2023 NFL Picks, Week 15

Looking at this week's playoff scenarios is hilarious!  There are so many teams tied or in the mix for the wild cards in each conference that the four teams with a chance to clinch (Baltimore, Dallas, Philadelphia and Detroit) all have at least nine different scenarios, most of which involve the results of multiple games.  The only things that are straightforward are the Cowboys and Eagles are both in with a win, and the 49ers clinch the NFC West with a win.  The rest are just confusing!

Thursday Night: Chargers (Loss...yeah, I really missed the mark on this one!)

Vikings (7-6) at Bengals (7-6): Cincinnati-Last season, they gave Minnesota the early game in the Saturday tripleheader and they blew that massive lead before beating Indianapolis in overtime.  This year, they go to Cincinnati to face a Bengals team that's suddenly very relevant in the AFC playoff race.  Nobody seems to want to make the playoffs in the NFC, so the Vikings are holding on to the 6-seed.  They haven't played the Lions yet, though, so even their spot is precarious.  We'll see how precarious after they fall to 7-7.

Steelers (7-6) at Colts (7-6): Indianapolis-As it stands right now, these two are the No. 6 and 7 seeds in the AFC.  So, to say this is an important matchup would be an understatement.  Not only does the winner go ahead by a game, they'll also own the tiebreaker over the other.  Of course, Pittsburgh wouldn't be in this position if not for those absolutely miserable performances against Arizona and New England.  They've had a week and a half to lick their wounds, but is that enough time when they're traveling to face a motivated Colts team?

Broncos (7-6) at Lions (9-4): Detroit-Are the Lions good or not?  I'm not completely sure!  They sure haven't looked like a playoff team in the past few weeks, but is that simply a product of playing division rivals who are very familiar with them?  They're one of the teams that can clinch this week, though, and it just seems inevitable that they will (especially since they haven't played second-place Minnesota yet).  Which isn't to say they'll have an easy time against the Broncos.  

Bears (5-8) at Browns (8-5): Cleveland-Give the Browns credit.  They been able to stay out of that jumbled mess simply by winning.  At 8-5, they're the top AFC wild card and a game ahead of that six-way tie.  Of course, a loss somewhere along the way and all that changes.  It's a good thing, then, that they've got the Bears this week.  Chicago has played spoiler for two of its division rivals over the past two weeks, but it's not exactly like either of those performances was particularly inspiring.

Buccaneers (6-7) at Packers (6-7): Green Bay-Two 6-7 teams that are currently in playoff position.  Gotta love the NFL in 2023, don't you?  The Packers held on to the 7-seed despite their out-of-nowhere loss to the Giants, while Tampa Bay moved into the 4-seed with that win over Atlanta that gave them, at least for the moment, the NFC South tiebreaker.  We all know about their history in cold-weather games, though, and it's Lambeau Field in December.  That alone is enough of a reason for me to go with the Packers.

Texans (7-6) at Titans (5-8): Houston-How do you lose a game 30-6 when it was 0-0 at halftime?  That loss to the Jets is even more painful because of what it did to Houston's playoff positioning.  (The Texans went from in to out.)  The Titans, meanwhile, pulled out that miracle win in Miami and aren't dead yet.  Sure, they need to win out to have any chance, but there's still a chance.  It might be gone after the Texans come in and get the win, though.

Jets (5-8) at Dolphins (9-4): Miami-What happened to the Dolphins on Monday night?  It's hard to even try to explain!  Anyway, they all but eliminated themselves for the 1-seed with that loss to the Titans, and their hold on the AFC East isn't as secure as it probably should be.  Their final three games aren't easy, either (Dallas, Baltimore, Buffalo), so they can't afford a slip-up against the Jets.  They get a win here, though, and they'll all but clinch.

Chiefs (8-5) at Patriots (3-10): Kansas City-Congratulations to the Chiefs and Patriots on being the first teams ever flexed out of Monday night!  You can see why it was, too.  This season has been a disaster in New England.  So much so that Bill Belichick is reportedly on his way out.  The Chiefs, meanwhile, not only haven't been their dominant selves, they have a very serious problem with drops.  They've dropped two straight, three out of four and four out of six.  Yet, they still lead the AFC West.

Giants (5-8) at Saints (6-7): New Orleans-Even though they're currently No. 3 in that three-way tie atop the NFC South, the Saints have a very realistic path to the playoffs.  In order to follow that path, though, they have to beat the Giants at home.  There's really no way around that.  They saw what happened to the Packers last week, so they must be ready for the growing legend of Tommy DeVito (who's basically every stereotypical Italian guy from New Jersey you've ever known).  The Giants have suddenly won three straight with DeVito under center.  Alas, traveling to New Orleans is a much different assignment than two home games and a trip to Washington.

Falcons (6-7) at Panthers (1-12): Atlanta-If you think the NFC wild card standings are confusing, try taking a look at the NFC South.  The Falcons are currently behind the Bucs, but will regain the division lead with a win in Carolina (regardless of what Tampa Bay and New Orleans do).  The Panthers have only played five home games, so they've got a chance to build some momentum for next year with three of their last four at home.  It's the exact opposite for the Falcons, who'll need to get some road wins down the stretch if they want to host Dallas/Philadelphia on Wild Card Weekend.

Commanders (4-9) at Rams (6-7): Rams-Don't be surprised if the LA Rams sneak into the playoffs.  They've got a big one on Thursday night against the Saints, but they should go into it at 7-7 after beating the Commanders.  Washington mercifully finally had its bye last week.  In the two games prior, the Commanders gave up 45 points in each.  While I don't think the Rams will reach that number, they might get close.  They've scored 37, 36 and 31 in their last three games.

49ers (10-3) at Cardinals (3-10): San Francisco-Remember when the 49ers lost three straight in the middle of the season and people started freaking out?  Yeah, I think San Francisco is just fine.  So fine, in fact, that they're the first team in the playoffs.  They'll take care of the division by beating the Cardinals, but they'll need to keep winning if they want that No. 1 seed.  They have the tiebreaker on both NFC East teams, so the top seed is theirs to lose.

Cowboys (10-3) at Bills (7-6): Dallas-It's not an exaggeration to say the Bills saved their season last week.  Not only would they have dropped under .500 with a loss, they would've been behind a whole slew of teams.  As it is, they can now afford a loss here and still have a shot if they win out (which is very doable).  The question is which Dallas Cowboys team will show up.  They've been playing some outstanding football during their five-game winning streak, especially on the offensive end.  Can they keep it up on the road against a good Buffalo defense?

Ravens (10-3) at Jaguars (8-5): Baltimore-Baltimore seems to be the only AFC division leader that actually wants the 1-seed.  And the Ravens can go a long way towards locking it up on Sunday night in Jacksonville.  The Jaguars, meanwhile, need to careful.  Their division lead has all but disappeared, and they could find themselves in a tie with a loss here.  Unfortunately, I think that's the exact situation they'll find themselves in.  Because Baltimore's gonna do its thing again and move to 11-3.

Eagles (10-3) at Seahawks (6-7): Philadelphia-Dallas took over the division lead with that dominating performance on Sunday night, but the Eagles will win the NFC East if they win out.  Confused yet?  (It would essentially come down to Philadelphia's loss to the Jets, since then the Eagles would have a better conference record than Dallas).  Anyway, this is the end of their long, difficult stretch that has exposed their weaknesses.  And that two-game losing streak has seen them fall from No. 1 to No. 5.  Seattle is also concluding a brutal stretch that started on Thanksgiving night when the Seahawks were 6-4.  Three losses later, they're 6-7 and staring at a fourth.

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 6-9
Overall: 128-81