Last season, I was dead wrong about the AL West. I was a big believer in the Seattle Mariners, thinking they had all the pieces to finally contend for a division title. Well, we all know how that turned out. The Mariners were the same dysfunctional mess they always are. And the Angels, the division champions in 2014, weren't able to back it up and the best player in baseball was left watching the postseason from the sidelines for the third time in his four-year career.
I also thought there was no way the Rangers would possibly be good, then they come out of nowhere, win the division, and their rookie manager earns Manager of the Year honors. Meanwhile, the Astros arrived about a year or two early. Everyone knew they were going to be good in 2016-17. In 2015? Not so much. Yet Houston was the story of baseball for five months before fading in September. But the Astros still won the Wild Card Game and gave the Royals all they could handle in the Division Series. There's no reason not to believe they'll be around for the long haul.
About the only thing I got right was not thinking Oakland would be any good. And they weren't. And they probably won't be again. But every time I think that about the Oakland A's, they end up making the playoffs. The current team doesn't have the talent that they've traded away since making that 2014 Wild Card Game appearance, but I've decided I'm not writing Oakland off completely. Just in case something crazy happens.
This is Houston's division to lose, though. The Astros are significantly better than the other four teams. Texas will regress back to the mean, Seattle will be improved, but isn't quite there yet, and I don't know what's going on with the Angels. That's a team that should be good, but rarely is.
1. Houston Astros: All that losing they did for so long paid off in a big way last season. Now they have the burden of expectations. Let's see how they respond. I think they'll do fine. In fact, I think they might even be a little better this season. Dallas Keuchel is the reigning Cy Young winner, Collin McHugh is a solid No. 2, and their rotation got even stronger with Doug Fister coming over from Washington. And that leads into that great bullpen anchored by Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek and Tony Sipp. Carlos Correa is the Next Big Thing is the sport. He burst onto the scene in 2015, capturing Rookie of the Year honors at the ripe old age of 20. Just imagine how good this guy is going to be. With Correa, Jose Altuve and Carlos Gomez up the middle, Houston is set. So set, in fact, that George Springer is going to play right with Colby Rasmus in left. That gives the Astros three center fielders in their regular lineup. Chris Carter is no longer with the team, so the leading candidate to take over at first base is lefty Jon Singleton. DH Evan Gattis is currently on the shelf, too, but Houston has the pieces to overcome an injury or two. Was last season a fluke? That's the challenge they'll be up against. I don't think it was, though. All the experts agreed that the Astros had so much young talent that they were going to be a very, very good baseball team at some point in the not-too-distant future. I think that time arrived in 2015. Because I don't see any reason for this Astros train to stop rolling in 2016.
Projected Lineup: Jose Altuve-2B, Colby Rasmus-LF, Carlos Correa-SS, Carlos Gomez-CF, George Springer-RF, Evan Gattis-DH, Jon Singleton-1B, Luis Valbuena-3B, Jason Castro-C
Projected Rotation: Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Doug Fister, Lance McCullers (DL), Mike Fiers
Closer: Luke Gregerson
Projected Record: 92-70
2. Seattle Mariners: While I'm not as high on the Mariners as I was last season, I still think Seattle has a decent chance of contending in the AL West. Now that the Blue Jays have ended their postseason drought, the Mariners' streak is currently the longest in baseball. But I'll give them credit for finally realizing that they need more than Felix Hernandez if they hope to end that streak. King Felix has carried this team for so long that he deserves the opportunity to pitch for a contender, and the Mariners have finally developed something that resembles a Major League lineup behind him. It all starts with Robinson Cano, of course, but Kyle Seager is a star, too, and Nelson Cruz put up fantastic numbers last season at DH. And I like the spare parts they've added to fill out the roster. Leonys Martin from Texas, Nori Aoki from the Giants, longtime Blue Jay Adam Lind from the Brewers, catcher Chris Iannetta from the Angels. It's very similar to what the White Sox did in building around a few solid core pieces and getting rid of everybody else. If it works, the Mariners may actually score more than three runs a game this season. Which I'm sure Felix would appreciate. So would the rest of the rotation, including Hisashi Iwakuma, who burned the Dodgers to return to Seattle, Taijuan Walker, who won 11 games as a rookie, and Wade Miley, who came over in a trade with the Red Sox. They even addressed their miserable bullpen, snagging Steve Cishek to close and Joaquin Benoit to set up. We've seen this before with the Mariners, where people get their hopes up only to be shot down by an underachieving bunch. But with the best player in franchise history taking his place in Cooperstown this summer, maybe some of the magic of 1995 will rub off on this current bunch and the Mariners will be playing in October for the first time since 2001.
