Picking Football Games, Week 17

Next season, the NFL will have a very interesting problem entirely of its own making in Week 17.  More on that next time.  But first, we have Week 17 of the 2021 season, which isn't the end of the road.  Game 256 is Browns-Steelers on Monday night, but Game 256 isn't significant anymore.  Game 272 is.  And, frankly, that doesn't have the same ring to it.

Falcons (7-8) at Bills (9-6): Buffalo-Last week's victory in New England was huge for the Bills, who'll win the AFC East if they win both of their remaining games.  There are a bunch of scenarios where they'll clinch a playoff berth this week, the most direct of which is a win and a Rams win over the Ravens.  That's very doable.  Of course, if they don't beat the Falcons, not only is the Rams-Ravens game irrelevant to them, the division title is no longer solely in their control either.  They certainly don't want that.

Giants (4-11) at Bears (5-10): Giants-For the Giants, is it better to win and improve your chances of picking back-to-back or to lose and stagger your two top 10 picks a little bit?  Am I giving them too much credit for even thinking about that?  I guess that's what happens when you have two out of contention teams facing each other in the penultimate week.  I'll go with the Giants because why not?  (And because I've been pretty clear all season about the fact that I don't think the Bears are very good.)

Chiefs (11-4) at Bengals (9-6): Kansas City-Believe it or not, Cincinnati can clinch the AFC North with a win.  Of course, that's easier said than done against a red-hot Chiefs team that enters this one on an eight-game winning streak.  A loss before the playoffs start wouldn't be the worst thing for Kansas City, and you can bet they're hoping they wrap up home field this week so they can potentially rest starters against Denver.  I also think it's entirely possible that these two see each other again in a couple weeks.

Dolphins (8-7) at Titans (10-5): Tennessee-Miami's season really has been incredible.  A seven-game losing streak followed by a seven-game winning streak that has them currently sitting in playoff position.  And who would they play in the Wild Card Game?  The Tennessee Titans!  We're a long way from calling this a "playoff preview," though.  Especially since the Titans haven't even clinched their playoff berth yet.  Of course, that's just a formality.  In fact, they'll lock up the AFC South with a win.

Raiders (8-7) at Colts (9-6): Indianapolis-For the Colts, it's win and in.  For the Raiders, it's win to stay alive.  Here's the interesting thing, though: a Las Vegas win would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Colts.  A Raiders win would also potentially set up a winner-gets-the-last-wild-card scenario next week against the Chargers (in a game that would almost certainly be on Sunday night).  Don't bet on that scenario happening.  Because Indy's gonna keep rolling.

Jaguars (2-13) at Patriots (9-6): New England-Suddenly, after two straight losses, the Patriots find themselves back in wild card position.  The good news is New England's still got a one-game lead on that whole 8-7 pack.  The other good news is that they get to play Jacksonville this week.  Of course, the Jaguars' wins this season are against the other two AFC East playoff contenders, but this one should be a little different.

Buccaneers (11-4) at Jets (4-11): Tampa Bay-Over the past few seasons, it seemed the Jets would always play the Patriots sometime around now.  Both of their meetings with New England this season were earlier, so they'll have to settle for facing Brady instead.  Tampa Bay's already wrapped up the division, but still has seeding to think about.  Beating the Jets doesn't really help them, but losing to one of the worst teams in the league will essentially lock them into No. 4 and a matchup with the NFC West wild card team, which is something they don't want.

Eagles (8-7) at Washington (6-9): Washington-If everything falls their way, the Eagles can actually wrap up a wild card this week.  Quite a turnaround for a team that nobody thought had a shot at the playoffs even a few weeks ago.  And they've got the Cowboys next week, so they know that this game is essentially a must-win.  The fact that they just played Washington makes me hesitant though.  Especially after Washington got its butt kicked by Dallas last week.  You know they'd love screwing up the Eagles' playoff chances, too.

