Last season, we learned that there are three really good teams in the NL Central. There are also two really bad teams in the NL Central. The Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates all made the playoffs in 2015, and this season doesn't really project to be that much different.
This division has also exposed the main flaw of the current playoff system. The NL Wild Card Game has been Central vs. Central twice in the last three years. Both times the Central division champion was the No. 1 seed and played the wild card winner in the Division Series. Under the previous format, where teams from the same division couldn't meet in the Division Series, the Cubs and Cardinals wouldn't have been able to play the Cardinals. They were both good enough to be in the NLCS. But it was impossible for that to happen since they played in the Division Series. I know that's not going to be the case every year, but the three NL Central teams had the three best records in baseball last season, yet it was only possible for one of them to be in the NLCS.
For the first time in a while, the Cubs have the burden of expectations on them. But we all saw how well that worked out for the 2015 Nationals. The Cardinals are going to win somewhere between 84 and 90 games because they always do. The Pirates, meanwhile, really need to win the division so that they can avoid the Wild Card Game and the other team's stud starter again.
1. Chicago Cubs: It's been 108 years since the Cubs last won the World Series. Cubs fans are really thinking this might be the year that drought ends, and they've got every reason to believe. On paper, this is the best team in baseball. By a wide margin. But we've seen the Cubs crumble under the weight of expectations before. Fortunately, they have two good teams in their division to push them. They're also fortunate to have three ridiculous starting pitchers. That's right. I said three. After being smacked around by the Mets and their four bonkers starters in the NLCS, they realized they needed more than just Arrieta and Lester. Enter John Lackey. Now they're three strong at the front of the rotation. Lackey wasn't the only former Cardinal to join the Cubs' side of the rivalry during the offseason. They pulled off a major coup by snagging Jason Heyward in free agency. He was supposed to replace Dexter Fowler in center field, but, surprise, surprise, Fowler re-upped with the Cubs, turning Jorge Soler into a top-notch pinch hitter. Fresh off a World Championship, Ben Zobrist has also been reunited with mad genius Joe Maddon, further improving Chicago's lineup. And it was the acquisition of Zobrist that made Starlin Castro expendable. Oh, and did I mention they have two of the absolute best players in the game in Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant? Like I said, people have high expectations of the Cubs for good reason. This team might even be better than the 2003 squad that Steve Bartman made famous.
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler-CF, Ben Zobrist-2B, Kris Bryant-3B, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Jason Heyward-RF, Kyle Schwarber-LF, Miguel Montero-C, Addison Russell-SS
Projected Rotation: Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks
Closer: Hector Rondon
Projected Record: 98-64
2. Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh has been one of the most consistently good teams in the game for the last three seasons. And all they have to show for it is one Division Series appearance and two home Wild Card Game losses (to be fair, those were against Madison Bumgarner and Jake Arrieta). This year they could easily finish with the second-best record in the Majors but not win the division again. It's just the unfortunate situation they're in of sharing a division with the Cubs. Pittsburgh's very good. They just aren't as good as Chicago. The Neil Walker trade was very smart. They needed a starter to replace the retired A.J. Burnett, and the Mets needed to do something with Jon Niese, so this was a perfect fit for both teams. Walker's departure moves Josh Harrison to second and Jung Ho Kang to third, which moves Jordy Mercer back into the starting lineup. They've also got David Freese, so if Mercer doesn't hit (which was his problem before), Kang can move back to short. The Pirates' outfield is the team's biggest strength, though. Andrew McCutchen is on the short list of the best players in baseball, and I absolutely love both Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte. Gerrit Cole is also among the best in the game. He continues to prove why the Pirates drafted him No. 1 overall in 2011. Mark Melancon has 84 saves in two seasons since become Pittsburgh's closer. He anchors a really solid bullpen.
