Now It Matters

Winning the Gold Cup and CONCACAF Nations League, but really, who cares?  There's only one CONCACAF competition that fans care about, and the U.S. Men's National Team knows it.  The 14 games of World Cup qualifying over the next six months are the only games that matter.  Because missing the World Cup for the second tournament in a row--when hosting in 2026!--is simply unacceptable.

Not that any of this is news to anybody.  The failure to qualify four years ago was an embarrassment of epic proportions.  It was also most likely an anomaly.  The U.S. is one of the three best teams in CONCACAF.  Everybody knows that.  But this is World Cup qualifying.  Crazy things can happen!

Although, as bad as that loss in Trinidad was, it may have been a good thing in the long run.  It showed that you can't take qualifying for granted.  It's not a foregone conclusion that both Mexico and the U.S. will make the World Cup out of CONCACAF.  And simply having the better talent isn't enough, either.  You need to show up.  That lesson was learned the hard way in Trinidad.

Of course, having better talent and having more of it will pay tremendous dividends during this qualifying cycle.  The Hex had already been expanded to eight teams (the Octo?), increasing the number of games from 10 to 14.  Those games were supposed to start last September.  Now, thanks to COVID, they're playing all 14 games between now and March.  That means three games in eight days during four of the five windows.  So you're gonna need depth and you're gonna need to use it.  Fortunately, the U.S. has arguably the deepest team in CONCACAF.

And that depth has been on full display leading into World Cup qualifying.  In fact, I'd argue that if there was any good thing to come out of the 2018 World Cup qualifying campaign, it was that.  It was a complete reset for the program.  So many veteran players were phased out and replaced by a young group that's hungry.  Christian Pulisic was already the best player.  But now, this is Pulisic's team.

These guys feel like they've got something to prove.  They want to show why they're starters in Europe.  More importantly, they want to bring glory back to Old Glory.  Which they've done with those two tournament victories over the summer. But again, you don't qualify for the World Cup, those tournaments are meaningless.

What the Gold Cup and Nations League did, however, was give this group confidence heading into World Cup qualifying.  Knowing you're the highest-ranked team in the region is one thing.  Going out and proving it is another.  And playing road games on terrible fields in El Salvador and Jamaica with the entire stadium rooting against you is completely different, too.  It's a hostile environment.  Not a 60,000-seat football stadium somewhere in the U.S. with 55,000 American fans and that one section with 5,000 Mexican supporters.

Even still, winning the two summer tournaments showed this group that they can beat those teams.  The situation is vastly different, and I already touched on the added element of playing on the road.  But having recent success against your opponent is huge, especially when only 37.5 percent of the teams qualify directly instead of 50 percent.

That's why getting off to a good start over these first three games will be so important, too.  It's easy to focus on the Trinidad game for obvious reasons, but don't forget how the U.S. started the 2016-17 Hex.  The first two games were against Mexico and Costa Rica.  They lost both.  Zero points out of six in the first two matches, which left them with a lot of pressure to get as many as they could in the final eight.

This time, with the extra four games, there's a lot more margin for error.  But the schedule is also much more favorable.  I'm not talking about the three games per window thing.  That's gonna be brutal!  No, I'm talking about who the U.S. plays and when.  The first two opponents are El Salvador and Canada, arguably the two weakest teams in the Octo.  A prime opportunity to get six points before heading to what should be a tough battle at Honduras (the team the U-23 squad is never able to beat in Olympic qualifying for some reason).

I also like the fact that the last game of qualifying is at Costa Rica.  That's definitely not a gimmie.  They thought Trinidad was four years ago, and it cost them everything.  Of course, the Costa Rica game will hopefully be meaningless for the U.S. if they've already qualified, but that's OK, too.  Point is, this time they know they have to bring their A-game in the finale.  So a Trinidad-like effort seems highly unlikely.

They can also take solace in Italy.  Italy also didn't qualify for the 2018 World Cup.  Just like the U.S., they used that as an opportunity to completely change the makeup of the National Team.  And it obviously worked for Italy.  They weren't just the Euro 2020 champions, they were the best team throughout that entire tournament.

The U.S. Men's National Team doesn't need an Italy-like run.  It's qualifying.  They only need to finish in the top three.  Whether it's in first or in third doesn't really matter.  Because they qualify for the World Cup either way.  And that's the only thing they're playing for right now.

For what it's worth, I don't think we'll see a repeat of Trinidad.  Over the course of 14 games, the U.S. will prove its one of the three best teams in CONCACAF, so qualifying won't be a problem this time.  This team knows there's no other option.  Because a team like the United States in a region like CONCACAF shouldn't be missing the World Cup.  Especially not twice in a row.