2023 NFL Picks, Week 16

You know the NBA has to absolutely love it that the NFL scheduled a tripleheader on Christmas!  It's definitely not the NBA's holiday anymore!  Although, the NFL will only play on Christmas when it's an actual NFL gameday, so there won't be any Christmas games next year, when it falls on a Wednesday.  That'll likely be the only time for a while when there are no NFL games on Christmas.

Thursday Night: Rams (Win)

Bengals (8-6) at Steelers (7-7): Pittsburgh-Pittsburgh has spent the last few weeks playing itself out of the playoffs.  Cincinnati has spent the last few weeks playing itself in.  So, that means this one should be easy, right?  Wrong!  A familiar foe might be just what the Steelers need if they're gonna bounce back and give themselves a shot.  A loss here, they're done.  They'll play with an actual sense of urgency as a result.

Bills (8-6) at Chargers (5-9): Chargers-While the fact that this game is a Peacock exclusive is dumb, the fact that they're gonna have a commercial-free fourth quarter is awesome!  That's something they could only try on Peacock, and it'll be interesting to see what the response to it is.  As for the game itself, the Chargers wasted no time canning their head coach and GM after giving up 63 points to the Raiders last week.  The Bills, meanwhile, have gotten their groove back and will be a very dangerous team in the playoffs if they get there.  Not only can they get there, they've still got a very realistic shot at winning the AFC East!  They have to win this one first, though.

Colts (8-6) at Falcons (6-8): Indianapolis-Shane Steichen really deserves strong consideration for Coach of the Year.  Nobody expected much from the Colts this season, but he's led them to five wins in their last six games, which has moved them into a tie for the AFC South lead.  Not only are the playoffs a real possibility, they could actually win the division!  I thought the same thing about Atlanta a few weeks ago, but the Falcons have dropped two straight to give away that position, including a last-second 9-7 loss in Carolina last week.  This one will really turn the NFC South into a two-team race between Tampa Bay and New Orleans.

Seahawks (7-7) at Titans (5-9): Seattle-That win over the Eagles on Monday night was absolutely HUGE for the Seahawks!  At 6-8, Seattle would've been essentially out of it.  At 7-7, they're very much alive, and that brutal stretch is finally over.  Of course, they'll throw that all away if they go into Nashville and lose to the Titans.  That really depends on whether Drew Lock can follow up his outstanding game against Philadelphia with another solid performance.

Lions (10-4) at Vikings (7-7): Detroit-Detroit is thisclose to its first division title in 32 years.  The Lions need just one win in their final three games to clinch the NFC North...and two of those games are against the second-place Vikings.  You know they want to get it done this week, though, because their middle game is at Dallas and you know they don't want this coming down to a winner-take-all Week 18 contest at Ford Field.  Two of their losses this season are to their other two conference opponents, which will certainly be on their minds.  That division carat will either keep them focused and they'll blow the Vikings out or they'll feel the pressure and play like crap.  I'll go with Option 1.

Commanders (4-10) at Jets (5-9): Jets-Breaking news: Aaron Rodgers not only won't be activated this season, he admitted that his fantasy timetable was "overly optimistic."  So, wait, he actually admitted that you need the ability to walk in order to play football, and it takes more than four months to be able to walk again after tearing your Achilles?!  Shocking!  It'll actually be Trevor Semien under center for the Jets since Zach Wilson is out, too.  Regardless of who's playing quarterback, a home game against Washington should be a win.

Packers (6-8) at Panthers (2-12): Green Bay-Two weeks ago, the Packers were riding a three-game winning streak that had moved them into the 7-seed in the NFC.  Since then, they've lost two games they should've won against the Giants and Bucs, which has them now sitting two games under .500 with three to play.  If they want any chance at all to sneak back into a playoff position, beating the Panthers is absolutely imperative.

