Picking Football Games, Week 1

We've made it!  It's football season!  And, the return of football season also means the return of my weekly picks.  For those of you who are uninitiated, I always pick the Thursday night game, but don't do the blog post until right before the Sunday games.  The only exceptions are Week 1 and Thanksgiving.

Another note for the uninitiated...I only pick winners.  I don't care about the spread.  Why?  Because the spread is irrelevant!  "Covered the spread" isn't a column in the standings!  It's either a win or a loss.  Or a tie.  So, that's my rationale there.  And with that, it's on to the picks...

Cowboys at Buccaneers: Tampa Bay-The last time Brady played in the Kickoff Game, the Patriots got their butts kicked (remember, two years ago they did Bears-Packers for the 100th anniversary).  Is it too much to hope the same thing happens again?  Probably.  I do think this year's edition of the Cowboys will be much better than last season's injury-plagued version.  They're not gonna spoil the Bucs' championship celebration, though.

Eagles at Falcons: Philadelphia-Neither one of these teams figures to be in the mix as the season goes on.  But this is a good chance to start the season on the right foot.  It's also a good chance for Jalen Hurts to justify the belief that the Eagles have in him.  I, for one, don't see it.  But that doesn't mean they aren't capable of beating the Falcons.

Steelers at Bills: Buffalo-If there's one team that's ready for the season to start, it's probably the Bills after all of their offseason turmoil.  As for the Steelers, they're probably just ready to turn the page after the way last season finished.  The good news is they won't have to worry about being the last undefeated team and wondering how long it lasts.  Because, even with everything they had to go through, the Bills should still be able to pull this one out.

Vikings at Bengals: Minnesota-Cincinnati has a chance to make a real statement.  Which the Bengals need to do in a division with three playoff teams.  They also have the benefit of starting at home.  And they get Joe Burrow back.  Even still, I'm not sure they beat the Vikings.  Minnesota's the type of team that will catch you when you're not looking.  I think that's exactly what'll happen here.  That's why I'm picking the Vikings.

49ers at Lions: San Francisco-This is a good opportunity for both San Francisco and Detroit to start the season with a win.  And Jared Goff has got to feel good about playing a familiar opponent in his Lions debut.  Unfortunately, his current team isn't as good as the one he left.  I know a lot of people are higher on the 49ers than I am, but I do agree that they'll start the season with a victory.

Cardinals at Titans: Arizona-Tennessee made the playoffs last season and Arizona should've.  They've both got a good chance of getting there this season, too.  So this is actually a big one right off the bat.  Especially for the Cardinals, who have to deal with the Seahawks and Rams.  In other words, the Titans are better-equipped to bounce back from a loss than Arizona is.

Seahawks at Colts: Seattle-Indy has gone from Philip Rivers to Carson Wentz, who gets a chance to prove the Eagles were wrong for letting him go (which I think they were...he wasn't the problem).  The Seahawks are a tough draw in the opener, though.  I'm just not sure if they can hang with Seattle.  Traveling and playing an early game has proven not to be an issue for them.  It should be made even easier by the fact that they only have to go to the Midwest.

Chargers at Washington: Chargers-Call me crazy, but I think the Chargers have the potential to be a real dark horse team this year.  (I did pick them to make the playoffs, after all!)  They can really start to hammer that point across if they pull off a win after their Week 1 cross-country trip.  It was a cute story in Washington last year with the name change and winning the (incredibly weak) division and Alex Smith winning Comeback Player of the Year.  Reality will begin to set in early this season.  Because Washington is not a very good Football Team.

Jets at Panthers: Carolina-Either Carolina or the Jets is gonna get a Week 1 win.  That's the good news.  Because the wins after Week 1 will be few and far between.  While I'm excited to see what Zach Wilson can do, I think the first few weeks will be a struggle (which they usually are for rookie quarterbacks on bad teams).  That's why I'm going with the Panthers at home.

Jaguars at Texans: Jacksonville-For some reason, the NFL likes to have the bad teams play each other in Week 1 (probably because they have all the good teams play each other for TV).  As a result, Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer get a very winnable game in their NFL debuts.  In fact, I don't just think it's winnable.  I'd be very surprised if it's not a Jacksonville win.  Although, this is one of the few games on the Texans' schedule that they consider winnable themselves, so it should still be close.

Browns at Chiefs: Kansas City-Last season's playoff game between these two was highly entertaining!  Let's hope this one is just as good!  Tough draw for the Browns, too.  They had a brutal schedule to start the season two years ago, struggled out of the gate, and never really got going.  Hopefully that's not the case again in 2021 and they can build on that momentum from last season's playoff berth.  Even after starting 0-1.

Dolphins at Patriots: New England-Year 2 for the post-Brady Patriots should be much better than Year 1.  They actually have a new identity now, and I think moving on from Cam Newton was probably a good thing.  We'll see that on display in Week 1.  Frankly, I don't think this game will be particularly close.

Packers vs. Saints: New Orleans-I know what you're thinking: "He picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl, but he has them losing Week 1?"  Yes.  Yes I do.  It wasn't exactly a normal offseason in Green Bay and a matchup against a good Saints team, while it makes sense for FOX because it's a good featured national game, is bad for them.  The fact that it's being played in Jacksonville instead of New Orleans will help a little, but I just think the Saints are a little more prepared for it.  And you know they'll be motivated to win it for their city.

Broncos at Giants: Giants-It's crazy to think that even though a lot of people considered the Giants a "bad" team last season, they still almost won the division, and the only reason they didn't was because of a lot of close losses early in the season.  Here's their chance to begin rewriting that script.  Because Denver has also shown a knack for close, last-second, early-season losses.  This'll come down to a late field goal either way.

Bears at Rams: Rams-Let's try this again.  They scheduled the Rams for the Sunday night opener last season...only for the game to be played without fans.  That's no way to open a new stadium!  This year, they get a do-over.  And it'll be great to see that beautiful stadium filled with fans for the first time!  For all the opponents the NFL could've chosen, I think the Bears were a good one.  Not because I think Chicago deserves to be on national TV in Week 1, but because it should be a pretty easy Rams win.

Ravens at Raiders: Baltimore-Ditto about the Raiders.  Take two on the first NFL game with fans in Las Vegas.  I'm glad the NFL decided to give those two the Sunday and Monday night games again, so that they could still have that special moment.  Unfortunately for the Raiders, their opponent is significantly better than the Rams' opponent.  Baltimore was my preseason pick to make the Super Bowl, so it would be really bad if I picked them to lose in Week 1.