concerned about possible result fixing, they wouldn't have settled on groups of three.  But, in order to get the 48 teams and 80 games they wanted, they knew that 16 groups of three was the only way to do it that made sense.  Sure, it meant the loss of the simultaneous final games, but that was a trade-off they were obviously willing to make.

In response to the criticism of the format, somebody from CONCACAF said that the 16 groups of three aren't "set in stone" and that they were "still considering" 12 groups of four.  Sorry, but that doesn't make much sense.  You know how I know that?  Because there will be 16 European teams.  Why 16?  Because UEFA doesn't want two European teams in the same group!  So, 16 groups, 16 European teams.  UEFA wouldn't have signed off on anything else.

So, whether we like it or not, it looks like we're getting the 16 groups of three in 2026.  We already know the expansion to 48 teams is happening, and that is the format that would work best.  Especially with the addition of the round of 32, having 16 groups where the top two advance was the logical way to go.  Which is another reason why concerns about teams manipulating the group standings, while legitimate, are unfounded.  Simply put, two games aren't enough for teams to try that even if they wanted to.

Still, not having simultaneous final group games, while the most logical and sensible thing to do in the new format, will require some getting used to.  And it will definitely leave us missing the days of the 32-team World Cup, which really is the perfect number for a tournament like this.  Three games in group play is just right.  It's enough to know the teams that advanced deserved it, but not too many.  And, of course, the math works out perfectly.  The top two teams in each group move on.  No need to do those best-third-place tiebreakers.

I understand why the World Cup is expanding to 48 teams.  It's something that seemed inevitable eventually.  So there's no point in complaining about it, especially since nobody can change it.  That doesn't mean we can't lament the end of the 32-team era, though.  The final World Cup with the perfect number.