Football Season, Part 1

Well, ladies and gentlemen, we made it through the final NFL-less Sunday of 2021.  And, with an extra week added to the season, there won't be another one until late February.  The 17th game is obviously the biggest change in the NFL this season, and it's probably the biggest since they added the 15th and 16th games in 1978.  This season will also, hopefully, be somewhat of a return to normal after COVID wreaked so much havoc on the 2020 campaign.

Another big difference this season is how the league plans on dealing with COVID.  Last year, they were playing during a still-raging pandemic, so they didn't have much of a choice but to be flexible.  This year, there won't be anywhere near the same flexibility.  Not with players, staff and fans all getting vaccinated.  They can't require players to get vaccinated, but the teams whose players do will definitely have an advantage. 

It's not as black-and-white an issue as I'm making it, but the teams with the most unvaccinated players are at a far greater risk of having games postponed, etc.  That's the last thing a good team needs.  If you're a team thinking Super Bowl like the Chiefs or Bills, you don't want to be thinking about COVID restrictions and potentially losing players because of a stupid thing like a positive test.  Just imagine if a player's positive COVID test was the difference between making the playoffs or not or winning the division or not or getting that bye as the 1-seed or not.

I say all this because I think things in the AFC will be very similar to last season.  At least they will be at the top.  The Chiefs, Bills and the three teams in the North are a cut above everybody else.  The Chargers and Raiders should both be in the mix for wild cards.  So will the Patriots if they get their QB situation figured out.  And, even though the Texans are arguably the worst team in the NFL, the South will provide quite a little battle for the division title.

AFC East: After last season's run to the AFC Championship Game, people should be talking about the Bills as the biggest challenger to Kansas City's throne.  Instead, the biggest headlines the Bills made were about their internal dysfunction and their vocal anti-vaxxers.  Hopefully that doesn't derail the good thing they've got going!  Josh Allen is entering his prime and one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  There's every reason to believe the hype surrounding this team.

As for the Patriots, I think Year 2 Post-Brady will go much better than the first.  New England looks like a legitimate playoff contender, even if they still don't have that Patriots aura.  The Dolphins and Jets, meanwhile, should both be better than they were last season.  Enough to be in the mix for playoff berths?  No.  Not in a top-heavy AFC.
Projected Standings: Bills 12-4, Patriots 10-7, Dolphins 7-10, Jets 5-12

AFC North: Three AFC North teams made the playoffs last season, and that could very well happen again.  In fact, I expect it to.  The only question is the order of finish.  Although, I'm not even sure that matters.  Because the Browns and Ravens both won on the road in the Wild Card round last season!  And the Steelers?  Well, had last season ended at Thanksgiving, they would've been money!  Unfortunately, they also had to play the months of December and January...and we all saw what happened!

Overall, I think Baltimore is the strongest team of the three.  At least regular-season wise.  It'll be an incredibly tight race between the three, and that Ravens-Steelers game in Week 18 could very well end up being Game 272 (that doesn't roll off the tongue like "Game 256" does).  The Bengals, meanwhile, are stuck in a division with three playoff teams.  Which means they're destined to finish in last place no matter how good they are!
Projected Standings: Ravens 13-4, Steelers 12-5, Browns 10-7, Bengals 3-14

AFC South: While the AFC South doesn't boast any powerhouse teams, it could end up boasting the best division race.  Because I don't see much of a difference between the Colts and Titans, who were both playoff teams last season.  I'm also curious to see what happens in Jacksonville with Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence.  Some people are saying they're suddenly relevant again (I'm not sure how you can be relevant "again" when you've only been relevant for one season in the past 10 years, but that another story).  I'm not willing to go that far, but they'll be much improved.

One team I do agree with all of the experts on is the Texans.  Houston is not a good team.  In fact, I'd be surprised if they win more than two or three games.  They could end up being a big factor in the AFC South race, though.  Because they're gonna beat somebody.  And if that team is the Colts or Titans, it could end up deciding which one wins the division and which one is watching the playoffs from home.  Because I don't see two playoff teams coming out of the AFC South.
Projected Standings: Titans 9-8, Colts 8-9, Jaguars 6-11, Texans 2-15

AFC West: Kansas City has played one bad football game over the past three seasons.  It just so happened to take place in the Super Bowl, where the Chiefs were completely dominated by the Tampa Bay defense.  So, even though they're the two-time defending AFC champions, they feel like they've got something to prove.  They want to show America that Super Bowl LV was a fluke.  They're a better team than that.

The gap is closing, but the Chiefs are still the class of the AFC.  And they will be until they inevitably lose some free agents or salary cap casualties.  As for the AFC West, the Chargers look to be the team most capable of challenging them.  I fully believe they would've been a playoff team last season had Justin Herbert stayed healthy.  I'm not discounting the Raiders or Broncos, either.  The Raiders will be a very tough out in Las Vegas, where they're finally able to have fans in their new stadium.  And the Broncos are about a year or two away from being a regular playoff contender again.
Projected Standings: Chiefs 14-3, Chargers 12-5, Raiders 8-9, Broncos 6-11

So, my AFC playoff seeds are: 1-Chiefs, 2-Ravens, 3-Bills, 4-Titans, 5-Chargers, 6-Steelers, 7-Browns.  That gives Kansas City the only bye for the second straight year, while setting up wild card matchups of: Cleveand at Baltimore, Pittsburgh at Buffalo, Chargers at Tennessee.

Ultimately, I think the AFC title will come down to the Chiefs, Ravens and Bills.  There are a lot of good teams in the conference, but they're the three best.  And, as tempting as it is to say Patrick Mahomes and Co. will be making their third straight Super Bowl appearance, I think what the Bucs exposed will be exposed again during this season's playoffs.  Which is why I'm picking the Ravens to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVI.  Just call it a hunch.