2023 Picks, Week 14

Well, I finally did it.  I gave in and signed up for Amazon Prime.  It was kind of by accident since I got a 30-day free trial when I put in the shipping info for a Christmas present that I ordered, so I just said "screw it, why not?"  That was on Thursday, so I actually watched some of Thursday Night Football live as a result.  Which means I got to see the Pittsburgh Steelers make NFL history and lose to a 2-10 team for the second time in five days!  A truly impressive level of futility!

The Steelers aren't the only team trying to play themselves OUT of the playoffs.  Heading into Thanksgiving, the Vikings and Seahawks appeared to have the second and third NFC wild cards on lockdown.  Now they're in a four-way tie with the Packers and Rams (and Seattle's next two games aren't exactly easy).  There's also a four-way tie for the AFC wild cards at 7-5 (at least there was until the Steelers lost).  In other words, things are getting crazy.  Must be December.

Thursday Night: New England (Loss)

Buccaneers (5-7) at Falcons (6-6): Atlanta-While it hasn't been pretty, Atlanta has won two straight to take over first place in the NFC South and solidify that standing.  The Falcons are the best team in a weak division, which is enough to get you a home playoff game.  They've got a chance to really take control of the division by completing a season sweep of Tampa Bay.  A loss, however, makes the NFC South very, very interesting heading into the stretch run.

Lions (9-3) at Bears (4-8): Detroit-Chris Russo went on a hilarious rant about the NFL's insistence to show the Bears on national TV last week after that ridiculously awful Monday night game in Minnesota.  He was absolutely right!  And, as you know, I've been saying the same thing pretty much all season!  Funny thing is the Bears almost won in Detroit three weeks ago (and probably should've).  I'm curious to see what happens in the rematch.  I think the Lions actually show up before the middle of the fourth quarter this time.

Colts (7-5) at Bengals (6-6): Cincinnati-Are the Bengals going to make the playoffs?  Probably not.  Are they going to make life difficult for teams that might?  Absolutely!  Are they going to end up knocking somebody out by beating them?  Without a doubt!  That team could very well be Indianapolis.  In fact, a Bengals win here gives them the same record as the Colts and the head-to-head tiebreaker.  This AFC wild card situation could end up getting crazy!

Jaguars (8-4) at Browns (7-5): Jacksonville-Jacksonville was in prime position to take over the top spot in the AFC on Monday night.  Instead, they lost to the Bengals and are currently No. 4.  Their current playoff opponent?  Cleveland.  And it just so happens, that's who they're playing this week!  How the Browns are currently the top AFC wild card team is beyond me.  But, hey, they are!  (All three AFC wild cards are confusing, actually.)  Is this a playoff preview?

Panthers (1-11) at Saints (5-7): New Orleans-A few weeks ago, there was a possibility that we'd have a three-way tie atop the NFC South.  That possibility again exists this week.  The Saints don't have any of the tiebreakers on anybody, so they can't move into a playoff position even if they do their part by beating the Panthers.  If they can't do that, especially at home, they not only don't deserve to make the playoffs, they'll have virtually no chance of getting there.

Texans (7-5) at Jets (4-8): Houston-Until the Packers decided to become relevant, it looked like a good possibility that this game might get flexed into Monday night.  Instead, Texans-Jets stays on Sunday afternoon, and Houston may end up going the entire season without appearing in primetime.  Too bad.  Because C.J. Stroud is certainly worth watching!  America will at least get to see him in the playoffs.  The Texans moved into a spot with the Steelers loss, and their chances of getting there will look that much better after they move to 8-5.

Rams (6-6) at Ravens (9-3): Baltimore-Nobody's talking about the Ravens, but they might just be the best team in the AFC.  Baltimore's defense, especially, is outstanding.  They're seriously the most unheralded 9-3 team.  Which is just fine with them.  Because they know they need to keep winning to stay ahead of their division rivals, who are all in the wild card mix.  The Rams have gotten themselves into the NFC wild card race with three straight wins, but a cross country trip to face that Ravens defense may be a bit much to ask.

Vikings (6-6) at Raiders (5-7): Las Vegas-Last season, the Vikings went 13-4 on the strength of their ridiculous record in one-score games.  Their record in one-score games this season is also ridiculous.  On the other side.  They've reverted to the mean big time.  Problem is, reverting to the mean has resulted in some losses to teams they should beat, including that 12-10 display against the Bears they subjected America to two weeks ago.  They lost to Denver by one and Chicago by two.  Does that mean they lose to the Raiders by three?

Seahawks (6-6) at 49ers (9-3): San Francisco-With a win and a Raiders win, San Francisco can officially become the first team to clinch a playoff spot.  Then they'll sit around, watch the Sunday night game and know they'll move into the No. 1 seed in the NFC if the Cowboys win.  And to think, the first time they played the Seahawks on Thanksgiving night, it was a battle for first place.  Now, Seattle is on the outside looking in and faced with falling below .500.

Bills (6-6) at Chiefs (8-4): Kansas City-Let's call a spade a spade.  That was a blatant pass interference the officials missed at the end of the Chiefs-Packers game.  That aside, Kansas City never should've been in that position.  The Chiefs simply aren't as good this season as they've been over the past several years.  Neither is Buffalo.  And the Bills have put themselves in a precarious position by losing some games they should've won.  With road games against Kansas City and Dallas the next two weeks, it's time for them to put up or shut up.  The Chiefs will all but eliminate them with a win here.

Broncos (6-6) at Chargers (5-7): Denver-Denver's winning streak came to an end last week in Houston, but the Broncos are still very much a player in the AFC wild card race.  This is almost an elimination game for both teams, especially the Chargers.  Lose here, and they have to win out just to get to 9-8, which still might not be enough.  Unfortunately, I think that's the exact situation they'll find themselves in.  Denver rebounds from the loss to the Texans with a win at SoFi.

Eagles (10-2) at Cowboys (9-3): Dallas-It's crazy how the Eagles could've essentially locked up the NFC's No. 1 seed last week and are now potentially looking at dropping to No. 5 with a loss in Dallas.  So, yeah, this is a big game.  It's also a chance for Dallas to make a statement and show they belong in the discussion.  The Cowboys have a tendency to lose every time they play a quality opponent.  A loss here all but guarantees them a visit to the NFC South champion on Wild Card Weekend.  Instead, I think they take over first place, at least temporarily.

Titans (4-8) at Dolphins (9-3): Miami-Miami is currently the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  Pretty remarkable when you consider the Dolphins are 1-3 against teams that are currently .500 or better.  But you can only play the teams on your schedule, and they're 8-0 against teams they should beat.  The Titans are one of those teams.  If they win their next two, they can lock up the AFC East before they get Dallas and Baltimore back-to-back.  So, that's plenty of incentive right there.

Packers (6-6) at Giants (4-8): Green Bay-Somehow, the Green Bay Packers, who at one point were 3-6, are sitting in playoff position in Week 14.  And, as a result of their sudden rise to relevance, their game against the Giants didn't become the first ever to be flexed out of Monday night.  There's no reason to think Green Bay won't keep rolling.  They make it four in a row and suddenly, as crazy as it sounded a month ago, their playoff chances look very real.

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 8-5
Overall: 122-72