Rams (11-4) at Ravens (8-7): Rams-A Rams win and a Cowboys win, and we've got all four NFC divisions locked up.  The Rams have sure recovered from their little midseason hiccup.  The Ravens, on the other hand, sure haven't.  Baltimore has tumbled all the way to 10th place in the AFC standings, and it's not like things are getting any easier.  Since another Ravens loss factors into so many playoff scenarios, there are a lot of other AFC teams rooting for the Rams in this one.

Broncos (7-8) at Chargers (8-7): Chargers-Oh man!  Talk about shooting yourselves in the foot!  The Chargers went to Houston and gave up 41 points to one of the worst teams in the league.  And, as a result, their playoff position is a lot more precarious.  That turned this game into an absolute must-win.  It's also a must-win for the Broncos, but Denver's playoff chances aren't nearly as good as the Chargers'.  Those chances will drop to zero after this one.

Texans (4-11) at 49ers (8-7): San Francisco-Don't look past the Texans!  That's a lesson the Titans and Chargers both learned, and the 49ers would be advised to pay attention to it.  Of course, the big difference between last week's game and this week's is that this one is in Santa Clara.  And a win all but locks up a playoff spot for San Francisco, regardless of what happens next week.  (In fact, they will clinch with a win and a Saints loss.)

Cardinals (10-5) at Cowboys (11-4): Dallas-People have had this one circled for weeks because of its importance to the NFC playoff race.  Of course, that's before Arizona went into a free fall.  It's still important, but not as important as it could've been.  Because the Dallas Cowboys look ready for the playoffs to start.  The Arizona Cardinals don't.  Dallas will show that again.

Panthers (5-10) at Saints (7-8): New Orleans-The Saints sure made a mess for themselves on Monday night, didn't they!  New Orleans had the clearest path to the playoffs of all the NFC wild card contenders.  Instead, they laid an absolute egg against the Dolphins.  They haven't scored a touchdown in two weeks, either, which is also a big problem.  Nonetheless, I see them beating Carolina.  (Also, shout out to the Superdome facilities crew, who'll only have a few hours to turn the stadium over after the Sugar Bowl.)

Lions (2-12-1) at Seahawks (5-10): Seattle-Detroit winning wouldn't shock me.  Because, frankly, I think the Seahawks are mailing it in and have been for a few weeks.  Not that I entirely blame them.  After all, this is the first time in the Pete Carroll-Russell Wilson Era that they've been out of it.  I'll give them the benefit of the doubt, though, and say they close out their home schedule with a victory.

Vikings (7-8) at Packers (12-3): Green Bay-It's gonna be COLD at Lambeau on Sunday night!  Not as cold as it was in Minneapolis for the Winter Classic, but cold enough for you to know it's a January Packers home game.  They'll know before the game starts whether they can guarantee themselves nothing but home games throughout the playoffs.  At the very least, they want the satisfaction of essentially eliminating a Vikings team that has already beaten them this season and won't have its quarterback.

Browns (7-8) at Steelers (7-7-1): Pittsburgh-Big Ben hasn't officially said he's retiring, but he's also indicated that this "might" be his final game at Heinz Field.  The fact that it's against the rival Browns, who absolutely destroyed them the last time they visited Pittsburgh in last season's playoffs, only adds fuel to his competitive fire.  And, more importantly, it'll keep the Steelers' very faint playoff hopes alive heading into the finale (while also eliminating Cleveland).  I just don't see Roethlisberger letting Pittsburgh lose this one.

BONUS PICK--Week 18 Flex Games: New England at Miami, Cincinnati at Cleveland, Chargers at Las Vegas-Since the NFL is trying something new this season and having three flex games in the final week (two on Saturday, as well as Sunday night), I thought I'd also try something new and pick which games I think will get flexed into those spots.  The only two NFC contenders are Cowboys-Eagles and 49ers-Rams, but I think all three will end up being AFC games (especially if all seven NFC spots are already clinched).  Which is why I went with Bengals-Browns, Patriots-Dolphins and Chargers-Raiders.  Cincinnati will have either already won the AFC North or have the chance to clinch it with a win, while the other two could determine wild card spots.

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 151-88-1