NFL 2024 (Week 1)

Well, folks, we've reached that time of year again.  Football season.  A time when everyone thinks they're an expert and makes their weekly picks.  Including me.  That's right.  We're back with another season of weekly NFL picks.

For those of you who are new, I always make a pick for the Thursday night game, even though I don't usually post until the weekend.  It's generally only Week 1 and Thanksgiving when I include the Thursday (and Friday) game with the others.  Also, I don't give a crap what the spread is!  I pick the winner of the game.  Whether they cover the spread or they're a six-point favorite that "only" won by three, the win counts the same in the standings.  So, with that done, let's get things started...

Ravens at Chiefs: Kansas City-The season starts with a rematch of the AFC Championship Game.  It's a chance for the Ravens to get some measure of revenge, but they know that beating the Chiefs in the playoffs matters a lot more.  I think Kansas City will go into this game feeling like there's a bit of a monkey on their backs.  They know what's at stake for them this season.  No team has ever won three consecutive Super Bowls.  Beyond that, though, they just want to have a better showing than they did in last year's opener, when they lost to the Lions.

Packers vs Eagles: Green Bay-September having an extra Monday this year gives us the rare Friday night game, with the Packers and Eagles squaring off in Brazil.  Having the Week 1 international game is certainly a new twist, but they also don't have the time zone adjustment, so their body clocks will be relatively normal.  As for the two teams playing in the game, I'm interested to see if there are any lingering effects of how Philadelphia's 2023 campaign ended.  The Packers finished last season going the other way.  Will they start this season the way they finished the last?  All I know is, we've got a great matchup between two heavy-hitters.

Steelers at Falcons: Atlanta-Both teams will have a new quarterback making his team debut.  Atlanta made the big move to get Kirk Cousins, while Pittsburgh is banking on Russell Wilson no longer sucking.  Frankly, I'm shocked that he won the starting job, but I guess we'll find out if being in Denver was the reason.  Still, they're putting a lot of faith in him.  The Falcons are putting a lot of faith in Cousins, too.  Their faith should be rewarded.  In Week 1 at least.

Cardinals at Bills: Buffalo-Shout out to Jessica Pegula, the daughter of the Bills' owners who pulled off the upset of No. 1 Iga Swiatek to make the US Open semifinals!  Could she be lifting a trophy on Saturday, then seeing her hometown team start the season with a win on Sunday?  They're playing Arizona at home, so the Bills should do their part.

Titans at Bears: Chicago-Call me crazy, but I really think the Bears have turned a corner.  Do I think they're a playoff team?  No.  Do I think they're less bad?  Yes.  Although, any success they have this season will revolve around how well Caleb Williams adjusts to life in the NFL.  In that regard, giving him a home game against the Titans to start should provide him with a soft landing.

Patriots at Bengals: Cincinnati-For the first time since Pete Carroll in 1999, somebody other than Bill Belichick will be patrolling the Patriots' sidelines.  Jerod Mayo has his work cut out for him, too.  After that long period of sustained excellence, the bottom has really fallen out for that team.  The Bengals, meanwhile, were the only team in the AFC North to miss the playoffs last season, when they became the first last-place team to finish with a winning record.  The division will be just as tough this year, so they can't afford to falter in a game they should win.

Texans at Colts: Houston-Doesn't it seems like Houston and Indianapolis meet in Week 1 a lot?  It may just be me, but it really does feel that way.  Anyway, there's plenty to like about this young, exciting, good Texans team.  They might've been a little ahead of schedule last year, but nobody is sleeping on them this season.  It seems silly to call a Week 1 game a "must win," but if Houston wants to seize early control of the AFC South, getting a road division win right off the bat would be a good way to start.

Panthers at Saints: New Orleans-Things haven't been going well in Carolina over the past few seasons.  The Panthers traded up to take Bryce Young No. 1 overall last season, then were even worse and saw the Bears take Caleb Williams with the No. 1 pick that should've been theirs.  I don't see things getting much better this season, either.  It's a division game, so you know it'll be a grind.  I can't picture New Orleans losing it, though.

Vikings at Giants: Giants-Even though it feels like forever, it was just January 2023 when these two met in a playoff game.  A lot has changed since then.  Mainly, Minnesota has fallen off dramatically and the Giants regressed back to the mean and the reality that they played a tough schedule last year.  They've put their faith in Daniel Jones, although it likely won't last.  Getting a Week 1 home win will keep the critics quiet for at least a week, though.

Raiders at Chargers: Chargers-Jim Harbaugh's triumphant return to the NFL starts against a Raiders team that improved so much at the end of last season under Antonio Pierce that it earned him the full-time head job.  In order to keep it, he'll have to deliver.  That's what Chargers fans are expecting of Harbaugh, too, especially since he's already had NFL success with the 49ers before his run at Michigan.  The Chargers have made a ton of personnel changes and Justin Herbert isn't 100 percent.  I still like them to win for some reason, though.

Broncos at Seahawks: Seattle-It's probably safe to say that the Russell Wilson trade worked out far better for Seattle than it did for Denver.  Well, Wilson isn't involved in this Broncos-Seahawks game on either side.  For Denver, it must feel like an eternity since their last playoff appearance.  Even though the team has improved dramatically under Sean Payton, they still have one massive problem of playing in the AFC West.  Starting the season on the road in Seattle isn't a way to keep pace in that division.

Cowboys at Browns: Dallas-This certainly was an interesting choice for Tom Brady's first game as FOX's top analyst.  They both made the playoffs last season and have expectations to get back this year.  Those expectations are probably more realistic for the Cowboys than they are for the Browns, but this is a chance for both of them to make an early statement.  Look at what the Lions did in Week 1 last year.  I just think Dallas is a better team than Cleveland, though, so the Cowboys are the pick here.

Commanders at Buccaneers: Tampa Bay-After bouncing around to a bunch of different teams and different systems, Baker Mayfield may have found a home in Tampa.  More importantly, he's proven that he is a legitimate NFL starting quarterback.  Which is something Washington has spent quite a while looking for.  They used the No. 2 pick in the draft on Jayden Daniels, hoping he can be that guy.  Whether he is "that guy" or not, expect him to struggle for a few weeks out of the gate.

Rams at Lions: Detroit-That Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff trade is gonna go down as one of the best moves in the history of both these franchises.  Stafford already led the Rams to a Super Bowl title, and there's a really good chance that Goff could lead the Lions to one.  If this Sunday night opener is as good as their Wild Card Game in January, we could be in for a treat.  I really like that Detroit was selected for the spotlight, too.  It shows that the NFL knows this team is good.

Jets at 49ers: San Francisco-Last year, the Jets opened the Aaron Rodgers Era on Monday night and he didn't even make it through their first drive.  So, the NFL took a mulligan and doubled down on the Jets again.  We're gonna see them a lot in prime time over the first half of the season.  And, who knows?, maybe Rodgers will last more than a drive this time!  While I think the Jets are a potential playoff team, this is a tough opener.  The 49ers are better than them.