Unlike the American League, where there's a significant amount of parity and some close division races are expected, the National League is very much a tale of the haves and the have-nots. That was the case last year, and it'll probably be even more prevalent this season. But that doesn't mean we won't have any division races. In fact, I'm expecting a good one between the Mets and Nationals in the NL East.
Last season, everyone gave the National League pennant to the Nationals before Spring Training even started. Instead, they turned into the most disappointing good team in baseball. Not only did they not win the division, they missed the playoffs entirely. Despite having the unanimous MVP and a guy who threw two no-hitters!
Instead it was the Mets that won both the NL East and National League pennant in 2015. And now all the pressure is on them to repeat. We enter 2016 with the script flipped. The Mets are the overwhelming division favorite, with Washington as the potential spoiler. Miami should finish third, if only because they've got plenty of talent on their roster and they're actually going to try. Unlike the Braves and Phillies. The Mets and Nationals will play 38 games each against those two teams. Whichever one has a better record in those 38 is your likely division champion.
1. New York Mets: Expectations for the Mets are extremely high, and with good reason. They got to the World Series on the strength of that ridiculous starting pitching...and all four are back. That's reason enough to think the Mets can make another run. And, oh yeah, Zack Wheeler will be back from Tommy John surgery in July, giving them five! first-rate starters. Throw in an excellent closer in Jeurys Familia, and it'll be very hard for opposing offenses to score runs against the New York Mets this season. Of course, it was the trade deadline acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes when they really took off last season. I think the Mets were content to let Cespedes walk away in free agency, so it came as a little bit of a surprise (and a pleasant one at that) when they re-signed arguably their most important player. And, after playing for four different teams in two seasons, Cespedes will be a Met for the forseeable future. Keeping him around became a necessity when Daniel Murphy signed with the Nationals, but I actually like what the Mets did to replace Murphy. Neil Walker is better defensively and close enough to on par with Murphy offensively that the swap can be considered a push. It was also smart to trade Jon Niese, who had plenty of value to a number of other teams, for somebody they could use, and Walker definitely fits the bill. And Asdrubal Cabrera is an upgrade at short over the Ruben Tejada/Wilmer Flores tag team. Tejada and Wilmer both became cult heroes last season, but Cabrera is better than both of them, and he'll stabilize the shortstop position. The Mets may even be better than they were last season. But will it be enough to hold off the Nationals?
Projected Lineup: Curtis Granderson-RF, Asdrubal Cabrera-SS, David Wright-3B, Yoenis Cespedes-CF, Lucas Duda-1B, Travis d'Arnaud-C, Michael Conforto-LF, Neil Walker-2B
Projected Rotation: Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Jacob de Grom, Steven Matz, Bartolo Colon
Closer: Jeurys Familia
Projected Record: 93-69
2. Washington Nationals: The Nationals' 2015 season can only be classified as a disappointment. On a number of levels. They crumbled under the weight of expectations, despite having the best player in the National League and Max Scherzer proving that he was worth every penny they paid him. The problem was everyone else, including manager Matt Williams, who was let go and replaced by Dusty Baker, a bold move by a team with a definite "win now" mentality. Baker will need the Nationals' other players to play up to their potential, starting with everyone in the lineup not named Bryce Harper. They got Ben Revere to lead off and play center field in a trade with the Blue Jays, but it cost them closer Drew Storen. Now they're stuck with last season's trade deadline pickup, Jonathan Papelbon, who can only be classified as a cancer in the Nationals' clubhouse, as their closer. (When you start a fight in the dugout with your team's unquestioned best player, it's YOU that's the problem.) The rotation is a little thinner without Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister, so Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez will really need to pitch like they did two seasons ago when Washington won the division. Snagging Daniel Murphy was a major coup, if only because it was a shot aimed directly at the Mets. The Nationals are a better team than they showed last season, when they still finished in second place. This year, they don't have the weight of expectations on them. Let's see if that's good for them.
