Picking Football Games, Week 18

Well kids, we've made it!  The end of the 2021 season, the NFL's first with 17 games.  And we enter the season finale with a few things still up in the air.  The AFC's No. 1 seed is still at stake, as well as the AFC East and NFC West titles.  There are three wild card spots left, too, including one that'll go to the winner of Sunday night's Raiders-Chargers game.

I've also gotta say that it's pretty impressive we're guaranteed to have every playoff team be 9-8 or better.  Because, for a while, it looked like one of the NFC wild cards would only have eight wins, which really would've been a bad look for both the expanded playoffs and the expanded season.  I'm less bothered by the AFC's No. 1 seed having at least five losses.  It's really just a sign of parity in a conference that had 13 teams still mathematically alive for the playoffs last week!

Chiefs (11-5) at Broncos (7-9): Kansas City-After taking care of the Broncos to start Week 18, you know Kansas City will be watching Sunday's games pretty intently to see whether they're playing next week or not.  Although, what really should concern the Chiefs is that of their five losses this season, three have come against the other three AFC division champions (assuming Buffalo wins the East) and the fourth came against the Chargers, who they could end up facing in the Wild Card Game.  So, no matter what, it looks like the Chiefs will have to face a team they lost to this season in the playoffs.

Cowboys (11-5) at Eagles (9-7): Dallas-Dallas entered last week's game as the NFC's No. 2 seed.  They enter this week's game knowing that they're pretty much locked into No. 4.  Which means either the Cardinals or Rams next week, then possibly a trip to Green Bay for the Divisional Playoffs.  So, yeah, it was a pretty significant loss for them.  The Eagles are also headed to the playoffs, having used a four-game winning streak to clinch a spot.  Of course, their opponents during that streak were the Giants, Jets and Washington twice, though.  So, needless to say, this is a bit of a step up in quality of opponent.

Bengals (10-6) at Browns (7-9): Cincinnati-Who Dey?  Who Dey?  Who Dey Gonna Beat Them Bengals?  No one!  Talk about signature wins, that's exactly what the AFC North champs got last week!  Sure, they got some help on 4th-and-goal, but that's not the point.  The point is the Cincinnati Bengals are for real!  And, if the Chiefs lose to Denver, they're actually still alive for No. 1.  The Bengals are also undefeated in the division, and a perfect run through a division that had three playoff teams last season is definitely something worth playing for.

Packers (13-3) at Lions (2-13-1): Green Bay-Even though the Packers have already locked up the 1-seed, Aaron Rodgers is gonna play for some reason.  Maybe they don't want him to have two full weeks off.  Maybe they'll treat it like a preseason game and he won't play the whole time.  Or maybe they want him to get that 16th game to bolster his MVP candidacy.  Either way, it doesn't really matter.  The Packers don't care whether they win or not, but if Rodgers plays a decent amount they probably will.

Bears (6-10) at Vikings (7-9): Minnesota-You've gotta wonder how things would've been different had luck been on the Vikings' side at all this season.  Minnesota played more games than I can count (the win over the Steelers and last week's loss in Green Bay are the only blowouts I can think of), but what do they have to show for it?  A bunch of one-score losses and a sub-.500 record.  Which is more than I can say for a not-very-good Bears team that's already told its coach he's being fired after the game.

Washington (6-10) at Giants (4-12): Giants-Washington's final game as the "Football Team" (Thank Goodness!) will also hopefully be the final game for Giants Head Coach Joe Judge and GM Dave Gettleman.  This one is obviously meaningless, so it might be a matter of which team doesn't give a crap less.  Frankly, it doesn't matter.  Although, since the Giants should've won the first game and this one's at home, I'll go with them.

Colts (9-7) at Jaguars (2-14): Indianapolis-The Colts sure made a mess for themselves, didn't they?  Instead of wrapping up their playoff spot last week and still having a shot at winning the AFC South, they find themselves needing a win in Week 18 or being out entirely.  The good news is their finale is against the Jaguars.  They won't need to sweat it out until the end of the Chargers-Raiders game to know whether they're in the playoffs or not.  Because, frankly, if they can't beat Jacksonville, they don't deserve to be.

