Picking Football Games, Week 4

Homecoming games are typically played sometime in October for high school and college football teams.  This week, the NFL is getting in on the act.  Because they've got the two biggest returns of the season both being played on the same day.  I'm, of course, talking about Andy Reid's return to Philadelphia with the Chiefs and the most-anticipated NFL game over the past two seasons...Brady's return to New England.

Thursday Night: Cincinnati (Win)

Washington (1-2) at Falcons (1-2): Atlanta-If you're looking for a win, just play the Giants.  That's what both of these teams did.  Now they play each other, which will move one of them to .500.  Frankly, neither team good.  But 2-2 still looks a lot better than 1-3.  I really have no way of quantifying which team is less bad than the other in what should be a terrible game, so I'm going with the Falcons at home.

Texans (1-2) at Bills (2-1): Buffalo-It seems like forever between games for the teams that play on Thursday night, doesn't it?  The Texans' loss to Carolina was so long ago that I forgot they only scored nine points!  So, yeah, if their offense is that anemic at home against the Panthers, I don't have high hopes for them against the Bills defense in Buffalo.

Lions (0-3) at Bears (1-2): Chicago-Lions fans are frustrated.  So frustrated that they booed the owner last week.  Detroit then went out and actually would've beaten the Ravens if not for Justin Tucker's insane 66-yard field goal!  But it was still a loss, leaving the Lions as one of two winless teams in the NFC.  That first win could come this week, but likely will not.  No matter who's playing quarterback for the Bears.

Panthers (3-0) at Cowboys (2-1): Dallas-How long have I been saying that if the Dallas Cowboys are healthy, they aren't just the best team in the NFC East, they're one of the best in the entire NFC?!  Monday night was a prime example of that.  If the Cowboys play like that every week, very few teams will beat them.  That includes the Panthers, who have a nice win over the Saints, but aren't as good as their record implies.

Colts (0-3) at Dolphins (1-2): Miami-Miami went into New England and won, then played the Bills at home and got shut out, then went to Las Vegas and lost in overtime.  Why is it that they've played well in their two road games but were terrible at home?  Was it just because of how good the Bills were in Week 2?  I guess we'll find out when they take on a Colts team they should beat.

Browns (2-1) at Vikings (1-2): Cleveland-As I said after Week 1, the stat about the Browns never winning their opener is interesting, but it's not really indicative of anything about the 2021 team.  All it said was that they played a good team on the road.  Their second road game of the season is against a Vikings team that looked so different last week than they had in their previous two games.  This game should tell us a lot about both teams.

Giants (0-3) at Saints (2-1): New Orleans-At long last, the Saints get to play at the Superdome!  It's been a long three weeks on the road for New Orleans, but they survived it just fine.  Sure, they'd like to be 3-0 instead of 2-1, but that game in Carolina can easily be chalked up as an anomaly because of everything they had to deal with that week.  As for the Giants, they're running out of new ways to lose by a field goal, but I'm sure they'll find one.

Titans (2-1) at Jets (0-3): Tennessee-The Jets have been outscored 51-6 over the past two weeks.  That really tells you all you need to know.  Don't expect it to get any better against the Titans, either.  Maybe they'll actually score a touchdown this week.  Even if they do, it probably won't matter.  Not against a Titans team that went into Seattle and won.

Chiefs (1-2) at Eagles (1-2): Kansas City-First things first, all the best to Andy Reid, and hopefully he's OK after his health scare.  But now it's back to the business at hand, and his return to Philadelphia is close to a must-win game for the Chiefs.  Kansas City has lost two in a row for the first time in forever and is in sole possession of last place in the AFC West for the first time in nearly as long.  So, yeah, this is an important one.  Especially since I don't see the Raiders or Chargers losing much.

Cardinals (3-0) at Rams (3-0): Rams-Finally, the NFC West teams start playing each other!  Which means we'll finally see one of them lose!  I don't say that because of any ill will towards the Cardinals or Rams.  I just think it's time to start letting that division settle itself out.  We're still a long way from the finish line, of course, but this is a big one nonetheless.  The first of two big ones at SoFi Stadium this week.  And, as good as I think the Cardinals are, they almost lost to Jacksonville last week.  Thus, I'm picking the Rams.

Seahawks (1-2) at 49ers (2-1): Seattle-All that "what's wrong with the Chiefs" talk has helped shield the Seahawks from criticism.  But Seattle is in the exact same boat.  Lost two straight, alone in last place in a stacked division.  Except the situation may be even more pressing for the Seahawks since (a) the NFC West is stronger than the AFC West and (b) they're playing a division game this week.  They know the urgency.  Thankfully, Seattle is distracted by the Mariners and Kraken right now, but a 1-3 last-place Seahawks team would get their attention real quick.

Ravens (2-1) at Broncos (3-0): Baltimore-So many people are talking about Denver as if they're suddenly this force simply because they're undefeated.  Yes, they're 3-0, and they deserve all the props for that.  But, let's be real here, they should be 3-0.  They've played the Giants, Jaguars and Jets.  So let's not get carried away about the Broncos.  Let's see how they do against the Ravens, the first actual good opponent on their schedule, before we declare them Super Bowl Champions.

Steelers (1-2) at Packers (2-1): Green Bay-Is it possible the Steelers still have a hangover from last season?  Because I don't know how else to explain their last two weeks.  Or maybe they're just not as good as we all thought.  Green Bay's done the exact opposite.  The Packers got their butts kicked in Week 1, but have rebounded with two solid wins, which I think proves Aaron Rodgers' theory that they simply had a bad game against the Saints.  They've since resumed their rightful place atop the NFC North.

Buccaneers (2-1) at Patriots (1-2): Tampa Bay-Of course they were gonna set it up so that Brady could set the record on Sunday Night Football in his return to Foxboro!  All week, we've heard all kinds of details about how things in New England were actually pretty messy behind the scenes for quite a while.  It was just shielded by all the winning.  So maybe it shouldn't have been a surprise that Brady left.  I'd expect he'll get a nice ovation, then do what he did in Foxboro for the better part of 20 years.  Win.

Raiders (3-0) at Chargers (2-1): Las Vegas-I'm not sure why the Raiders are already getting their second Monday night game in Week 4.  But it sure worked out that this matchup with the Chargers is effectively for first place in the AFC West.  They're both potential playoff teams, so this is a big one.  Especially since the Chargers already have a win over Kansas City.  I've just been so impressed by the Raiders and how they've won three different ways in three games, though.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 12-4
Overall: 32-17