Projected Lineup: Ben Revere-CF, Daniel Murphy-2B, Bryce Harper-RF, Ryan Zimmerman-1B, Jayson Werth-LF, Anthony Rendon-3B, Danny Espinosa-SS, Wilson Ramos-C
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark, Joe Ross
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon
Projected Record: 89-73
3. Miami Marlins: Imagine if they'd actually gotten a whole season out of both Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon last season. They still wouldn't have contended, but they could've made things a little more interesting in the NL East. The Marlins are now managed by Don Mattingly, who had a mutual divorce with the Dodgers after failing to get LA past the Division Series year after year. In Miami, he won't have as good of a team. But he also won't have the weight of the world on his shoulders, and he'll actually be able to manage without every little move being overly scrutinized. And he's definitely a better manager than Dan Jennings. Jose Fernandez is a stud, and he'll be joined in the rotation by former Oriole Wei-Yin Chen this season. Their bullpen was weakened by the loss of Steve Cishek, but new closer A.J. Ramos went 32-for-38 on saves last season. The most important guy on this team, though, obviously, is Giancarlo Stanton. He needs to stay healthy for Miami to make any noise in 2016. The rest of this young, talented lineup is very good, but Stanton is what makes the Marlins go. Regardless, third place is a virtual lock for this team. The Mets and Nationals are better than they are, while the Braves and Phillies don't care at all. And with just a couple breaks and Mattingly making the right moves, the Marlins might actually be in contention for a wild card.
Projected Lineup: Dee Gordon-2B, Martin Prado-3B, Giancarlo Stanton-RF, Christian Yelich-LF, Justin Bour-1B, Marcell Ozuna-CF, Adeiny Hechavarria-SS, J.T. Realmuto-C
Projected Rotation: Jose Fernandez, Wei-Yin Chen, Tom Koehler, Adam Conley, Jarred Cosart
Closer: A.J. Ramos
Projected Record: 79-83
4. Atlanta Braves: Congratulations to Justin Upton and Shelby Miller for getting out of Atlanta while they still could. I just feel bad for Freddie Freeman. He's the one guy they've made it clear is untouchable, so he'll be subjected to this entire rebuilding process. Freeman and Nick Markakis are the only guys I've ever heard of on a team that's trying its best to be an East Coast version of the Oakland A's. Another one bit the dust the other day when they released Nick Swisher, who might be done after not hitting in both Cleveland and Atlanta last year. I think I understand what they're trying to do. But I don't like it at all. You don't have to intentionally suck now in order to be good when your new stadium opens! At least it lowers everyone's expectations. The Braves aren't going to be good. Everyone knows that. They aren't making any effort to be good. That doesn't mean they'll finish in last place, though. Because fortunately for them, the Phillies, who also play in the NL East, are equally bad. They'll battle it out for last place. Atlanta gets the slight edge for fourth because Julio Teheran is better than any starting pitcher the Phillies have.
Projected Lineup: Michael Bourn-CF, Erick Aybar-SS, Nick Markakis-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Hector Olivera-LF, A.J. Pierzynski-C, Jace Peterson-2B, Adonis Garcia-3B
Projected Rotation: Julio Teheran, Bud Norris, Matt Wisler, Jhoulys Chacin, Mike Foltynewicz
Closer: Arodys Vizcaino
Projected Record: 65-97
5. Philadelphia Phillies: It wasn't that long ago that the Phillies were the poster children for all National League franchises. Those glory days are long gone, with Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz the only remnants of their 2008 World Series championship team. Philadelphia's trying to mix in some good young talent, but is still weighed down by Howard's massive contract, and he's nowhere near the player he once was. Third baseman Maikel Franco is a star in the making, and I really Odubel Herrera, too. But they've got Peter Bourjos in right field. I've made my thoughts about Peter Bourjos known in the past, and that opinion hasn't changed. But if any team can get away with having him as a starting outfielder, it's the Phillies. They're not going anywhere and they know it. That's why they traded Cole Hamels, the longtime Face of the Franchise, at the deadline last season. The new "ace" of the rotation is Jeremy Hellickson, the former AL Rookie of the Year with the Rays. Behind Hellickson are former Pirate Charlie Morton and three guys who are all 25 or younger. That's their strategy for this season. Bring the young guys up to the Major League level, take your licks, and prepare to be good in the future. It worked for the Astros. Maybe in five years, we'll be talking about the Phillies in the same way. This season, though, will be a long one. They'll be pushing the 100-loss plateau.
Projected Lineup: Odubel Herrera-CF, Freddy Galvis-SS, Maikel Franco-3B, Ryan Howard-1B, Cody Asche-LF, Carlos Ruiz-C, Cesar Hernandez-2B, Peter Bourjos-RF
Projected Rotation: Jeremy Hellickson, Charlie Morton, Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez
Closer: Edward Mujica
Projected Record: 59-103
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