Steelers (8-7-1) at Ravens (8-8): Pittsburgh-Pittsburgh has never finished below .500 in Ben Roetlisberger's career, and the Steelers guaranteed that they won't in his final season with their win last week in Cleveland.  That's truly a remarkable stat.  They're also the only team in the league capable of finishing exactly .500 this season, so I kinda want them to lose for that reason alone.  But, the Steelers incredibly still have a shot at the playoffs, and a win is required for that highly unlikely scenario to play out.  Either way, do you really see them sending Big Ben out with anything other than a victory?

Titans (11-5) at Texans (4-12): Tennessee-Had the Texans not beaten the Titans the first time, Tennessee would have already clinched the AFC's No. 1 seed.  So you know they're not taking Houston lightly.  They'll also know whether the Chiefs already won, which only amps up the pressure even more.  Not that they need the pressure amped up, though.  That loss to Houston in Week 11 is more than enough motivation.  They get their bye and force Kansas City to play next week.

Saints (8-8) at Falcons (7-9): New Orleans-Things looked really bleak for the Saints to make the playoffs just a few weeks ago.  Then they shut out Tampa Bay and, with their favorable schedule, it suddenly seemed possible.  Now, they head into their finale in Atlanta knowing that a win and a 49ers loss gets them in.  Which is very realistic.  Of course, while they have no control over Rams-49ers, they can easily take care of their part.

Jets (4-12) at Bills (10-6): Buffalo-Despite all of their inconsistency in the middle of the season, all the Bills need to do to secure their second straight AFC East title is beat the Jets at home.  Not a bad deal!  And they've actually looked like a playoff-bound team again during their three-game winning streak (and even in their OT loss to Tampa Bay).  Of course, they can thank their friends from Miami for the division title.  Because it's the Dolphins' Week 1 win over the Patriots that's the tiebreaker in Buffalo's favor right now.

49ers (9-7) at Rams (12-4): San Francisco-For some reason, the Rams can't beat the 49ers.  San Francisco swept the season series last year and won the first meeting this season.  Which makes this game incredibly intriguing.  Because they both need a win.  The 49ers looked like a lock for the playoffs a few weeks ago, but they could end up seeing the Saints steal their wild card.  The Rams, meanwhile, fought their way back to the NFC West lead, but fall right back to a wild card if they lose and the Cardinals win.  Get ready for Rams-Cowboys next Sunday night!  Because San Francisco's getting that last playoff spot.

Patriots (10-6) at Dolphins (8-8): New England-Miami started the season with a win in New England, then went on to lose seven in a row before winning seven in a row.  They were eliminated from playoff contention last week, though, so their up-and-down season ends the same way it began--against the Patriots.  Miami is the one team that has consistently given Belichick trouble, so expect this to be another close one.  The division title is still in play for New England, though.  And that should be enough motivation to put the Patriots on top.

Seahawks (6-10) at Cardinals (11-5): Arizona-There's no way to understate how important last week's win in Dallas was for the Cardinals.  They already knew they were headed to the playoffs, but now they go into Week 18 still with a (very realistic) shot at winning the NFC West and getting a home game next week.  They obviously can't control what happens in the Rams-49ers game.  All they can do is take care of business in Seattle.  At the very worst, they'll know they're headed right back to Dallas, where they just won.

Panthers (5-11) at Buccaneers (12-4): Tampa Bay-Not to make light of it, but did anyone see the Antonio Brown thing ending any other way?  That was seriously one of the strangest things I've ever seen happen on a football field!  It's a good thing the Bucs didn't lose to the Jets and make that an even bigger story.  A loss there would've also pretty much locked them into the 3-seed, but No. 2 is still very much in play.  Of course, that could mean facing the Saints for a third time (although, they did beat New Orleans in the playoffs last year after getting swept in the regular season).

Chargers (9-7) at Raiders (9-7): Chargers-It's win and in in Game 272 (sorry, but Game 256 sounds better).  It's not surprising that the Chargers are in this position.  They were 4-1 at one point and many people have considered them among the best teams in the AFC all season.  The Raiders though?  They looked lost for a little while after the Gruden firing/resignation, but they've sure righted the ship, and they got that win in Indy last week to put themselves into this position.  The fact that the game is in Las Vegas helps the Raiders, but the Chargers are the better team and, frankly, deserve to be in the playoffs more.

Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 162-93-1