2023 Picks, Week 13

Now that we've hit December and the playoff picture is coming more into focus, I think it's a safe bet to say some of the teams currently in playoff position weren't exactly who we were expecting to be there.  Indianapolis, Houston and Denver are all tied for the last spot in the AFC.  Buffalo and Cincinnati are currently out.  And, the Vikings and Seahawks have come back to the pack, so suddenly all of the 5-6 NFC teams are still in the mix.

We can see the first playoff spot officially clinched this week, though.  The Eagles win and the right teams lose, Philadelphia's in.  I mean, it's really just a matter of time, and they've got a tough one in an NFC Championship Game rematch with San Francisco, but clinching a playoff spot is obviously Step 1.

Thursday Night: Dallas (Win)

Colts (6-5) at Titans (4-7): Indianapolis-Raise your hand if you had Indianapolis as the final AFC playoff team at the beginning of December.  This is a team that won four games last season.  Now, they've got a chance to win their fourth straight.  It's been quite a turnaround!  It's also been quite a turnaround in Tennessee.  For different reasons.  Yes, they won last week, but they were playing Carolina.

Chargers (4-7) at Patriots (2-9): Chargers-This season has been a disaster in New England.  Everybody knows that.  Things haven't really gone much better for the Chargers, though.  This was a playoff team last season, but now they've lost three straight and are sitting in last place.  If they want to return to the postseason, they essentially need to win out (and get some help).  Playing the Patriots is a good start.

Lions (8-3) at Saints (5-6): Detroit-It's crazy.  The Lions simply can't win on Thanksgiving.  Even when they're the better team (like this year), they end up getting outplayed.  Although, if we're being honest, they were lucky to beat the Bears.  They very easily could've been heading to New Orleans on a two-game losing streak.  As it is, they're still in good shape.  They'll have at least a two-game lead in the NFC North, three if they win.

Falcons (5-6) at Jets (4-7): Atlanta-Let me just start by saying it's absolutely ridiculous Aaron Rodgers was cleared to return to practice barely three months after tearing his Achilles.  I get wanting to help your new team, but he shouldn't even be thinking about playing football that soon after major surgery!  (This is a guy who refused to get a COVID vaccine, mind you.)  And, it's not like him coming back would make any difference.  The Jets aren't going anywhere.  The Falcons, on the other hand, have taken over first place in the NFC South and can now move to .500.

Cardinals (2-10) at Steelers (7-4): Pittsburgh-The Steelers have struggled offensively all year.  You'd never know it by their record, but they haven't scored more than 26 points in a game this season.  Which obviously speaks volumes about their defense.  Against Arizona, they won't even need 26 points.  I don't see the Cardinals topping 17, so anything more than that should be fine.

Dolphins (8-3) at Commanders (4-8): Miami-Baltimore is finally on its bye week, so that half-game lead atop the AFC will be gone.  In fact, it's entirely possible that all four AFC division leaders will have the same record with five games left.  Of course, that would require the Dolphins, Jaguars and Chiefs all winning.  Miami should do its part.  The Dolphins have done a great job this season of beating the teams they should beat.  Washington is one of those teams.

Broncos (6-5) at Texans (6-5): Denver-Who would've figured Denver vs. Houston would be a game with huge playoff implications, especially with the way the Broncos started the season?  I don't want to say this is effectively an elimination game, but it's close.  That AFC wild card race is so tight that neither team can afford a loss.  Certainly not one that gives their opponent the head-to-head tiebreaker.  That's exactly what'll have to happen, of course, and I think the Broncos keep rolling.

Panthers (1-10) at Buccaneers (4-7): Tampa Bay-A coaching change obviously wasn't enough to kick Carolina's offense into gear.  The Panthers scored just 10 points last week in a loss to the Titans that dropped them to 1-10.  Certainly not what they envisioned when they traded for the No. 1 pick.  That was the first of three straight road games for Carolina.  The second takes them to Tampa Bay, which just finished a two-game trip of its own.  Being back home should help get the Bucs back on track.

Browns (7-4) at Rams (5-6): Rams-If they can get the win here, I actually think the Rams have a decent chance at contending for one of the two available NFC wild cards.  If they don't, it'll be close to impossible.  They'd have to win out to finish 10-7, and have you seen their remaining schedule?  Which gives them a sense of urgency heading into this one.  They'll play like it and overtake Seattle for second place in the process.

49ers (8-3) at Eagles (10-1): Philadelphia-Whether they get the help they need or not, the Eagles will essentially clinch the NFC's No. 1 seed for the second straight year with a win here.  They'd be three up on San Francisco with five to go and hold the tiebreaker (frankly, there's a better chance Dallas will catch them in the East).  It'll be more competitive than the NFC Championship Game was, but the result should be the same.

Chiefs (8-3) at Packers (5-6): Kansas City-Suddenly, the Packers are very much in it.  Green Bay started 3-5, but has won three out of four and is now only a half-game out of a wild card spot.  So, it's not as crazy to envision them in the playoffs as it was a month ago.  Their remaining schedule is actually somewhat favorable, too.  After this week.  They'll give the Chiefs a game, but Kansas City will pull it out.

Bengals (5-6) at Jaguars (8-3): Jacksonville-Our first-ever Monday night flex is coming up in a couple weeks, and this game is an example why they wanted to add that option.  On paper, it was a great matchup.  The Bengals and Jaguars both won their division last season and figured to be strong contenders again.  Plus, they both have dynamic quarterbacks in Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence.  But, of course, Burrow got hurt and the Bengals have stumbled.  As a result, it's not as compelling a game anymore.  The Jaguars can complete the division-leading 9-3 quartet.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 12-4
Overall: 115-66