With the women's tournament, the NCAA spells pretty much everything out for us. They release top-16 seed lists during the season and now, with the Selection Show coming up on Monday night, they announced their list of the seven teams under consideration for the final four at-large bids. (That list was eight, but Princeton won the Ivy League's auto bid.) Four will get in, three will not.
Perhaps the most surprising name on that list was Tennessee. The first NCAA Tournament was held in 1982, and the Lady Vols have been in all 37 of them. The fact that we're even discussing them as a bubble team shows just how far this once-great program has fallen. They're probably safely in the field. Regardless, this season has to rank as a low point in the glorious history of Tennessee women's basketball.
The SEC champions, Mississippi State, meanwhile, look good to snag the fourth 1-seed behind Baylor (the presumed No. 1 overall), UConn and Notre Dame. It really came down to Mississippi State and Louisville. One won its conference tournament. The other didn't (and Louisville got crushed by Notre Dame in the ACC final).
Of course, there was very little difference between the fourth 1 and the top 2. Because that fourth 1-seed was getting shipped out to Portland, where the No. 2 seed will be Oregon. And the Ducks will have the dual advantages of the home crowd and significantly less travel. The No. 5 overall seed, meanwhile, (since they can't play Baylor) has to play UConn in Albany.
Much like the men's tournament, the top eight teams very clearly distinguished themselves. There shouldn't be any surprise over the 1's, and the other 2's will almost certainly be Stanford and Iowa. Really it's which 2 seed gets placed in which region that's the question. (Also, a note about the 1's. Baylor has to fly wherever they're going for the Regionals and Notre Dame can bus to Chicago, so that's why Baylor goes to Greensboro.)
One of the things that I find fascinating about this year's women's tournament, though, is how good the mid-major teams are. Gonzaga lost to BYU in the WCC final and will probably get an at-large bid. But we're also looking at potential at-larges for the regular season champs in the Missouri Valley (Drake) and Summit (South Dakota). And the MAC could very easily end up with three teams in the tournament if Ohio gets one of those last four bids.
I do think Ohio will be in the field, likely as the last team in. I'm giving that fourth bubble spot to Indiana. The Hoosiers' resume is simply too good to ignore. Five top-50 wins, including one over Iowa and one over Michigan State. Central Florida, meanwhile, shouldn't even be up for debate. They have six losses all year, and three of them are to UConn! (You'll notice that I gave them a 10-seed and the other three 11's.)
So, there really shouldn't be too many surprises when the bracket is revealed. Baylor will be the No. 1 overall seed, marking the first time since 2013 that it's not UConn (coincidentally, Baylor was also the No. 1 overall seed that year). This is also the first time since 2013 that nobody goes into the tournament undefeated.
What all that means is we've got a wide-open tournament. There are a handful of teams capable of winning a National Championship, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cinderella or two crash the ball. First there needs to be a field, though. And for that, here's what I've got...
GREENSBORO
16-Abilene Christian at 1-Baylor (1), 8-Clemson vs. 9-Michigan State
13-UC Davis at 4-Oregon State, 5-Missouri vs. 12-Boise State
14-Radford at 3-NC State, 6-Kentucky vs. 11-Ohio
15-Maine at 2-Iowa, 7-Drake vs. 10-Central Florida
PORTLAND
16-Southern at 1-Mississippi State (4), 8-California vs. 9-Central Michigan
13-Belmont at 4-Iowa State, 5-Florida State vs. 12-Florida Gulf Coast
14-Little Rock at 3-Miami, 6-South Dakota State vs. 11-Rice
15-Portland State at 2-Oregon, 7-Rutgers vs. 10-Princeton
ALBANY
16-Robert Morris at 1-Connecticut (2), 8-South Dakota vs. 9-Kansas State
13-Fordham at 4-Syracuse, 5-Arizona State vs. 12-Quinnipiac
14-Bucknell at 3-Maryland, 6-UCLA vs. 11-Tennessee
15-Mercer at 2-Louisville, 7-BYU vs. 10-Buffalo
CHICAGO
16-Bethune-Cookman at 1-Notre Dame (3), 8-Michigan vs. 9-Texas
13-Wright State at 4-Texas A&M, 5-Marquette vs. 12-Missouri State
3-South Carolina vs. 14-New Mexico State, 6-DePaul vs. 11-Indiana (*in Charlotte because South Carolina is hosting the men's tournament)
15-Towson at 2-Stanford, 7-Gonzaga vs. 10-North Carolina
Final Four: Greensboro vs. Portland, Albany vs. Chicago
Conference Breakdown: ACC (8), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), SEC (6), Big 12 (4), MAC (3), American (2), Big East (2), Missouri Valley (2), Summit (2), West Coast (2)
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