Projected Lineup: Starling Marte-LF, Josh Harrison-2B, Andrew McCutchen-CF, Gregory Polanco-RF, Michael Morse-1B, Jung Ho Kang-3B, Francisco Cervelli-C, Jordy Mercer-SS
Projected Rotation: Francisco Liriano, Gerritt Cole, Jon Niese, Jeff Locke, Juan Nicasio
Closer: Mark Melancon
Projected Record: 90-72
3. St. Louis Cardinals: No matter what you think of the Cardinals going into the season, they always end up in the playoffs. Even though you've only heard of about half the guys on the team, St. Louis is remarkably consistent. Annoyingly so, as a matter of fact. Year after year, no matter who's injured and what random guy shows up, they win somewhere between 88-94 games before making a run in the postseason. This year they're the third-best team in the NL Central. So don't be surprised when they notch 97 wins and win the division. The pitching is one of the reasons why the Cardinals are so good. Adam Wainwright is back after missing most of last season due to that freak injury while he was batting. And they've brought in Mike Leake to fill that rotation spot vacated by John Lackey. Offensively, they're paced by the same three core guys, who are the only position players on the team you've ever heard of. Jhonny Peralta is once again injured. The Cardinals are wasting a lot of money on him. That's why they got Ruben Tejada from the Mets, although it looks like former Padres starter Jedd Gyorko is going to start the season as their everyday shortstop. They got Gyorko for Jon Jay, which means the outfield spots next to Matt Holliday are being entrusted to Randal Grichuk and Stephen Pisciotty. On paper, they aren't as good as either the Cubs are Pirates. But there's a reason the Cardinals are in the conversation every year. They're the Patriots of baseball. You can't ever count them out. You know they'll still be around come late September.
Projected Lineup: Matt Carpenter-3B, Randal Grichuk-CF, Matt Holliday-LF, Yadier Molina-C, Stephen Pisciotty-RF, Brandon Moss-1B, Jedd Gyorko-SS, Kolten Wong-2B
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Mike Leake, Jaime Garcia, Carlos Martinez
Closer: Trevor Rosenthal
Projected Record: 88-74
4. Cincinnati Reds: The Reds haven't pulled a complete Atlanta Braves, but they've come pretty close. Cincinnati didn't gut the entire team, but it's pretty clear they aren't planning on contending, either. The one guy they did get rid of was Todd Frazier, who was probably their best player last season. They traded Aroldis Chapman to the Dodgers, only to see that fall through and send him to the Yankees instead. They tried to unload Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips, too, but nobody wanted them. But with Bruce and Phillips still around to keep Joey Votto and Billy Hamilton company, the Reds are still going to score a whole bunch of runs in the Great American Small Park. Problem is, they'll also give up a lot. They no longer have a lefty-throwing Cuban fireballer at the back end of the bullpen, and the rotation's not much better. Cincinnati's best starter last season, Johnny Cueto, won a ring in Kansas City and is now applying his trade in San Francisco. Brandon Finnegan was the pitcher they got from the Royals for Cueto, and he's penciled in at No. 2 in the rotation between Raisel Iglesias. Who? Exactly. That's why the Reds are going to struggle in 2016. Especially in the NL Central, Cincinnati simply doesn't have the pitching to compete.
Projected Lineup: Billy Hamilton-CF, Brandon Phillips-2B, Joey Votto-1B, Jay Bruce-RF, Zack Cozart-SS, Adam Duvall-LF, Eugenio Suarez-3B, Devin Mesoraco-C
Projected Rotation: Raisel Iglesias, Brandon Finnegan, Alfredo Simon, Anthony DeSclafani, Homer Bailey (DL)
Closer: J.J. Hoover
Projected Record: 72-90
5. Milwaukee Brewers: Cincinnati's going to hit a little more than Milwaukee, which is why I give the Reds the slight edge in the battle for last place. But these two teams are remarkably close. The Brewers' top two players are still Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy, two perennial All-Stars. This year they're surrounded by a bunch of castoffs from other teams. Jean Segura is gone, replaced by Jonathan Villar, who lost his job in Houston to Carlos Correa. Another former Astro, Chris Carter, takes over at first base for Adam Lind. Adam Hill, who they got from Arizona for Segura, steps in at third, with former Met Kirk Nieuwenhuis finally getting a chance to start full-time in center. They've made a lot of offseason changes. Just like the Chicago White Sox, all of these new faces will either gel immediately with great results, or it'll be a total disaster. It's hard to tell which way that'll go right now. Unlike the White Sox, the Brewers don't have a great starting rotation. Wily Peralta will start on Opening Day, and Matt Garza hasn't really been that good since he came to Milwaukee two years ago. I have no idea who any of those guys in the Brewers' bullpen are. Closer Francisco Rodriguez has been liberated from this disaster and will have the chance to close for a contender in Detroit.
Projected Lineup: Jonathan Villar-SS, Aaron Hill-3B, Ryan Braun-LF, Chris Carter-1B, Jonathan Lucroy-C, Domingo Santana-RF, Scooter Gennett-2B, Kirk Nieuwenhuis-CF
Projected Rotation: Wily Peralta, Jimmy Nelson, Matt Garza, Taylor Jungmann, Chase Anderson
Closer: Will Smith
Projected Record: 70-92
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