2023 NFL Picks, Week 17

It's crazy how interconnected the final two weeks of the NFL season are this year.  So many games this week impact what could happen in another next week.  Or they might not, depending on what happens this week.  And we could end up having all but like three games next week (sorry, Jets-Patriots) that matter for at least one team.  I've never seen anything like it before!  But first, we need this week to play out before we can worry about the Week 18 schedule (my bet for Sunday night: Bills-Dolphins).

Thursday Night: Cleveland (Win)

Lions (11-4) at Cowboys (10-5): Dallas-Dallas is two completely different teams.  The Cowboys are unbeaten at home, 3-5 on the road.  Unfortunately for them, their losses in Buffalo and Miami means it looks like they're going on the road in the playoffs.  The Lions, however, will NOT be going on the road.  At least for the wild card game.  Detroit clinched its first division title in 30 years last week, and I'm glad the Lions got that out of the way so that they didn't have the pressure of not having clinched yet hanging over them heading into Week 18.  As it is, next week will be meaningless for them since they'll already have the 3-seed locked up.

Patriots (4-11) at Bills (9-6): Buffalo-What a turnaround it's been for the Buffalo Bills!  They were 5-5 after a couple really bad losses.  They're 4-1 since and have a very realistic chance of winning the division.  They're also this week's team that has a ridiculous number of potential clinching scenarios (nine of which involve a Bills tie).  One of those bad losses earlier this season was to the Patriots, so there's no chance the Bills will be taking this game lightly.  Losing the first game might actually be a good thing heading into this one, though.  Because you know they'll be ready to play.

Falcons (7-8) at Bears (6-9): Atlanta-Atlanta's in a very interesting position.  The Falcons could go into their game with the Saints next week with everything at stake.  Or they could go into it eliminated from the postseason entirely.  The only part they can control is their matchup with a Bears team that has really turned it on in the second half and doubled last year's win total (yet, still has the No. 1 pick in the 2024 Draft thanks to that trade with Carolina).  Call me crazy, but I like the Falcons in this one, if only to keep the possibility of that crazy scenario alive.

Raiders (7-8) at Colts (8-7): Indianapolis-Like the Falcons-Bears game, this one matches a team that needs a victory to keep its playoff hopes alive against an opponent that has been playing some really good football of late.  The Raiders are a very different team under Antonio Pierce, who might've earned himself the job full-time by putting coal in the Chiefs' stocking.  This will be a dogfight.  But I do think the Colts will do enough to hang on to their 7-seed heading into the season finale.

Rams (8-7) at Giants (5-10): Rams-After following up their Super Bowl title by going 5-12 last season, the Rams are on the brink of getting back to the playoffs.  They'll actually clinch a spot with a win and a Seahawks loss this week.  Even if Seattle wins, the Rams will almost assuredly guarantee themselves a place with a victory over the Giants.  Their only loss since their bye week came in overtime in Baltimore, so the Rams will have definitely earned that playoff berth, too.

Cardinals (3-12) at Eagles (11-4): Philadelphia-While I don't want to say they completely got their mojo back (they were playing the Giants, after all), the Eagles took care of business on Christmas and moved back into first place as a result.  And now, thanks to the 49ers' loss, the No. 1 seed is back in play, too.  One of the reasons they have the division lead is because of Arizona's win over Dallas.  They'll avoid repeating the Cowboys' result against the Cardinals and stay on track to become the first back-to-back NFC East champion since they won four in a row from 2001-04.

Saints (7-8) at Buccaneers (8-7): Tampa Bay-A part of me wants New Orleans to win just so we can have that ridiculous scenario where it's a three-way tie at 8-8 heading into next week (with the Saints-Falcons winner not even guaranteed to make the playoffs).  That does seem unlikely, though.  Because Tampa Bay has been playing some awfully good football.  The Bucs have gone from 4-7 to 8-7 and can clinch the division with a win.  Which, of course, likely means a wild card rematch with Dallas.

49ers (11-4) at Commanders (4-11): San Francisco-Things in the NFC sure got a whole lot more interesting on Christmas night, didn't they?  The matchup between No. 1 seeds was no contest, as the 49ers were completely outplayed by the Ravens.  Fortunately for them, they still have the inside track to homefield and the bye.  They have the same record as the Eagles now, though, so they really can't afford a slip up against a Commanders team they should take care of pretty easily.

Panthers (2-13) at Jaguars (8-7): Jacksonville-Jacksonville went from winning the AFC South easily to having a must-win in each of its final two games.  But, that's what happens when you go on a four-game losing streak in December.  Although, in fairness, all four of those opponents were better than or at least as good as the Jaguars.  The Panthers are not (even if they've been playing significantly better since the coaching change).  Look for Jacksonville to end the losing streak and once again play for the division title in Week 18.

Dolphins (11-4) at Ravens (12-3): Baltimore-This game could very well determine the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  If the Ravens win, they clinch and set up Miami vs. Buffalo for the AFC East next week.  If the Dolphins win, they clinch the East and have the head-to-head win over Baltimore.  It really is kind of puzzling that they left it as a 1:00 kickoff (they evidently didn't want to have the Ravens play in primetime three weeks in a row).  After what the Ravens did on Christmas night, is there any reason to doubt they win this one?

Titans (5-10) at Texans (8-7): Houston-If not for the already playoff-bound Browns, Houston would be an easy call as the most surprising team in the AFC this season.  Two weeks ago, they needed a field goal on the last play of overtime to avoid a tie against the Titans in Nashville.  If not for that kick, they wouldn't be in this position.  As it is, they get a win in the rematch, they set up what could very well be a winner-take-all game (likely on Saturday night) in Indianapolis next week.

Steelers (8-7) at Seahawks (8-7): Pittsburgh-Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season.  He needs just one win in his last two games to avoid his first, but that won't be easy with at Seattle at Baltimore to wrap up the season.  Pittsburgh, of course, needs a win to keep pace in that crowded AFC playoff race.  They're currently behind the Colts and Texans, who play each other next week, and have the head-to-head sweep of Cincinnati.  Call me crazy, but I think they go into Seattle and win.  Which puts the Seahawks into a must-win scenario in Week 18 against Arizona.

Chargers (5-10) at Broncos (7-8): Denver-Denver did all that work to get into the playoff mix, then essentially threw that chance away with a Christmas Eve loss to the Patriots.  And they'll be taking on the Chargers with Jarret Stidham, not Russell Wilson, under center.  Whether it's for performance reasons on because of the contract issue that Wilson just revealed is something on the team knows, but hopefully it's not a distraction heading into a must-win game.  And they really need this one because next week in Las Vegas is far from a guarantee.

Bengals (8-7) at Chiefs (9-6): Kansas City-Well, the Chiefs sure know how to keep themselves the topic of conversation, don't they?  Kansas City absolutely laid an egg on Christmas and sure doesn't look anything like a championship team.  They haven't even clinched the AFC West yet, which they can do this week in their home finale against a Bengals squad that's been a perpetual thorn in their side.  Cincinnati, by the way, has one of the strangest stats in the NFL.  The Bengals are 0-5 against the AFC North and 8-2 against every other division.  Make that 8-3.

Packers (7-8) at Vikings (7-8): Green Bay-The final game of 2023 (and the reason why there's no Miley Cyrus New Year's Eve special) is essentially an elimination game for the NFC North rivals.  They're going in completely opposite directions, though.  After Week 10, the Vikings were 6-4 and the Packers were 3-6.  Since then, Minnesota's 1-4 and Green Bay's 4-2.  And it'll be the Packers (potentially) playing for a playoff berth next week.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 149-92