Picking Divisional Playoff Games

Well, that sure was an eventful Super Wild Card Weekend!  An inadvertent whistle on a touchdown pass.  A quarterback sneak with no timeouts left when you're losing.  And four absolutely dominant performances.  What do the Divisional Playoffs have in store as an encore?

Bengals (11-7) at Titans (12-5): Tennessee-You want to know something crazy?  The AFC Championship Game has never been in either Houston or Nashville!  All five of the Oilers/Titans' appearances have been on the road.  They, of course, have a chance to change that little bit of trivia this weekend when they begin the Divisional Playoffs by hosting Cincinnati.

Congratulations to the Bengals on finally snapping their playoff losing streak and earning their first postseason win in 31 years (which, coincidentally enough, was against the Oilers).  Can they make it two straight and make their first AFC Championship Game appearance since 1988?  It's definitely possible.  They'll have to play a flawless game, though.  Because the Titans are the better team and won't just give it to them.

Tennessee beat pretty much every other AFC playoff team in the regular season, but didn't play the Bengals.  If they had, I'm sure they would've won that game, too.  The Titans have been remarkably consistent this season.  Mike Vrabel always comes up with a great game plan, especially against good teams.  That shouldn't be any different this week.  Especially since the Titans have that week off to rest.

49ers (11-7) at Packers (13-4): Green Bay-San Francisco was the only road team to win last week, which surprised me.  Partially because I thought the 49ers had no chance against the Cowboys (even though so many people were telling me it would be close) and partially because I figured there would be at least two road winners on Wild Card Weekend.  But I guess it's lesson learned about the 49ers.  They're better than I want to give them credit for.

Green Bay, meanwhile, is the best team in the NFC.  The Packers are the No. 1 seed for the second straight year and are looking to reach their third straight NFC Championship Game (and fifth in eight years).  And they won't just have home field advantage.  They'll be playing a night game at Lambeau in sub-zero temperatures against a warm-weather team.

I've learned my lesson about the 49ers.  I'm not gonna say they're overmatched.  However, they're also not as good as the Packers.  It's Super Bowl or bust for Green Bay.  They get one step closer.

Rams (13-5) at Buccaneers (14-4): Rams-Tom Brady is now 5-0 in the postseason as a member of the Bucs.  Matthew Stafford, meanwhile, finally got his long-awaited first playoff win in a very impressive performance against the Cardinals on Monday night.  Now they have to fly cross-country on a short week to play early Sunday start while Tampa didn't have to travel at all.  Will that make a difference?

While that may have an impact, I don't think it'll be the deciding factor.  Not when you have a defense like the Rams.  That thing can travel, and it's gonna be what keeps the game close until the offense gets going.  And don't discount how important that win on Monday night was for Stafford, who got the playoff monkey off his back.  He's a veteran A matchup against the GOAT shouldn't faze him in the slightest.

These two met in Week 3, when people couldn't shut up about how amazing Tampa Bay was and wondering if they could possibly go undefeated.  The Rams won.  I'd expect them to have a similar game plan this time around.  Except now they have Von Miller and OBJ.  I'm calling it.  Last year, Tampa Bay became the first team to play a home Super Bowl.  The Rams will move within a game of becoming the second.

Bills (12-6) at Chiefs (13-5): Kansas City-This isn't just a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game.  It's also a matchup of the teams that looked by far the most impressive last week.  The Bills had a perfect offensive performance.  Seven touchdowns and a kneel down in eight possessions.  Kansas City got off to a slow start before starting to look like the Chiefs and dominating Pittsburgh in the second half.

Can Buffalo repeat that performance against Kansas City?  Most likely not.  Just like the Chiefs probably won't be able to repeat their performance from last week.  But if either one gets something even remotely close, it's gonna be very tough for the opposing defense.  And, should this one turn into a shootout, the winner will be favored in the AFC Championship Game, even if the game's in Nashville.

When they met in the regular season, the Bills won pretty handily.  That was way back in September, though, when the Chiefs were still figuring things out.  They're obviously a much different team now.  And a much better one.  Kansas City has been to three straight AFC Championship Games.  They'll make it four.

One of the biggest takeaways from Super Wild Card Weekend was that all eight of these teams are capable of not just getting to the Super Bowl, but winning it.  So I expect all four games this weekend to be close.  These won't be like the blowouts we saw last week.

Last Week: 3-3
Overall: 174-103-1