It's here! Baseball season is finally upon us! This year, instead of just our Sunday night teaser before Opening Day on Monday, we've got a whole slate of Sunday games, highlighted by the World Series rematch between the Mets and Royals.
But before all that, we've got to finish the season preview. As usual, Part 6 is the NL West, which once again boasts a pair of World Series contenders in the rival Giants and Dodgers. You've also got a Diamondbacks team that was more active than anybody during the offseason. Will it make Arizona a contender in the National League? They're the one team I have a question about. The Padres and Rockies...not so much.
In my opinion, the NL West title will once again come down to the Giants and Dodgers. Although, unlike recent seasons, the Dodgers probably don't come in as a clear favorite. They lost their second-best pitcher (to a division rival, no less), while San Francisco got better. This could be as tight a race as I'm expecting Mets-Nationals to be in the East.
1. San Francisco Giants: This is an even-numbered year, so there's really no need to even have a season. Just fast forward to October and the Giants' victory parade. And I'm not just saying that because of superstition. I'm saying that because the Giants are really, really good. For all the talk about the Mets and the NL Central teams, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see San Francisco's rite of even year October continue. Why? Because they might have the best pitching staff in the National League this side of the Mets. Madison Bumgarner is obviously a stud. Then they went out and added Johnny Cueto fresh off his World Series win in Kansas City, and Jeff Samardzija after that one-year stint with the White Sox. Add in Jake Peavy, who now drops to a more appropriate No. 4 in the rotation, and Matt Cain, who may finally be healthy, and you've got a pitching staff that isn't going to allow very many runs in 2016. They should score more than they have in the past, too. Adding Denard Span to play center field and leadoff was a great addition. That moves Angel Pagan to left and out of the leadoff spot, which makes the lineup even longer. Keeping guys healthy will be a key, though, especially the marquee names of Posey, Pence and Belt. Because outside of Gregor Blanco, they don't really have a bench. Injuries are probably the only thing that can derail the Giants this season. But their pitching, which also includes a dynamite bullpen, is so good that they might be able to overcome a DL trip here or there to one of their regulars. I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a trade deadline move, either.
Projected Lineup: Denard Span-CF, Joe Panik-2B, Buster Posey-C, Hunter Pence-RF, Brandon Belt-1B, Angel Pagan-LF, Matt Duffy-3B, Brandon Crawford-SS
Projected Rotation: Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Jake Peavy, Matt Cain
Closer: Santiago Casilla
Projected Record: 90-72
2. Los Angeles Dodgers: Don Mattingly and the Dodgers came to a mutual decision that he should move on mainly because he couldn't get them out of the Division Series. Now it's Dave Roberts' turn to bear the weight of expectations in the City of Angels. Although, those expectations are a little more tempered this season. Why? Because Clayton Kershaw is now the only pitcher they've got, and he can only throw once every five days. Hyung-Jin Ryu, Brett Anderson and Brandon McCarthy are all still recovering from the injuries that forced them out last year. They replaced Greinke with Japanese stud Kenta Maeda, but who knows what to expect from him in his first season on this side of the Pacific? That deep lineup has always been their backup plan, but the bats were completely shut down by the Mets in the Division Series. They have cleaned the lineup up a little bit. Jimmy Rollins lost his job to early Rookie of the Year favorite Corey Seager last September, and he's now in Chicago. They still have the four outfielder problem, but Andre Ethier is currently injured, so they're OK for now on that front. Besides, Joc Pederson and Yasiel Puig can't go into the same hitting funks they went in last season. Pederson went from Rookie of the Year favorite and All-Star starter in July to batting eighth/benched in September and October, while Puig had more stretches than I can count in 2015 where he was virtually absent. That can't happen again. The Dodgers have so much talent that it's unrealistic and unfair to rely on Adrian Gonzalez and his continued brilliance to do all of the hitting for everyone. That lineup will get even stronger as they get starters back from injuries. At full strength, the Dodgers have the deepest lineup (starters & bench) in the game. For the last couple seasons, they've relied on their pitching to carry them. This year, I think those roles will reverse. Then maybe they can get Kershaw some help later in the season.
Projected Lineup: Carl Crawford-LF, Chase Utley-2B, Joc Pederson-CF, Adrian Gonzalez-1B, Yasiel Puig-RF, Corey Seager-SS, Justin Turner-3B, A.J. Ellis-C
Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Scott Kazmir, Kenta Maeda, Alex Wood, Ross Stripling
Closer: Kenley Jansen
Projected Record: 88-74
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: There's always that one team that's super active in the offseason, only to have none of those moves work as they struggle through a disappointing season. Last year, it was the Red Sox and Padres, the year before that it was the Blue Jays. The leading candidate for that award this year has to be the Arizona Diamondbacks. A complete overhaul that even included disgusting new uniforms was highlighted by the signing of Zack Greinke and the trade for Shelby Miller. Johnson and Schilling they're not, but they certainly give Arizona's pitching staff an instant upgrade, while moving Patrick Corbin down to a more appropriate No. 3 spot in the rotation. Problem is they didn't do much to address their offensive deficiencies. Paul Goldschmidt is probably the best player you've never heard of, and he's been the bedrock of this lineup for a while. They don't have anybody around him, though. And center fielder A.J. Pollock, arguably their second-best player, is out for a while (if not the entire season) after breaking his elbow in one of the final Spring Training games. That's where I think Arizona is going to struggle. They need to score runs, and they'll need someone other than Goldschmidt in order to do that. The Pollock injury moves Chris Owings to center field, while Nick Ahmed and former Brewer Jean Segura will anchor the middle infield (that was originally supposed to be a rotation between the three). They also need Yasmany Tomas to be the player they invested all that money in. You can't really say he did that last season. Arizona has the potential to surprise or, at the very least, be a spoiler. I just don't see how they're going to score enough runs to challenge the Dodgers and Giants, though.
