Baseball Pre-Playoff Rankings

The situation regarding the Mets-Braves doubleheader that wrapped up the MLB season on Monday ultimately wasn't fair to anybody.  It wasn't fair to the Mets, who had to fly from Atlanta to Milwaukee, back to Atlanta, back to Milwaukee.  It wasn't fair to the Diamondbacks, who couldn't do anything but sit there and watch, knowing that their season was over unless whoever won the first game also won the second (despite having absolutely no incentive to do so).  And, while the Braves got to stay in Atlanta the whole time, they still had to play two games before getting on a plane and flying to San Diego to play the next day (I guess the silver lining there is that the Padres-Braves winner plays the Dodgers, so they'll at least get to stay in SoCal all week if they do win the Wild Card Series).

I get that it wasn't ideal and that it only came about because of the hurricane (as well as the Mets' decision to reschedule an April rainout during that series instead of on a mutual off day during the season).  And, yes, there was likely some gamesmanship involved in the Braves not wanting to play on Monday or adjust the start time on Wednesday.  But still, MLB had the authority to step in and move the series somewhere that wasn't impacted by the hurricane (for example, Texas) and chose not to.  They rescheduled it as a Monday doubleheader instead.

And there's something to be said about preserving the integrity of the 162-game schedule.   They let it be decided on the field and let the Diamondbacks still theoretically have a chance, even if it was completely out of their control.  It definitely could've been handled better, though.  Because the Mets and Braves have both been put at an incredible disadvantage heading into the playoffs.

As a result, I've got both teams ranked lower than I otherwise would in my pre-playoff rankings.  This year, instead of trying to pick my World Series winner by predicting the results of each series, I'm putting the teams in order from 1-12 (or 12-1, since I'm going in reverse order) based on what I think the likelihood of their winning the World Series is.  And, even though I know full well that getting that bye into the Division Series isn't necessarily an advantage under this new format, I'd still rather be in the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees or Guardians' position than that of the other eight teams.

12. Mets: Winning Game 1 of the doubleheader was huge because it meant they didn't have to use Luis Severino and were able to hold him for the opener of the Wild Card Series.  But they still had to use everyone else, so their bullpen was taxed to say the least.  And that could be the biggest factor heading into their series with a Brewers team they just played...and didn't have to go back-and-forth to Atlanta.

11. Brewers: With that being said, though, I don't see either the Mets or the Brewers beating the Phillies.  Milwaukee may be the best team in the NL Central, but they're far from the best team in the playoffs.  Not by a long shot.  They have a decent rotation and a solid bullpen, but, while it might be enough to beat the Mets, it's not enough to win the pennant.

10. Royals: Don't be surprised if this is the first of many playoff appearances for the Royals in the Bobby Witt Jr. Era.  Seeing Witt in the postseason will be great, though, and so will seeing Sal Perez get another shot in the spotlight.  I can actually see their rotation shutting down the Orioles' lineup (or, at the very least, outpitching Baltimore's starters).  It'll take a lot for them to get beyond the Division Series, though.

9. Tigers: Why do I have the Tigers rated above three other teams?  Two words: Tarik Skubal.  They were able to lineup the AL Cy Young frontrunner to pitch Game 1 against Houston, and if they can steal that game, winning the series isn't out of the question at all.  Can they go much beyond the Division Series?  Probably not.  But the fact that they have the best pitcher makes me think that first-round upset is possible.

8. Braves: Back spasms was the official reason, but being able to avoid using Chris Sale in the second game of the Mets doubleheader might've been a blessing in disguise.  Because now he's available to pitch against San Diego.  Getting into the playoffs was the biggest thing for a Braves team that's well-equipped to make a run like last year's Rangers.  Except having to use Raisel Iglesias twice on Monday puts an extra burden on their bullpen.  They beat the Padres, they can easily beat the Dodgers.  Beating the Padres is by no means a guarantee, though.

7. Orioles: Baltimore can outslug anybody in the playoffs.  I've seen it firsthand twice this season.  And they won the season series with the Yankees, so it's not crazy to see them playing in the ALCS.  They have to get by Kansas City first, though, and I can easily see them losing to the Royals.  The Orioles' pitching needs to keep up with their hitting.  If either side falters, they aren't going very far.

6. Padres: Who would've thought that trading their best player--Juan Soto--would set the Padres up to become a playoff team?  Heck, at midseason, there were probably very few people who thought they'd be a playoff team.  Yet here they are, hosting a Wild Card Series against a Braves team that had to fly cross country after playing a doubleheader.  They can easily beat Atlanta.  They can easily beat the Dodgers, too.

5. Guardians: Cleveland is good!  I'm not sure people realize how good.  And if the Guardians have the lead late, it's pretty much game over.  Before they can get the ball to the lights-out Emmanuel Clase, though, they need their starters to come through.  That's the biggest question mark surrounding the Guardians and why I can't put them any higher.  They're gonna hit.  There's no question about that.  But will that be enough, especially since they could very well be facing Houston in the Division Series?

4. Astros: It's October and it's the Astros.  Pick against them at your own peril.  Sure, this season's a little different in that they actually have to play the Wild Card Series and they won't have home field in the Division Series (against a very formidable Cleveland team).  But, still, they've been to seven straight ALCS for a reason.  The crazy thing is I can see them losing to the Tigers.  But I can also see them extending that streak to eight.

3. Yankees: Despite being terrible for a six-week stretch in July and August, the Yankees still earned the No. 1 seed in the AL and actually head into the playoffs fairly healthy.  Losing Anthony Rizzo hurts.  Obviously.  But the lineup is otherwise intact and good enough to absorb that loss.  The biggest difference between this Yankees team and Yankees teams in recent years (other than the fact that they now have the Judge-Soto combination) is the fact that they actually have a solid starting rotation.  That's what makes them formidable. 

2. Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani embarks on his first foray into October after another historic regular season.  And the Dodgers always have to be considered one of the favorites, especially after a 98-win campaign.  However, there are question marks, especially on the pitching staff.  Not to mention the fact that they've gotten upset in the Division Series by a division opponent in each of the last two years.  So, while it wouldn't be smart to count them out, picking them to win it all isn't exactly a safe bet, either.

1. Phillies: All season long, I've thought the Phillies were the best team in baseball.  Heading into the playoffs, I have no reason to move off of that stance.  They've got the playoff experience over the past two years, and I think they've got the best-equipped pitching staff for the October grind.  That lineup is obviously stacked, too.  Plus, you know they're motivated after coming so close in the last two years.  I know it's far from a guarantee, but I think the Phillies are in the best position to win the 2024 World Series.