Browns (9-5) at Texans (8-6): Houston-Cleveland is currently the top AFC wild card and has eight different playoff-clinching scenarios this week (all of which involve multiple other teams losing).  Of course, all of those scenarios also involve a Browns win, which is by no means a guarantee.  That's because the Texans are legitimate playoff contenders themselves.  They'll actually move ahead of Cleveland with a victory (and they could even overtake the Jaguars and Colts for sole possession of first place).

Jaguars (8-6) at Buccaneers (7-7): Jacksonville-There are three games this weekend where two first-place teams face each other.  The one in Florida is perhaps the most crucial, since the Bucs and Jaguars both most likely won't get a wild card.  Tampa Bay has won three straight, including a huge December road win in Lambeau last week, and, thanks to the Saints loss, is in sole possession of first place at the moment.  The Jaguars, meanwhile, have dropped three straight to fall from 8-3 to 8-6 and into a three-way tie.  They need a win big time to get back on track.  Whether they get it or not really depends on Trevor Lawrence passing concussion protocol and starting.  If he does, go with Jacksonville.

Cardinals (3-11) at Bears (5-9): Chicago-For all of the yummy matchups involving playoff contenders this week, there's a Jets-Commanders and a Cardinals-Bears.  Although, to Chicago's credit, they're not nearly as bad as they were early in the season.  This is a team that started 1-5 and is 4-4 since.  Or, to extrapolate it out even further, they're 3-2 over their last five games.  The Cardinals, meanwhile, give up a lot of points.

Cowboys (10-4) at Dolphins (10-4): Dallas-This is one of the games of the week.  Miami clinches a playoff berth with a win, but has a brutal remaining schedule.  After the Cowboys, they go to Baltimore before ending the season against Buffalo.  The Cowboys are already in, so they don't have to worry about that, but they'll be battling the Eagles right down to the finish.  So, they both need a win here for very different reasons. They also both have something to prove--the Cowboys that they can win on the road, the Dolphins that they can beat a good team.

Patriots (3-11) at Broncos (7-7): Denver-Sunday Night Football gives way to "It's a Wonderful Life" on Christmas Eve, so Broncos-Patriots gets shifted to NFL Network.  It's Denver's second NFL Network game in a row after last week's Saturday night showdown in Detroit.  They need this one to go better if they want to have any hope at sneaking into a wild card spot.  Especially since the other teams in the mix are playing each other.  They lose to New England, the best they can finish is 9-8, and that's probably not gonna do it.

Raiders (6-8) at Chiefs (9-5): Kansas City-Guys, I'm concerned about Donna Kelce!  Where's she gonna spend Christmas?!  The Chiefs and Eagles are both home!  Although, I'm sure we can rest assured that Taylor will be in Kansas City.  And Travis will get her something she can't put under the tree.  A Chiefs win and another division title.  They haven't been their usual dominant selves by any means this season.  The end result, however, will be the same.  An AFC West crown and a home playoff game.

Giants (5-9) at Eagles (10-4): Philadelphia-Even after two straight losses, Philadelphia still controlled the NFC East going into their Monday night game in Seattle...especially after Dallas lost.  So, what did the Eagles do?  Lost to the Seahawks and lost their conference-record tiebreaker.  As a result, they're still the 5-seed with three games left.  The good news for them is that two of those three games are against the Giants, with a matchup against Arizona sandwiched in between.  That's a much easier remaining schedule than the Cowboys.

Ravens (11-3) at 49ers (11-3): San Francisco-Sometimes, when the NFL makes the schedule in April, they luck into the matchup they scheduled for Christmas night featuring the No. 1 seed in the AFC against the No. 1 seed in the NFC.  Possible Super Bowl preview?  It very well could be.  Because these are the two best teams in their respective conferences.  The Ravens are the only AFC team that's already clinched, and they can clinch the division if they win and the Browns lose.  San Francisco, meanwhile, has already won the NFC West and can theoretically wrap up the No. 1 seed as early as this week.  They'll do their part, but the other things they need to happen for that won't.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 140-85