AFC 2024

How is it already football season?  It feels like the Chiefs just beat the 49ers to become the first back-to-back Super Bowl champion in two decades, but that was actually five months ago!  Now Kansas City has a chance to do something that's never been done in the Super Bowl era and hasn't been done in the NFL since Lombardi's Packers...win a third straight title.  And, frankly, they're still the best team in the AFC.  Which doesn't mean they won't have challengers.

One of the criticisms of the Chiefs during this run has been that they never had to win on the road in the playoffs.  Their only postseason road game prior to last season was Super Bowl LV, when they didn't score a touchdown in a loss to Tampa Bay.  They answered those skeptics last season, though, winning two road playoff games in Buffalo and Baltimore en route to their fourth AFC title in five years.

Buffalo and Baltimore are right at the top of the list of teams capable of dethroning the Chiefs in the AFC.  If anybody's gonna do it, the Bills and Ravens are probably the most likely candidates.  There are some others who have an outside chance, though.  Those teams include the Jets, the Bengals, the Texans and even Jim Harbaugh's Chargers, who should be a fascinating team to watch this season.

As for other possible playoff contenders, Miami, Pittsburgh and Cleveland were all there last season, and Jacksonville probably should've been.  I know I've listed virtually every team in the AFC here, but that was kind of the point.  Because while the AFC has three elite teams (Chiefs, Bills, Ravens), there are a bunch of teams that are very close to each other and, if all goes right, should be in the mix for the wild card berths.

AFC East: Let's start in the East, where the Bills are still the cream of the crop.  They had to battle last season, but they ended up putting together that great December to not only make the playoffs, but pass the Dolphins and win the division.  They've been the best team in the division since the Patriots' run of dominance ended, and that shouldn't change this season.  Buffalo's expectations are far loftier than making the playoffs, though.  They want to make their first Super Bowl since that incredible run of four in a row 30 years ago.

If Aaron Rodgers is healthy, the Jets are playoff contenders.  Even if his season again lasts only four plays, their elite defense will keep them in the conversation regardless.  The longest active playoff drought for any team in the four Major League men's professional sports could come to an end.  Miami led the division for much of the season last year, but fell off down the stretch and ended up having to settle for a wild card.  The Dolphins aren't as good as their record early last season indicated.  They'll do well to make it back to the playoffs.  As for New England, the Belichick Era is over and the Jerrod Mayo Era has begun.  What will that mean for the new-look Patriots, who figure to struggle either way?

AFC North: All four AFC North teams had winning records last season, with the Bengals finishing last and missing the playoffs due to their 1-5 division record.  On the flip side of that, Pittsburgh made the playoffs because of its 5-1 division mark in 2023.  Cleveland, meanwhile, came out of nowhere to earn the AFC's top wild card despite using like six different quarterbacks during the season.  So, to say the AFC North is up for grabs would be a massive understatement.  Which increases the significance of the division games.

While positions 2-4 in the AFC North are pretty much interchangeable, they should all be chasing Baltimore.  The Ravens are probably the team most capable of unseating the Chiefs.  They have to get out of the division first, though.  And in order to hold off their three challengers, the Ravens will need Lamar Jackson to stay healthy.  He's the biggest key to their success.  If anything happens and he's out for an extended period, they not only won't win the division, they won't make the playoffs at all!

AFC South: Oh, the AFC South!  The most unpredictable of all eight divisions!  Jacksonville won the division in 2022 and suddenly had expectations.  Jacksonville fell apart down the stretch, allowing the Texans to sneak in there and win the division (then win a playoff game!).  Now it's Houston that enters the season as the division favorites.  Does that mean they and the Jaguars will trade places again?

Indianapolis has had a very similar season like three years in a row.  The Colts are just good enough to stay in contention for the division title until Week 18, but end up out of the playoffs.  Expect that to happen again, but also for the Colts to be that annoying potential spoiler you don't want to face.  As for the Titans, it could be a struggle this season.  There among that handful of AFC teams a step below the playoff contenders.

AFC West: Kansas City's hold on the AFC West goes back even further than its hold on the conference as a whole.  When it's over, this run that the Chiefs are currently on could end up being very similar to the Patriots' two decades of dominance under Bill Belichick.  They may lose a division game or two (just as they did last season), but their stranglehold on the AFC West should continue.

What I'm curious about is how the other three AFC West teams will shake out.  The Chargers fired their coach after a 5-12 season and replaced him with Jim Harbaugh.  They've got basically an entirely new team outside of quarterback Justin Herbert, and they should be fascinating to watch.  Will Harbaugh make them a playoff team?  The same question could be asked of Denver.  Sean Payton got the Broncos to 8-9 last season, and the Russell Wilson experiment has mercifully come to an end.  Can they make their long-awaited playoff return?  And how will the Raiders fare in a full season under Antonio Pierce after playing so much better after he took over the role on an interim basis for the final few games of last season?

Ultimately, I think all four of last season's division winners will retain their positions.  Even with so many playoff contenders, they're simply the best team in each of their respective divisions.  The wild cards, though.  That's where I see some changes.  In fact, I have three entirely different wild card teams, including one that's been on quite a playoff drought.  The Jets, Bengals and Chargers.

And, while it would be so easy to take the chalk and say the Chiefs will win another AFC title and keep the chance for a Super Bowl three-peat alive, I'm not gonna do that.  I think Kansas City loses in the AFC Championship Game this time.  John Harbaugh's Baltimore Ravens are my pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.