NFC 2024

Prior to last season, the Detroit Lions had won a grand total of one playoff game in 60 years.  Then they came within 30 minutes of the Super Bowl.  And, dare I say it?, the Lions may be the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this season.  I don't think it's a stretch to say that, and I don't think it'll be a situation where the pressure of actually having expectations gets to them.  There were actually expectations on them last season, too, and they delivered, so there's no reason to think they can't again.

There are also expectations in San Francisco.  The 49ers have had quite a run of success over the past few seasons, but both times they've made the Super Bowl, they lost to the Chiefs (including that overtime thriller in February).  They know that their window is closing, though, so it's Lombardi Trophy or Bust for them. 

You've got to think that the pressure's also on in Dallas.  The Cowboys haven't reached the NFC Championship Game since 1996!  That's an eternity in Dallas.  And you know Jerry Jones can't be happy about how they've exited the playoffs in the last three seasons.  Last year's debacle against Green Bay was particularly embarrassing.  No coach's seat is hotter than Mike McCarthy's.  If the Cowboys don't end their nearly 30-year Super Bowl drought, he's likely gone.

So, that's three teams who expect to see themselves in New Orleans in February.  Obviously, only one of them can get there.  And there are plenty of other teams who'll have something to say about that, as well.  The Rams, Eagles and Packers were all playoff teams last season who figure to be in the mix again.  The NFC South was wide open last year and will be wide open again, but you've got to figure the Falcons' addition of Kirk Cousins could be the thing that puts them over the top in that division.

The NFC's three bottom-dwellers, meanwhile, have nowhere to go but up.  I don't think Arizona or Washington will be nearly as bad as last season, and the Panthers just had a lot of bad luck.  Carolina's record resulted in the Bears getting the No. 1 overall pick and taking USC quarterback Caleb Williams.  With him under center, Chicago figures to actually have some semblance of an offense this season, which could lead to a more respectable record.  As a result, I'm not placing the Bears in the "bottom-dweller" category.  I'm not even sure they'll finish last in the division.

NFC East: For much of the past two years, it's been the Cowboys and Eagles battling for NFC East supremacy.  Then, Philadelphia completely fell apart last December and capped the collapse with a wild card loss in Tampa.  Heading into this season, there's no question that Dallas is the top team in the division.  Although, the Eagles should still have enough to be in the wild card mix.  It will be interesting to see if they're still as effective on the ground and with their signature "tush push" without Jason Kelce, who will be excellent on TV!

After a playoff run in 2022, the Giants came back to Earth last season.  They decided to stick with Daniel Jones at quarterback, although this is a make-or-break year for him.  If Jones is healthy and productive, they can challenge for the playoffs.  If not, they're looking at double-digit losses.  Washington is also once again looking at double-digit losses.  The Commanders have a lot of work to do before we can truly consider them playoff contenders.

NFC North: Last season, the Lions rolled through the NFC North pretty much unchallenged.  That won't be the case this year.  The Packers caught fire in December, made the playoffs, upset Dallas and nearly pulled off another against San Francisco.  It didn't take Green Bay long to go right back to being "the Packers," and that figures to continue with Jordan Love now firmly established as an NFL starter.  The Lions are still better than them, but Green Bay will make Detroit work for it.

While it would be a stretch to say the Bears can make it three playoff teams out of the NFC North, I wouldn't be surprised if they're significantly improved this season.  It's funny how they had the No. 1 pick in 2023 and traded it to Carolina...only to end up with the No. 1 pick in 2024 that originally belonged to the Panthers!  If the Bears finally figure out a way to score points, they've already got the defense.  The Vikings' window appears to have closed.  Their battle will be with the Bears for last, not the Lions for first.

NFC South: Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl as a wild card team in 2020, and has won three straight division titles since then.  They could easily make it four straight.  Or they could easily end up missing the playoffs entirely.  So is life in the NFC South, where the teams are pretty evenly matched.  Although, I do think one stands above the others.  Atlanta.

It's been eight years since the Falcons' Super Bowl collapse and seven since they've made the playoffs (or even had a winning record).  Getting Kirk Cousins was just one of several moves they made this offseason to change that, and they really only need to go 10-7 to win the division, which I think they're plenty capable of.  The Saints can certainly sneak in there if either the Falcons or Bucs falters, but I don't see a wild card coming out of the NFC South.  As I said earlier, Carolina's really got nowhere to go but up.  All the way into the playoffs is a stretch, though.

NFC West: How much longer can the 49ers keep it going?  San Francisco is 25-9 with a Super Bowl appearance in the last two years and has been to three straight NFC Championship Games.  They've got all the pieces in place to make another run, too, but it won't be easy.  Because the Rams will be right on their heels.  They rebounded after missing the playoffs in 2022 to earn a wild card last year, and if anyone can wrestle the NFC West title away from San Francisco, it might be them.

Seattle's a very interesting team.  The Seahawks freed themselves of Russell Wilson (what a decision that turned out to be!), made the playoffs in 2022, then just missed a postseason return on a tiebreaker last season.  They'll probably finish in the 9-8 range again.  Which means they'll either just get in or just miss again.  As for the Cardinals, I have no idea!  They aren't good, but they aren't as bad as teams like the Panthers or Commanders, either.  And, in a division with three teams that are better than them, their chances of not finishing last are pretty low.

In the AFC, I have all four of last season's division champions repeating.  In the NFC, I don't.  I have the Falcons winning the South.  I do have all three wild cards from last season getting wild cards again, though, which is a big difference from what I've got in the AFC.  So, six of my seven NFC playoff teams are the same as in 2023, with Atlanta replacing Tampa Bay as the only exception.

Last season, experience played a factor in the NFC Championship Game.  That was one of the big reasons why the 49ers were able to dominate the second half the way they did.  The Lions learned a lot from that game, and they'll carry it over into this season.  More importantly, I think there'll be another key difference.  I have the Lions finishing with the best record in the conference, putting the NFC Championship Game in Detroit.  

Of the four teams that have never reached the Super Bowl, the Lions are the only one who's played in all 58 seasons of the Super Bowl era.  They won't make it 59.  That's right.  I have the Detroit Lions winning the NFC title and playing against the Ravens in Super Bowl LIX.  But, why stop there?  The Lions' last NFL Championship was in 1957.  That was 67 years ago!  This season, they'll capture their first Vince Lombardi Trophy.