No Djokovic Makes It Wide Open

As it turns out, Novak Djokovic won't be playing in the Australian Open after all.  Which is probably the best thing for everybody.  Because as long as he was in the country, he was going to dominate the conversation in much the same way Naomi Osaka's press boycott overshadowed last year's French Open.  Rafael Nadal even mentioned how all of the other players were fed up with the Djokovic circus, and he's right.  So, now that the visa saga is settled, we can finally start talking about the 256 players who actually will be participating in the tournament.

While I don't think he would've won this year after all that time he spent in detention, there's no denying that Djokovic's absence leaves the men's field wide open.  In fact, there's only one former winner in the field--Nadal, who won the tournament 12 years ago!  And no one would consider Nadal a favorite here.  Not when this is his first tournament back from injury.

Instead, we're likely to see somebody's Grand Slam breakthrough.  Second-seeded US Open champion Daniil Medvedev was the finalist here last year and would have to be considered the favorite, but this is a great opportunity for some of those other "on the brink" players in the top 10 to finally win a Grand Slam.  Guys like Olympic gold medalist Alexander Zverev and 2021 French Open finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas, a semifinalist here in two of the last three years.

Fifth-seeded Andrey Rublev, meanwhile, suffered a little bit of bad luck with the timing of the whole Djokovic thing.  Had Djokovic been deported earlier, Rublev would've moved into his spot in the bracket and had a clear path to the semifinals.  But, since the Day 1 schedule was already out, Rublev stayed where he was, which means a potential quarterfinal matchup with Medvedev.

Thanks to the Big Three's 15 years of dominance, it's been a long time since we've gone into a men's Grand Slam without a clear favorite.  That's exactly what we have here, though.  And, frankly, I'm intrigued to see how the other players approach a Grand Slam knowing they finally have a chance (in much the same way the 2020 US Open became anybody's to win after Djokovic was DQ'ed).

Adding to the intrigue is the fact that both Medvedev and Zverev have a chance to take over the No. 1 ranking from our unvaccinated friend by winning the tournament.  Fortunately, they ended up on opposite sides of the draw.  So, it's quite possible (I'd even say likely) that they could meet in the final with not just the Australian Open title, but also the No. 1 ranking on the line.

I'd love to see that match, too.  They've won the last two significant hardcourt tournaments--Zverev at the Olympics and Medvedev at the US Open, with each beating Djokovic along the way as Novak was still chasing history.  The difference, of course, is that Medvedev has the one thing Zverev doesn't.  While an Olympic gold medal is still coveted, it's not a Grand Slam title.  Zverev will get that in two weeks.

On the women's side, you've got Osaka returning to Melbourne as the defending champion with a new lease on life.  That mental health break she took after the US Open seems to have done her some good, and we'll see how much that new attitude impacts her tennis.  Because she's arguably the best hardcourt player on the women's tour.  Although, both of her Australian Open titles came immediately after winning the US Open.  And, as we know, she didn't win the 2021 US Open.  Emma Raducanu did.

Speaking of Raducanu, she burst onto the scene so suddenly that this is her Australian Open debut.  In fact, it's just her third career Grand Slam tournament, and the first she's qualified for one directly (she got a wild card into Wimbledon and when through qualifying at the US Open last year).  That's a pretty dramatic change in a span of just a few months.  She went from a nobody to one of the favorites overnight.  Can she live up to it?

Or will it be someone else?  You can't forget about Sofia Kenin, the 2020 champion, or Garbine Muguruza, who she beat in the final that year and is seeded third here.  Not that many people are talking about Muguruza as a potential champion, but they should be.  They should also be talking about Aryna Sabalenka and Maria Sakkari, two top-five players who are still waiting for their Grand Slam breakthrough.

Then there's the hometown favorite, world No. 1 Ash Barty.  Barty's a two-time Grand Slam champion and the biggest hope to give Australia its first women's champion since 1978.  While she isn't the strongest hardcourt player, there's no denying that she benefits from playing in front of the hometown crowd.  She's gone quarters, semis, quarters in the last three years, so a deep run is not out of the question.  Even if a title might be.

One of the reasons I doubt Barty's chances is because the top half of the bracket is simply loaded.  Osaka and Kenin, who've combined to win the last three Australian Opens, are up there.  As is two-time champ Vika Azarenka.  Yes, it was a decade ago.  But Vika's still one of the better hardcourt players among the women.  There's also Sakkari, Ons Jabuer and Elina Svitolina, who I'm still waiting to see make that run to a final she's definitely capable of.

The bottom half of the draw is definitely the weaker section, which is another thing that I think works in Muguruza's favor.  Unfortunately, she, Raducanu and Simona Halep are all in the same section, meaning only one of them can make the quarterfinals.  Which is great news for Petra Kvitova (the 2019 finalist) and Angie Kerber (the 2016 champion).  There's also one random women's player who reaches at least the quarters at the Aussie Open every year.  I wouldn't be surprised if she comes out of the bottom half.

Call me crazy, but I really like Garbine Muguruza for some reason.  I just think everything has lined up perfectly for her.  So much so that she's my pick to win it.  As for her opponent, I'm going with Svitolina.  Which means she'll probably lose in the first round.