Picking Conference Championship Games

Wow!  That might've been the best weekend of playoff football ever!  Not just the best Divisional Playoff weekend.  The best weekend period!  Three walk-off field goals by the visiting team, then that crazy back-and-forth classic overtime classic between the Bills and Chiefs to cap it off!  My question about the conference championship games is "How can they possibly top it?"  

Well, giving us two matchups were certainly didn't expect to see was a good start (how crazy is it, too, that we can possibly have a third 49ers-Bengals Super Bowl?).  They're also both rematches of games we saw late in the regular season...where this week's visiting team won.  We've also got one matchup between two exciting young quarterbacks and another between outstanding defenses.

Bengals (12-7) at Chiefs (14-5): Kansas City-It was when they beat the Chiefs in Week 17 that we knew the Bengals were for real.  Now they get them again in the AFC Championship Game with all the confidence in the world.  Cincinnati is playing with house money, too.  All the pressure's on the Chiefs, who are hosting the AFC Championship Game for a ridiculous fourth straight year.

After they beat the Raiders in the Wild Card Game, Joe Burrow told Bengals fans that they'd better start getting used to winning.  Then they started that crazy Divisional Playoff weekend by going on the road and knocking off the No. 1 seed.  You've got a feeling that this won't be their last trip to the AFC Championship Game with Burrow.

Patrick Mahomes, meanwhile, is a regular participant in this game.  That comeback last week might've been the most impressive of his career, too.  They were down by three with 13 seconds left, but that's all they needed to get into field goal range, force overtime, and cause social media to freakout for two days about how "unfair" it was that they won.  How about we celebrate the brilliance of the Chiefs' offense in that moment instead?

Ever since that miserable performance in Super Bowl LV, it's been their mission to get back.  Now they're 60 minutes away from getting there, and they might be playing their best football of the season.  And they'll be playing at home once again, which is another huge advantage!  We thought we might see Mahomes actually play a road playoff game for the first time (last season's Super Bowl was technically a neutral site even though they played the Bucs in Tampa).  Instead, he gets to play at Arrowhead in front of his fans.

While Kansas City's the favorite, Cincinnati can obviously win.  They beat them less than a month ago and they really believe in themselves.  The Bengals know that the Chiefs' weakness is on the defensive side of the ball, so if they can put up points and keep Mahomes off the field, they'll be in good shape.

However, a third straight AFC Championship for Kansas City seems far more likely.  The Chiefs got off to a slow start in each of their first two playoff games and still ended up 42 points in each.  That offense is too good and it's clicking.  As great as the Bengals' run this season has been, it ends one game short of a Hollywood ending.

49ers (12-7) at Rams (14-5): San Francisco-If the Rams win, congratulations Cardinals on next season's NFC Championship!  After 54 years without a Super Bowl home team, we've got the possibility of it happening back-to-back.  Either way, the winner of this NFC West showdown isn't going anywhere.  They'll be right back in SoFi Stadium two weeks from now.  (And if it's the 49ers, it would be their third game there in five weeks.)

This season has been Super Bowl or Bust for the Rams.  That's one of the reasons they traded for Matthew Stafford.  And they were certainly the better team for three-and-a-half quarters last week.  It also says a lot that they survived Brady's final fourth quarter comeback and drove down for the winning field goal without giving him another chance, setting themselves up to play a home NFC Championship Game, then possibly a home Super Bowl.

Of course, their opponent is the team that's been their kryptonite in recent years.  The 49ers swept the Rams this season and have won six in a row against them.  Sean McVay, in fact, is just 3-7 against San Francisco and 57-22 against everyone else since taking over as LA's head coach in 2017 (and two of the wins came in the Rams' Super Bowl season).  I don't know why, but the 49ers just have his number!

These two are obviously very familiar with each other.  So I'm expecting a typical Rams-49ers game.  That's typically what happens when division rivals meet in the playoffs, and it shouldn't be any different here.  The team that wins will be the one that's able to better surprise the other with something new.  That's especially true when you consider this is the second game here between these two this month!

As you know, I haven't been very high on San Francisco throughout the playoffs.  If the 49ers didn't win that game at SoFi earlier this month (on literally the last play of overtime), they wouldn't have even made the playoffs.  But they've sure made the most of their opportunity!  Their defense has been incredible, shutting down both Dallas and Green Bay, and Deebo Samuel is, without question, the breakout star of the postseason.

A lot of people have been comparing this 49ers squad to the Giants team that won the Super Bowl a decade ago (remember when the Giants were good?).  I can see the comparison.  And the NFC Championship Game is a favorable matchup for them in a stadium where they've never lost (the Chiefs have never lost their either, which could be a very interesting Super Bowl subplot).

Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs: 5-5
Overall: 176-105-1