Projected Lineup: Leonys Martin-CF, Nori Aoki-LF, Robinson Cano-2B, Nelson Cruz-DH, Kyle Seager-3B, Adam Lind-1B, Seth Smith-RF, Chris Iannetta-C, Ketel Marte-SS
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Wade Miley, Taijuan Walker, Nathan Karns
Closer: Steve Cishek
Projected Record: 83-79
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Orange County, California: Does anyone know why the Angels insist on doing everything the hard way? They've got the best player in baseball, a future Hall of Famer, a reliable ace, and a ton of money to spend. Yet they make the most curious decisions on how to spend it. I like the addition of Andrelton Simmons a lot, especially since he wasn't going anywhere in Atlanta, but they also became the third different team to trade for Yunel Escobar during the 2015 calendar year. Am I missing something? When did Yunel Escobar become this valuable commodity every team decided they MUST have? (Or was he traded three times for other reasons?) And I'm glad Daniel Nava finally got liberated from Boston, but he's really your starting left fielder? With Johnny Giavotella, Kole Calhoun and C.J. Cron already in the projected lineup? I don't get it. Looks like it'll all be up to Trout and Albert again. The top of the rotation looks good with Jered Weaver, Garrett Richards and C.J. Wilson, but Weaver never gets the respect he deserves and Wilson is once again banged up. Matt Shoemaker, meanwhile, went from Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2014 to a 7-10 afterthought in 2015. Sophomore slump, or has everybody else figured him out? The bullpen's got Huston Street and a bunch of other guys not relevant enough to mention. It's just so disappointing that the Angels are what they are. Because they could be so much more. And baseball fans really want to see Mike Trout under October's bright lights. Which doesn't look like it's going to happen with the rest of the team they're going to put on the field this season.
Projected Lineup: Andrelton Simmons-SS, Johnny Giavotella-2B, Mike Trout-CF, Albert Pujols-DH, Kole Calhoun-RF, Yunel Escobar-3B, Daniel Nava-LF, C.J. Cron-1B, Carlos Perez-C
Projected Rotation: Jered Weaver, Garrett Richards, C.J. Wilson, Andrew Heaney, Matt Shoemaker
Closer: Huston Street
Projected Record: 80-82
4. Texas Rangers: The other surprise playoff team out of the AL West in 2015 was the other one that plays in Texas. Forgive me if I think that one was the fluke. Personally, I think the Rangers significantly overachieved last season, and I'd be surprised to see them do it again. They got a tremendous bounce-back year from Prince Fielder and Adrian Beltre's an absolute beast, but I'm still shocked as to how they even made the playoffs. Let alone how they were leading Game 5 against the Blue Jays until the Bat Flip Heard Round Canada. A lot of the credit for that has to go to Cole Hamels, who was mercifully let out of baseball purgatory in Philadelphia and thrust into a pennant race on a team that needed an ace. Much to the Rangers' surprise, Hamels decided to stick around, so they'll have a dynamic 1-2 punch when Yu Darvish comes back from Tommy John surgery in May. And they've got plenty of time to make up ground with both of them in the rotation should they have a bad April. Another guy on the DL is Josh Hamilton. What else is new? The Rangers clearly don't have any clue when he'll be back, seeing as they told Ian Desmond (who I didn't even realize wasn't on the Nationals anymore) that he'll be their left fielder all season. If Desmond's playing left and Prince is ensconced at DH, where does that put Hamilton? You can't put him in right. That's where Shin-Soo Choo plays. And Delino DeShields, Jr., is too good a center fielder to mess with that. Which makes Hamilton a very expensive pinch hitter. Let's see how well that goes over.
Projected Lineup: Delino DeShields Jr.-CF, Shin-Soo Choo-RF, Adrian Beltre-3B, Prince Fielder-DH, Elvis Andrus-SS, Ian Desmond-LF, Roughned Odor-2B, Mitch Moreland-1B, Robinson Chirinos-C
Projected Rotation: Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish (DL), Martin Perez, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland
Closer: Shawn Tolleson
Projected Record: 77-85
5. Oakland Athletics: What's there to say about the A's? I'm trying to be as positive as possible about teams' chances heading into the season, but I've seriously heard of about three guys on Oakland's roster. Despite pitching for an incredibly bad team, Sonny Gray finished third in Cy Young voting last year. It'll be up to him again because, honestly, I don't know how this team is going to score any runs. When your big off-season acquisition is Yonder Alonso, that pretty much sums up the state of your team. I can't even say with 100 percent certainty where guys are going to line up defensively because not only is that different every game, it seems to change in the middle of games quite frequently. I get it. Oakland's a small-market team and they have to do things differently than everybody else, including that black-and-orange-wearing team across the Bay that's due for another World Series title this season. But they've made it work in the past. As recently as two years ago, in fact. I just don't see how it's going to work with this current group. Unlike the National League, which is very top-heavy, there's a lot of parity in the AL. Most of the teams are bunched closely together without much to separate them. The exception is Oakland. I think everyone would be surprised if the A's were playing in October. Knowing that mad genius Billy Beane, though, that's what he wants us all to think. That means he's got us right where he wants us.
Projected Lineup: Billy Burns-CF, Marcus Semien-SS, Josh Reddick-RF, Yonder Alonso-1B, Billy Butler-DH, Khris Davis-LF, Stephen Vogt-C, Danny Valencia-3B, Jed Lowrie-2B
Projected Rotation: Sonny Gray, Jesse Hahn, Kendall Graveman, Chris Bassitt, Rich Hill
Closer: Sean Doolittle
Projected Record: 69-93
So. now that the AL is complete, to summarize the playoff picks:
East: Yankees
Central: Tigers
West: Astros
Wild Card 1: Royals
Wild Card 2: Blue Jays
AL Champion: Astros
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