Who's Next?

Just when we thought the Pac-12 was dead and buried, Washington State and Oregon State made their first move in rebuilding the conference by grabbing four of the strongest Mountain West schools as new Pac-12 members.  That gets the conference to six and they need at least two more to be recognized as an FBS conference, but you know more expansion is coming.  It's really just a question of who?

All credit to Washington State and Oregon State for keeping the Pac-12 alive.  They've seriously done more as a two-team conference than the 12-member league did during Larry Kliavkoff's entire failed tenure as commissioner.  Seriously, what did that guy do other than "negotiate" a terrible media rights deal, see 83 percent of the conference get poached by other leagues, and not do anything about it?  I don't blame Stanford and Cal for not wanting to stick it out on a sinking ship, but if the Pac-12 had actually had this kind of leadership months ago, they might not have felt the need to make the move to the ACC.  But I digress...

Pretty much as soon as UCLA and USC announced they were leaving for the Big Ten, I said the Pac-12 needed to immediately sweep up San Diego State.  They didn't, even though it was the obvious move (another questionable Kliavkoff decision).  And, had they done it, I seriously doubt the seismic shift that happened would've been nearly as drastic.  Now, San Diego State, the strongest all-around athletic program not already in a Power 4 conference, is finally joining the Pac-12 four years later than they should've.  (For the record, I also advocated for BYU in the Big 12 for years before it finally actually happened.)

Boise State is another great move that made just as much sense for the Pac-12 four years ago as it does now.  Had they been the second team to join along with San Diego State in 2022, that really would've solved a lot of the Pac-12's self-inflicted problems.  Anyway, Boise State and San Diego State are the two strongest Mountain West schools who would've held their own competitively in the old Pac-12.  In the new Pac-12, they'll thrive.

Also joining the Pac-12 are Colorado State and Fresno State.  While neither one is the caliber of San Diego State or Boise State, they were attractive targets who'd been on the expansion radar for a while.  Colorado State, in particular, is an exciting addition that has real potential.  Fresno State, meanwhile, isn't nearly the caliber of the other three, but maintains the conference's presence in Northern California, which is a must.

The four additions leaves the Pac-12 with six teams for the 2026-27 season.  Oregon State's Athletic Director did say that they would be "aggressive" and "look to move quickly" while pursuing other expansion candidates, however.  Will any of those teams come from the Mountain West, especially now that it looks like a reverse merger is off the table (I can't help but think this had a lot to do with why the football scheduling agreement wasn't renewed for next season, too)?  And how many teams will it be?

A new twist in all of this has come with the recent reports that Air Force is also considering leaving the Mountain West.  The Falcons are being courted by the American Athletic Conference, which is already home to Army and Navy's football teams.  As we've seen time and again, once a school and conference start talking, the move is pretty much a done deal (except for UConn and the Big 12).  So, if and when Air Force leaves, the Mountain West will also be looking to replenish its ranks, whether the new-look Pac-12 snags more of their members or not.

Should they go the Mountain West route, there are two other programs that seem like obvious fits.  The first is UNLV.  I'm actually surprised UNLV hasn't been included in any of these conversations.  They've got a quality athletic program and, more importantly, would give the conference a footing in Las Vegas.  The other is New Mexico, which is probably the top overall program of those remaining in the Mountain West.

There's also San Jose State, which provides strategic importance.  With no Stanford or Cal, there's no Bay Area team in the Pac-12.  San Jose State keeps that San Francisco market.  Plus, they've already got those rivalries with San Diego State and Fresno State.  While probably not on the same level competitively right now, it's easy to see San Jose State improving quickly with the proper financial investment (not to mention the increased rights fees you'd assume a Pac-12 TV contract would bring compared to the Mountain West's deal).

If you want to talk about obvious perfect fits for the Pac-#, though, there's one school that really stands out above the rest.  Hawaii.  They're the biggest fish out there, although it may sometimes feel like they're the white whale.  Hawaii is in the Mountain West for football and the Big West in everything else since the Big West is a California-based conference, which is easier for their travel back and forth to the mainland.  It could be worthwhile, though, to deal with a little extra travel if it means bringing in more from media rights and joining a conference with the Pac-12's history.  (And the name "Pac-12" still means something.)  And, frankly, the Pac-12 is the only "major" conference that makes any sense for Hawaii.

Or maybe they look beyond the Mountain West and Hawaii.  There are two American Athletic Conference schools that have jumped to the top of expansion wish lists for multiple leagues.  Tulane and Memphis.  Tulane gives you New Orleans.  That alone is enough to make them an attractive candidate, regardless of how good they are.  Memphis is a smaller TV market, but a majority of their teams are good and their basketball team shares an arena with an NBA team.  Reading the tea leaves, it sure seems like Tulane and Memphis will end up leaving the American for another conference.  It's really just a matter of which one.

Depending on how many more schools, the Pac-# wants to add, there are a few other strategic options who aren't at the same level as San Diego State or Boise State competitively, but that's not as important as where they're located.  Really, I'm talking about a Texas State, which gives you San Antonio, or North Texas, which gives you Dallas.  I can also see North Dakota State for its football team.  Or, even though these seem far less likely, somebody like Sacramento State, Portland State or Idaho (which would obviously be a natural rival for Boise State).

Of course, many of these schools will be potential targets for the Mountain West, too.  So, what the Pac-# ends up doing will have a direct impact on what the Mountain West does.  Either way, the number in Pac-# won't be eight.  They need to add at least two more, but they won't be stopping there.

While I think six might be pushing it, I can see them bringing in another four schools to get back to a 10-team league for 2026-27.  That way the Pac-10 can play a nine-game football schedule and double round robin basketball schedule.  As for who those additional four members will be?  I'm going with Hawaii, UNLV, New Mexico and Tulane.