All On the Rose Bowl

That whole Texas-and-Oklahoma-to-the-SEC thing was due in part to the fact that the general expectation is that the College Football Playoff will eventually be expanded beyond the current four teams, perhaps to as many as 12.  There wouldn't be automatic qualifiers or a limit on the number of teams from a conference, either, so the SEC was positioning itself to scoop up as many bids as possible.  I've even seen some hypothetical 12-team playoffs that have as much as half the field coming from the SEC.

For most of the summer, people just assumed the expansion was inevitable.  It was just a matter of figuring out the logistics.  Would the first round games be on campus?  Or would it entirely take place using existing bowls?  And, if there are AQs, which conferences get one?  The Power 5 plus the best Group of 5 champion, with six at-larges?

Except all of those plans have hit a pretty major snag.  The Rose Bowl.  And if they can't get the Rose Bowl's buy-in, it'll complicate any CFP expansion plans.  Because it would be nearly impossible to do it without the Rose Bowl.  Both practically and logistically.

The Rose Bowl is known as the "Granddaddy of Them All" for a reason, and it's pretty protective of some of its traditions.  Two traditions in particular--the Big Ten vs. Pac-12 matchup and the 2:00 Pacific time kickoff.  And they don't seem willing to budge on either one just to accommodate an expanded College Football Playoff.

Now, scheduling around the kickoff time is actually fairly easy.  They've already been scheduling the CFP semifinals around it for years.  The Rose Bowl is played at 2:00 Pacific on New Year's Day whether it's a semifinal or not.  Likewise, the Sugar Bowl is played at 7:30 Central on New Year's Day whether it's a semifinal or not.  So, those two are paired and they're the two semifinals or, in the two years they aren't, the semifinals are played on the Saturday before.  Either way, their start time is the same each season.

Scheduling around the Rose Bowl's start time probably wouldn't be much of an issue in the expanded format, either.  Depending on how they set it up, they could simply make the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl the permanent semifinals.  Although, that would make the other four bowls that are currently in the CFP semifinal rotation relegated to permanent quarterfinals (and held a week earlier than they are now), so I'm sure they wouldn't be too happy about it.

However, the Rose Bowl doesn't seem willing to budge on its traditional Big Ten vs. Pac-12 matchup, which would create all sorts of problems.  I know what you're thinking: "The Rose Bowl isn't always Pac-12 vs. Big Ten."  That's true.  The most recent Rose Bowl, for example, was Alabama vs. Notre Dame.  That, however, was a CFP semifinal. 

When the Rose Bowl is a CFP semifinal, the matchup is determined by the CFP rankings, so they have no control over who plays in the game.  (In fact, the Rose Bowl hasn't featured a Big Ten OR Pac-12 team the last two times it's been a semifinal.)  In the years that it's not a part of the College Football Playoff, however, the Rose Bowl reverts to the traditional matchup (with a few exceptions), sometimes even taking the second-place team just to preserve it.  That's a trade-off they're willing to make since it lets them both keep their traditional matchup and be part of the playoff.

It wouldn't be possible to guarantee either of those things if the Rose Bowl were to be a part of an expanded CFP, though.  The matchups would presumably be seeded, and it's unlikely that two Power 5 conference champions would end up facing each other in that scenario.  Likewise, if the Rose Bowl was made a permanent semifinal to preserve its date and time, you'd have no idea who's playing in the game that year.  It might not be either conference.

Even before the Rose Bowl hiccup, I was wondering how the proposed 12-team format would work anyway.  For the National Championship Game to be at its usual time (the Monday night after the NFL season ends), the semifinals would also have to remain when they currently are (either New Year's Day or the weekend before).  So, the quarterfinals would have to be a week before that, which means Christmas week.  And that would put the first-round games in mid-December, which is finals. 

Likewise, are they really serious about having first-round games on campus?  That's fine for the SEC teams, but can you imagine a playoff game at Ohio State or Notre Dame in December?  I know it would be a tremendous home field advantage, which is the entire point, but you're also taking a tremendous risk with the weather there.

Qualifying is another question.  Right now, with four teams, you're guaranteed to have one Power 5 conference champion left out.  I like the idea of giving an auto bid to each of the five, as well as the best conference champion from the Group of 5.  But, if you do that and only expand to eight teams, that only leaves two at-large bids.  If you go to 12, that's six auto-bids and six at-larges.  So it works in that sense, but then you have byes to worry about.

Personally, I think expanding to eight makes much more sense than expanding to 12.  It's less drastic, much cleaner, and only adds one additional round.  Plus, you could just make the other four New Year's Six games the quarterfinals every year, so they'd keep their same level of importance.

I'm not sure any of it's actually gonna happen, though.  Not if the Rose Bowl doesn't get on board.  And right now, that doesn't seem likely.  So it might all be for naught and idea of College Football Playoff expansion will remain just that.  An idea.