Now that the First Four is over (someone please let FDU and Vanderbilt know that the First Four started) and we no longer have to pretend Tulsa belonged in the tournament, we're ready to start the tournament proper. The greatest two days in sports are ahead of us. Thursday and Friday of the first week of the NCAA Tournament.
And now that we've got that convenient 64-team bracket without that annoying "vs. winner of..." that the First Four gives us, I can actually take a look at the whole thing and make some picks. Sports Illustrated is going with Kansas, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Michigan State, and I can't say I disagree with that. Kansas, North Carolina and Michigan State are the three best teams in the tournament, and in a West region that looks like it could be full of upsets, I like Oklahoma and Buddy Hield to come out of it.
It'll be much easier to break this down region by region, so let's start in the South where No. 1 overall seed Kansas resides. They didn't make things easy for the Jayhawks, either. But they're the most talented team in this region, which I think will be the difference. There are probably a lot of people picking UConn in the second round (the Final Four IS in Texas, and it does seem to be a rule that UConn wins the national title when the Final Four is in Texas). I also think they'll get a challenge from Cal in the Sweet 16 (after Cal beats South Dakota State, which will give us our 5-12 upset against Maryland). As for the bottom half of that region, I've got no idea. Villanova always chokes i the Tournament. In fact, I can see them losing to Iowa. Miami's not that good, either. Frankly, I can see the Arizona-Wichita State winner making it all the way to the Elite Eight.
Kansas's Final Four opponent will come out of the West, where Oregon is the top seed, yet no one seems to be picking the Ducks. In fact, there are a lot of people who have Oregon losing to Baylor in a Sweet 16 game that will test the contrast on your TV as much as that Michigan-Syracuse Final Four game a couple years ago did. Problem is, I'm not sure Baylor gets there. Getting past Yale and Duke is a very difficult proposition. If the Bears do make it to Anaheim, I agree they'd be a tough matchup for Oregon. But I'm going with Duke. Baylor reaching the Sweet 16 would also make it a Big 12 party in Anaheim. Oklahoma should be there, and Texas A&M is still an honorary Big 12 member (as much as I would love to see Texas beat them, it's not happening; neither is the Texas vs. VCU Shaka Smart Bowl). I just think Oklahoma's the most talented team in this region, and the matchups are incredibly favorable for a Sooners trip to Houston.
North Carolina is heavily favored in a loaded East. The Tar Heels' biggest challenge might come from Kentucky, which looks like the Kentucky team we normally expect to see for really the first time this season. Remember, two years ago, nobody was talking about Kentucky, and they ended up in the Championship Game as an 8-seed. Then last year they went into the Final Four undefeated and lost to Wisconsin. I don't really know if it's possible for Kentucky to be a "sleeper" Final Four pick, but there's a good number of people that wouldn't be surprised to see the Wildcats in Houston. If North Carolina plays the way they did in the ACC Tournament, though, they ain't losing to any of these teams. Especially if they play Notre Dame again in the Elite 8, which the bracket indicates just might happen.
I want very badly for the top two seeds in the Midwest to reach the Regional Final. Because Michigan State should've been the 1-seed over Virginia, and they're going to prove it by knocking the Cavaliers out of the Tournament for the third consecutive year. Iowa State appears to be the team most capable of preventing that matchup, but they've first got to worry about Iona in a game that could be as high-scoring as the NBA All-Star Game. I'm not sleeping on Utah, either. That's the second-best team out of a very strong Pac-12. Michigan State's the best team in this region, though.
So, I agree with Sports Illustrated. My Final Four is Kansas, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Michigan State. Kansas and Oklahoma played a phenomenal double-overtime game in Lawrence when Oklahoma was ranked No. 1, and I think a Final Four meeting between the rivals would be very similar. Buddy Hield will be the best player on the floor, but Kansas will be the best team on the floor, which will be the difference. North Carolina-Michigan State is much more of a toss-up. I'd love to see this matchup, if just to see Roy Williams and Tom Izzo try to out-coach each other. If North Carolina's playing well, they're the better team. But they almost have to be perfect, and Michigan State is very good at making teams play their game. I don't think North Carolina would be an exception, so I give the slight edge to Sparty.
That gives me a National Championship Game between Kansas and Michigan State. But, like I've been saying all along, I think Kansas is the best team in the nation. They won't make the same mistakes against Michigan State that North Carolina will. It'll be Rock Chalk Championship.
Meanwhile, in the UConn Invitational, it'll take an upset of epic proportions to end Breanna Stewart's career with anything other than a fourth straight National Championship. I'm talking a "biggest upset in NCAA history" type of upset. And should UConn do it, it would put a bow on perhaps the single greatest college career any player's ever had.
As hard to believe as it may be, there are 63 other teams in the women's tournament. It would be easy to go straight chalk, especially seeing as UConn, South Carolina, Notre Dame and Baylor have separated themselves so far from everybody else this season. Except I don't think you should be writing that Women's Final Four in ink just yet. UConn and South Carolina are safe bets, but I'm not so sure about the other two.
Notre Dame has lost the National Championship Game in four of the last five years. That's their thing. But in the Elite 8, they'll have to face either a Maryland team that was in the Final Four last season or a talented Kentucky squad that'll be playing at home. Kentucky has been to the Elite 8 so many times in recent years, but always against UConn. Knowing that this is their chance to finally not have to deal with the Huskies will make Kentucky very dangerous. Especially in their home arena (even if they don't play at Rupp all the time, they still won't have to travel). I still like Maryland to beat them, but Kentucky won't go down quietly. And, for some reason, I think Maryland will beat Notre Dame, too.
Baylor will be at an advantage playing in Dallas, so I think they will go through, but don't sleep on Texas A&M or Oregon State. Or Louisville for that matter. Any one of those four teams is capable of winning two games once they all get together in Dallas. In fact, I'm going to call the upset and say Texas A&M beats Baylor in the Sweet 16, which gets Oregon State to the first Final Four in program history.
Like I said, don't just go with the chalk. My Women's Final Four is UConn, Oregon State, South Carolina and Maryland. I'm really high on Maryland. I'll say that after they beat Notre Dame, they go and beat South Carolina, too. But no one's stopping UConn.
A fourth straight National Championship, a fourth straight Final Four MVP, another undefeated season (one loss in three years). If Breanna Stewart isn't the greatest player in college basketball history, she's definitely on the short list. This tournament will be a coronation. If it's not, that'll be an even bigger story.
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