Projected Lineup: Chris Owings-CF, David Peralta-RF, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Yasmany Tomas-LF, Jean Segura-2B, Jake Lamb-3B, Nick Ahmed-SS, Wellington Castillo-C
Projected Rotation: Zack Greinke, Shelby Miller, Patrick Corbin, Rubby de la Rosa, Robbie Ray
Closer: Brad Ziegler
Projected Record: 81-81
4. Colorado Rockies: Ah, the Rockies. They have the opposite problem of the Diamondbacks. They've got a ton of bats, but no pitching. The hitting is a by-product of Coors Field, of course, by all of these guys have been All-Stars recently. Carlos Gonzalez and Nolan Arenado are studs, while I think Charlie Blackmon and D.J. LeMahieu are not all they're cracked up to be. One of their big additions was former Gold Glove winner Gerardo Parra in left field, who I think will be a good fit in Colorado. Last year, they got Jose Reyes at the trade deadline for Troy Tulowitzki, expecting him to be their leadoff hitter this season. Execpt Reyes is dealing with some legal troubles and won't be available until they're resolved. And who knows when that'll be? Their pitching is a big cause of concern, though. Behind veteran Jorge de la Rosa are a bunch of guys who'll have the challenge of keeping the ball in the park (at least enough for the Rockies to outscore the other team). The bullpen actually isn't that bad, with Chad Qualls and Boone Logan supporting new closer Jake McGee. Coloardo's problem isn't a lack of talent. It's being in the same division as the Giants and Dodgers. Their biggest competition will come from San Diego--in the battle to stay out of last place.
Projected Lineup: Gerardo Parra-LF, D.J. LeMahieu-2B, Carlos Gonzalez-RF, Nolan Arenado-3B, Charlie Blackmon-CF, Ben Paulsen-1B, Nick Hundley-C, Trevor Story-SS
Projected Rotation: Jorge de la Rosa, Chad Bettis, Tyler Chatwood, Jordan Lyles, Christian Bergman
Closer: Jake McGee
Projected Record: 72-90
5. San Diego Padres: The All-Star Game is at Petco Park this year. Sadly, that'll probably be the highlight of the Padres' season. Last year's overhaul in an attempt to be competitive didn't work, so this year they're taking a different approach. They traded Jedd Gyorko, one of their better young players, to St. Louis for center fielder Jon Jay and moved Wil Myers to first, where he'll hopefully stay healthy. They also have a new shortstop in Alexei Ramirez after deciding not to re-sign free agent Everth Cabrera. The Upton brothers have also been separated (which I think they'd even agree at this point is better for them). Justin left as a free agent and is now in Detroit. Will that turn the Artist Formerly Known as B.J. back into the player he was in Tampa instead of the one that was stealing money from the Braves? He did have a nice bounce back last year, his first in San Diego, though. Tyson Ross will actually be their Opening Day starter over James Shields, one of those big-name, big-money free agents they got last season. If there's anybody who needs a bounce-back it's Shields. He was a solid 13-7 in his first year in the National League, but had a 3.91 ERA. Except in the NL West, he couldn't go toe-to-toe with Kershaw and Bumgarner (you can throw Greinke in their now). So, I actually think dropping him to No. 2 in the rotation will help him. I actually don't think the Padres' rotation is that terrible. Ian Kennedy was a significant loss, though. In the bullpen, they've got Fernando Rodney, who goes back to his more-familiar closer role after doing a good job as a setup man for the Cubs after a trade with the Mariners last season.
Projected Lineup: Jon Jay-CF, Alexei Ramirez-SS, Matt Kemp-RF, Wil Myers-1B, Derek Norris-C, Melvin Upton Jr.-LF, Cory Spangenberg-2B, Yangervis Solarte-3B
Projected Rotation: Tyson Ross, James Shields, Andrew Cashner, Drew Pomeranz, Colin Rea
Closer: Fernando Rodney
Projected Record: 71-91
So, to sum everything up, here are my playoff teams in the National League:
East: Mets
Central: Cubs
West: Giants
Wild Card: Nationals vs. Dodgers
NL Champion: Giants
My World Series is the Giants vs. the Astros, and I'm sticking with the whole even-year thing. 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016. The Giants add another even-year championship to the collection.
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